Competing technologies to BEV

[pz1975]

Tesla Motors Inc vs. BMWs i-brand: Tech vs. Weight

Joke of an article from Barclay's claiming that BMW poses a threat to Tesla for EV sales in the near and medium term. They fail to mention (other than in their chart) that the i3 has crap performance and the i8 is a grossly overpriced hybrid. They also state that demand for the Model S has plateaued in the US and Norway (wow!).

The comments below the article are way more factually correct and compelling to read than the article by these so-called 'experts'.

 

[PonoBill]

I wonder if the coal gasification numbers include the full cycle (ie--CO2 from the gasification process) or just the generation. And as always, there numbers rarely include all the other CO2 generation associated with extraction, transportation, construction, life cycle. The justification is that they are all similar so don't matter, but they probably aren't.

 

[Auzie]

Tesla Motors Inc vs. BMWs i-brand: Tech vs. Weight

Joke of an article from Barclay's claiming that BMW poses a threat to Tesla for EV sales in the near and medium term. They fail to mention (other than in their chart) that the i3 has crap performance and the i8 is a grossly overpriced hybrid. They also state that demand for the Model S has plateaued in the US and Norway (wow!).

The comments below the article are way more factually correct and compelling to read than the article by these so-called 'experts'.

The better fitting title to the article might be: "Tesla leaves BMW in the dust":wink:

 

[Julian Cox]

Updated Hydrogen Blog Post.

This would be much appreciated. My wife runs Environmental Tax Reform-Massachusetts (ETR-MA), and is heavily involved in the Climate Change League (CCL) as well as related endeavors. These organizations are focused on implementing carbon pricing, typically via a mechanism that collects carbon fees at production points and rebates all the money collected back to the taxpayers -- revenue neutral from the standpoint of government. She regularly engages with staff, Representatives and Senators in the Massachusetts State House... and the ETR and CCL web spreads out across many states. Following the math will not be the strong suit of most of these folks. But I'd like to be able to distribute something to her teams as well as others I encounter. So something short, tuned to the activist masses, and perhaps backed up with an appendix that details your calculations would be MOST WELCOME.

THANK YOU!

Alan

Alan

I have updated the blog with something I hope will be much more useful. Auto Industry Playing Dirty With Hydrogen, Time to Come Clean - Blogs - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum

 

[Pollux]

Sweet! Thanks!

Alan

I have updated the blog with something I hope will be much more useful. Auto Industry Playing Dirty With Hydrogen, Time to Come Clean - Blogs - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum

View attachment 50703

 

[Auzie]

Hybrids marching into the future

The Subaru XV Crosstrek Hybrid won't save much green

The EPA rates the standard model's fuel economy average at 28 mpg.

This hybrid gets 31 mpg, test driving results in 27 mpg.

Gas only Crosstrek power is 148 hp, hybrid ups that to 160 hp.

There is very little to differentiate this hybrid from gas only version.

Points of difference:

$3,000 extra in price
300 lb extra in weight
12 hp extra power

My thoughts: Why bother?

 

[Auzie]

Competition searching for best strategy

The billion $ bet of the auto industry

Very interesting article in a German newspaper, about the German car makers. I used Google translate so there may be incomplete or incorrect understandings. Here are few relevant tid bits:

European Commission imposes drastic carbon dioxide emissions reductions on European car makers fleets.

Car makers are aware that it means going away from gasoline. The chosen strategy of car makers such as Volkswagen (Audi parent), BMW and Daimler is expected to cost billions of $, and it is important to choose the correct strategy.

BMW is seeing poor sales of their i3. German gov wants 1 mill of electric cars by 2020. Last year, there were 6300 electric cars registered in Germany.

Audi is betting on plug in hybrids.

Daimler made some electric cars but only for Chinese market, with BYD.

The car makers dilemma is simple: make money with ice cars or make cars for the future. "The companies have to invest billions and explain to their shareholders why this is worth it all. Somehow, the old world of big petrol engines is easier."

 

[evme]

Just looking at fuel cell car costs and according to here:

Toyota to go hydrogen in December | The Japan Times

Toyota will charge 80k per car when it comes out and plans to lower to 30-50k some time in the 2020s. So yeah, a non-luxury branded car for 80k?

It is going to be a hard sell competing against the Tesla Model (T)E.

 

[jerry33]

Just looking at fuel cell car costs and according to here:

Toyota to go hydrogen in December | The Japan Times

Toyota will charge 80k per car when it comes out and plans to lower to 30-50k some time in the 2020s. So yeah, a non-luxury branded car for 80k?

It is going to be a hard sell competing against the Tesla Model (T)E.

I don't think they are really trying for large sales numbers, they are just trying to put something out that will keep people purchasing their gas cars. It's a losing strategy in the long run but it will likely work in the short term.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Well today I was at a sustainable future and Estonian startups event talking about Tesla and the gigafactory and there was present the CEO of SkeletonTech (Skeleton Technologies | Skeleton Technologies homepage). They make supercapacitors and are building up the manufacturing. Their current generation cells (3rd gen) were launched in May and they pack twice the energy density as compared to current market leaders. They also supply the cells to European Space Agency as well as big name car manufacturers like BMW etc. However the cells being top of the line right now pack 10Wh/kg.

During the discussions with the CEO he mentioned that Tesla did indeed contact them and asked when they could have 200Wh/kg cells, they answered likely never. And they are using carbon nanostructure materials that are developed and engineered in Estonian universities with loads of patents etc and do have the highest density (they can fit the same energy in a 4-5x smaller volume and mass than the current market leaders).

So from this I'd say that pure capacitor based cars are very very far off. Marriage of capacitors + LiIon batteries though can deliver a lot of kW power in an instant even from a small pack so smaller pack cars could have capacitor buffers.

 

[kenliles]

Well today I was at a sustainable future and Estonian startups event talking about Tesla and the gigafactory and there was present the CEO of SkeletonTech (Skeleton Technologies | Skeleton Technologies homepage). They make supercapacitors and are building up the manufacturing. Their current generation cells (3rd gen) were launched in May and they pack twice the energy density as compared to current market leaders. They also supply the cells to European Space Agency as well as big name car manufacturers like BMW etc. However the cells being top of the line right now pack 10Wh/kg.

During the discussions with the CEO he mentioned that Tesla did indeed contact them and asked when they could have 200Wh/kg cells, they answered likely never. And they are using carbon nanostructure materials that are developed and engineered in Estonian universities with loads of patents etc and do have the highest density (they can fit the same energy in a 4-5x smaller volume and mass than the current market leaders).

So from this I'd say that pure capacitor based cars are very very far off. Marriage of capacitors + LiIon batteries though can deliver a lot of kW power in an instant even from a small pack so smaller pack cars could have capacitor buffers.

excellent review- thanks Mario; good to see Tesla is on top of that tech- not surprising given Elon's work there too

 

[Auzie]

Car that outsmarts speed cameras

http://www.drive.com.au/motor-news/the-car-that-outsmarts-speed-cameras-20140625-zskpl.html
The Genesis, a luxury Hyundai sedan designed to be a cut price alternative to models sold by BMW andMercedes-Benz, features a suite of high-tech driver aids that include an active cruise control system that will apply the brakes to maintain a safe distance to the car in front.

The car is capable of outsmarting speed cameras with a combination of GPS and braking technology.

It knows there is a speed camera there, it knows where the speed camera is and it will adopt the correct speed.
It will beep 800 metres before a camera and show the legal speed, and it will beep at you if your speed is over that.

Great, all cars need to have these smart systems.

 

[green1]

Won't work here... our speed cameras are in mobile vehicles that park in different places every day...

 

[TEG]

Well today I was at a sustainable future and Estonian startups event talking about Tesla and the gigafactory...

In case you (somehow) didn't know, Steve Jurvetson, Model S owner #1, and Tesla board member has strong ties to Estonia...
Video: Learning in Silicon Valley – Estonian experience - Estonian World
Event - innovative Estonia the Skype Phenomenon Silicon Vikings

 

[Auzie]

Won't work here... our speed cameras are in mobile vehicles that park in different places every day...

Well you are lucky. If you only have mobile ones than you have very few of them.

We have them everywhere, often integrated with traffic lights.

The worst ones are the fixed cameras which are strategically placed to trap people. These traps are when speed limit changes for no obvious reason, on a straight stretch of the road. Drivers go with the flow and they get caught by the camera, unless they are familiar with the specific location.

The other easy trap are school zones. These zones have different speed limits for different hours and on different week days, so drivers must be conscious of the time of day. I was caught few times on a stretch of the road that I drive on every day but early in the morning. On my day off I drove the same stretch during school hours. My driving habits take over and hence cameras got me.

The smart system that knows the position of speed cameras and adjusts the car speed accordingly would be very popular in cities, with large number of speed cameras. It would be a hot seller as it easily pays off for itself.

 

[green1]

oh trust me, they know where to park, same types of places you describe, but they also get construction zones (even ones with no signs of construction... grrrrrrr) there's a small fleet of them, it gets to the point that any time you see any vehicle of any form parked on the side of a major road (could just be a normal stall or break down) everyone slams on the brakes, they're a hazard!
They have actually just added a few at intersections too though (we have about 40 red light cameras now that double as speed cameras)

 

[FluxCap]

Adam Jonas slams the door on FCV as the diversionary tactic that our friend Julian has written so well about here:

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014 - Page 523

 

[scaesare]

Won't work here... our speed cameras are in mobile vehicles that park in different places every day...

If Waze can report accidents and police activity in real time, then mobile speed cameras are no problem...

 

[Robert.Boston]

​Moderator's Note - Let's not wander too far off into the world of speed traps here, please.

 

[pGo]

Any idea if 2015 Hyundai Tucson FC solution without using compressed air for oxygen intake is an incremental solution or a game changer? Check FAQ for the details.

2015 Hyundai Tucson Fuel Cell | Hydrogen-Powered Vehicle | Hyundai

The lease of Tucson is impressive. However, not sure the actual cost and general availability. Does any know the cost of the core FC technology in vehicles? I read this morning the MS note, but I just don't want to be sleeping with that in mind.