Climate Change / Global Warming Discussion

[Swampgator]

Interesting thoughts from Judith Curry today:
All 3 natural climate drivers will trend towards cooling during the next 30 years.

https://judithcurry.com/2020/02/13/plausible-scenarios-for-climate-change-2020-2050/

 

[nwdiver]

It's Official: Atmospheric CO2 Just Exceeded 415 ppm For The First Time in Human History

 

[S'toon]

Interesting thoughts from Judith Curry today:
All 3 natural climate drivers will trend towards cooling during the next 30 years.

https://judithcurry.com/2020/02/13/plausible-scenarios-for-climate-change-2020-2050/

Judith Curry - RationalWiki

Judith Curry - SourceWatch

Judith Curry

Skeptical Science Search Results

 

[ggr]

Interesting thoughts from Judith Curry today:
All 3 natural climate drivers will trend towards cooling during the next 30 years.

Plausible scenarios for climate change: 2020-2050

You say "will", but one of them is volcanic activity. How does she know? Or how do you know? I claim BS.

 

[eevee-fan]

 

[winfield100]

Judith Curry - RationalWiki

Judith Curry - SourceWatch

Judith Curry

Skeptical Science Search Results

@s’toon
It is easy to tell her biases from paragraph 2 of her paper

””In the midst of all the angst about 1.5oC or 2.0oC warming or more, as defined relative to some mythical time when climate was alleged to be ‘stable’ and (relatively) uninfluenced by humans,””

she is easily dismissed virtually from the “get go”. (Beginning)

 

[Swampgator]

You say "will", but one of them is volcanic activity. How does she know? Or how do you know? I claim BS.

Dr Curry is a pretty reasonable person. Did you read the paper?

 

[winfield100]

Dr Curry is a pretty reasonable person. Did you read the paper?

Her bias leaks through in the 2nd paragraph.
She should wait for “conclusions” for that.
No, she does not come across as “pretty reasonable”
Yes I read the paper

 

[Swampgator]

Her bias leaks through in the 2nd paragraph.
She should wait for “conclusions” for that.
No, she does not come across as “pretty reasonable”
Yes I read the paper

Do you know anything about her? Bias? She used to be on your side you know? She has authored 188 peer reviewed papers and mostly agrees with the "consensus" You are yourself just too biased to accept any thoughts counter to your climate religious tenants.

 

[Swampgator]

Her bias leaks through in the 2nd paragraph

I think the reason for that is probably dealing with people like you for her whole career.

 

[Swampgator]

Her bias leaks through in the 2nd paragraph.
She should wait for “conclusions” for that.
No, she does not come across as “pretty reasonable”
Yes I read the paper

Do you discount Michael Mann for his bias?

 

[Swampgator]

You say "will", but one of them is volcanic activity. How does she know? Or how do you know? I claim BS.

She reference the Sigl paper from 2015. The past 100 years had among the lowest volcanic activity in the 2500 years of the chart. Are you betting on it remains that low for another 100 years?

 

[ggr]

She reference the Sigl paper from 2015. The past 100 years had among the lowest volcanic activity in the 2500 years of the chart. Are you betting on it remains that low for another 100 years?

"Reversion to the Mean" is one of the classical logical fallacies. I don't claim to know what is likely... she does.

 

[winfield100]

I think the reason for that is probably dealing with people like you for her whole career.

@Swampgator
Please explain explicitly what you mean by that?
Be specific as to my faults

 

[winfield100]

Do you discount Michael Mann for his bias?

Nope

 

[Swampgator]

@Swampgator
Please explain explicitly what you mean by that?
Be specific as to my faults

The answer to that question in seen in your reply below.

 

[Swampgator]

"Reversion to the Mean" is one of the classical logical fallacies. I don't claim to know what is likely... she does.

Did you read her paper? She lays out three different scenarios, one of which shows no increase in volcanic activity.
Why do you guys dismiss anything that posits the possibility of a better/less threatening road ahead? It's almost like you are in some weird echo chamber and are only happy when you see tales of doom.

 

[mspohr]

Blue Acceleration: Capitalism’s Growing Assault on the Oceans - Resilience

Called the Great Acceleration, the speed-up is driving what Earth System scientists describe as “the most rapid transformation of the human relationship with the natural world in the history of humankind.”[1] It marks the beginning of a new historical and geological epoch, the Anthropocene — a time when “human activities have become so pervasive and profound that they rival the great forces of nature and are pushing the Earth into planetary terra incognita.”[2]

Long ago, Marx and Engels showed that capitalism can never stand still or rest content in one place. In obedience to its first commandment — Accumulate, accumulate! — “it must nestle everywhere, settle everywhere, establish connections everywhere.”[3] So it is not surprising that the trends identified in great acceleration research haven’t just continued, they have continued to accelerate. Capital, never content with expanding existing operations, constantly seeks new places and resources to exploit.

 

[mspohr]

The Irreversible Emissions of a Permafrost ‘Tipping Point’ - Resilience

Across vast swaths of the northern hemisphere’s higher reaches, frozen ground holds billions of tonnes of carbon.


As global temperatures rise, this “permafrost” land is at increasing risk of thawing out, potentially releasing its long-held carbon into the atmosphere.


Abrupt permafrost thaw is one of the most frequently discussed “tipping points” that could be crossed in a warming world. However, research suggests that, while this thawing is already underway, it can be slowed with climate change mitigation.


Yet, what is irreversible is the escape of the carbon that has been – and is being – emitted. The carbon released from permafrost goes into the atmosphere and stays there, exacerbating global warming.


In short, what happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic.

 

[S'toon]

A really simple guide to climate change