+1 for what lencap said.
I ended up ordering an SR and have a baby on the way. With childcare prices in Marin and a scientist salary, I chose the SR over a used LR, or even SR+ after weighing the overall package and the money saved. With my 8wk waiting time to mull over the details, I've come to realize some advantages of the SR in addition to the $10k+ in savings:
1. battery is a top end capped SR+ battery. you can charge to 90% or more and not worry about degradation. day to day, you're getting SR+ usability. most of my friends with model3's limit charging to 80% or something for everything but road trips. If you have an ICE vehicle for excursions into the unknown (second car is a subaru for us), you're good. If not, even road trips between towns/cities are not a big deal with the SR now getting the bump to 170kWh supercharging speeds. The supercharger network is a real nice safety net.
2. RWD as stated before. the AWD tugs a bit at the wheel. yes it's faster with a stopwatch, but the feel of the RWD is a bit lighter, more communicative IMO. In some cases you may get less understeer too. to each their own. some like the clawing front end grip of an AWD, and if you're an aggressive driver in rain or any driving in snow, AWD is obviously a huge help. But not essential if you have the right tires.
3. 400lb weight loss vs any LR setup. 3600lbs +/- with instant RWD torque, 50/50 weight distribution... throw some Pilot 4S's on there and I'm willing to bet an SR will canyon carve real nicely vs a LR AWD. The AWD models are all pushing over 4000lbs which is fairly portly. Modern cars are hiding weight quite well, but if you like spirited driving, you're going to notice 400lbs less weight!
4. connectivity features can now be added! I thought these were all just premium interior perks when I ordered, but now you can add them and gain features like the web browser for TeslaWaze, Spotify integration, etc. you're basically missing the immersive sound and subwoofer, the marginally-effective LED fog lights, and rear heated seats (which according to a recent Elon tweet might be available to activate as an option soon??).
I think you made a good call. you can always upgrade later on if you determine it's worth more money for you, but if you had started with the LR I can't imagine many folks would downgrade once it's in your driveway. It's probably better to have your own experience with the car and go from there.
My 2018 LR RWD Model 3 was delivered in mid November last year, 16k miles ago. The AWD version wasn’t available when I placed my order and I second guessed myself when it became available. After driving my car for a year I think the TWD LR is the sweet spot - a good balance of range and features. There may have been 2-3 days since I’ve owned the car that AWD would possibly be useful (NC gets some snow/ice), but after driving several AWD cars I FAR prefer the RWD feel. Overall I think the OP will enjoy it too. That’s one point for the SR - very enjoyable steering feel with RWD, combined with better efficiency.
if the SR+ was available I may have bought that instead. Living in a mid sized city there is a Supercharger pretty close to my home, and plenty of them on the routes I take most often - my range anxiety at purchase is totally gone after 16k miles without ever coming close to being worried about running out of juice. That’s two points for the SR - range anxiety in CA is likely to disappear given the large number of Tesla chargers, and now the likelihood of many of them upgraded to 250KW capacity. Even if the SR charges a bit slower than other versions, with faster charging most Superchargers will get faster turnover, reducing wait times if you do need to charge.
‘Let’s talk price - my LR RWD didn’t come with autopilot when I bought it. The list price was $49k, plus $1500 for the 19” wheels. I was fortunate to get the autopilot for $2000 when Tesla was a bit strapped for cash. I wouldn’t have ordered for the original $5,000. That feature is now standard in the SR+. Yes, I got a good tax credit, but even considering that the 2019 LR AWD similarly equipped is still less expensive than my RWD version. That’s three points for the SR - it has almost everything my car has and its over $10k less than my 2018 car was.
My point? Any model 3 is a great car, but if the OP believes that the SR+ meets his needs, he has a better built, likely version 3 motherboard car that is a far better value than anything else he could buy. If he wants to get an adrenaline rush from the performance M3, rent one from a Turo and use the money saved for a 529 plan for the kids.
Final thought - I’ve owned lots of “performance” cars over the years. Many were fun, some exceptional. But looking back on it now (I’m a senior citizen - very senior) if had to do it again I’d resist the siren song of performance that is rarely used and would invest the difference. YMMV.