Competing technologies to BEV

[ecarfan]

My take away from 'official' BMW statement 'they have no technology we are interested in' is that BMW is not interested in cars propelled by AC motor only. They most likely plan to stick with various hybrids.

Sadly this seems to be true. First BMW built an i3 with a heavily promoted "range extender" ICE, than an i8 with a mandatory ICE and a pitifully small battery, and now there are rumors about an i5 that is really just a high-powered hybrid.

The only company that seems partway serious about EVs is Nissan but they have not significantly improved the Leaf in years, have still not come out with a truly long range EV model and have done nothing to build a useful EV charging network.

It is going to take the success of the Tesla Model 3 to get the other car companies off their lazy asses and build a compelling EV.

 

[Auzie]

Sadly this seems to be true. First BMW built an i3 with a heavily promoted "range extender" ICE, than an i8 with a mandatory ICE and a pitifully small battery, and now there are rumors about an i5 that is really just a high-powered hybrid.

The only company that seems partway serious about EVs is Nissan but they have not significantly improved the Leaf in years, have still not come out with a truly long range EV model and have done nothing to build a useful EV charging network.

It is going to take the success of the Tesla Model 3 to get the other car companies off their lazy asses and build a compelling EV.

Agree with you that it might take model 3 to push for a change. I will not be surprised if even after model 3 extreme success they all keep dragging their feet.

My view is that other car makers are not going down that road yet because it is not in their self-interest to speed up the change which will eat up at their profits.

 

[Peter_M]

Agree with you that it might take model 3 to push for a change. I will not be surprised if even after model 3 extreme success they all keep dragging their feet.

My view is that other car makers are not going down that road yet because it is not in their self-interest to speed up the change which will eat up at their profits.

Absolutely agree. All of the major automakers are facing the Innovator's Dilemma and most of them will end up out of business as a result in the long run. This will be the biggest industry "handover" ever, from the current generation of companies to a new generation that is starting with Tesla. As you say, they probably know this is where things are going if and when consumers opt for electric cars in a big way, so their only hope is to keep trying to kill or delay adoption. But the advantages are just too great, and growing, and it's a free market in the long run, so the clock is ticking for them. It will take very brave and visionary leaders in the current companies to see what's happening soon enough and do the right thing to save their companies. So far, they are just hoping it's all a dream...

 

[William13]

+1 Auzie

 

[blakegallagher]

Absolutely agree. All of the major automakers are facing the Innovator's Dilemma and most of them will end up out of business as a result in the long run. This will be the biggest industry "handover" ever, from the current generation of companies to a new generation that is starting with Tesla. As you say, they probably know this is where things are going if and when consumers opt for electric cars in a big way, so their only hope is to keep trying to kill or delay adoption. But the advantages are just too great, and growing, and it's a free market in the long run, so the clock is ticking for them. It will take very brave and visionary leaders in the current companies to see what's happening soon enough and do the right thing to save their companies. So far, they are just hoping it's all a dream...

I agree. I often wonder if Tesla's real threat comes from another startup Car company. Or another software/tech companies that decides to build great electric cars. At the pace that batteries are dropping the only technology that will be competing with BEV's will be something that is way off my radar. I just don't see anything that will work half as good and in another couple decades the electric cars/drivetrains will be so good that changing them will not be a priority.

Maybe hyperloop pods as that system gets built out, Or Teleportation watches I suppose.

 

[Auzie]

Blue Planet Strategy

Blue Ocean Strategy is a book published in 2005.

Based on a study of 150 strategic moves spanning more than a hundred years and thirty industries, Kim & Mauborgne argue that companies can succeed not by battling competitors, but rather by creating ″blue oceans″ of uncontested market space. They assert that these strategic moves create a leap in value for the company, its buyers, and its employees, while unlocking new demand and making the competition irrelevant. The book presents analytical frameworks and tools to foster organization's ability to systematically create and capture blue oceans.[SUP][1][/SUP]

Competition is leaving the whole planet to Tesla, uncontested.

 

[HansWurst]

Blue Ocean Strategy is a book published in 2005.

Competition is leaving the whole planet to Tesla, uncontested.

Thanks Auzie, sounds interesting, added it to my wish list for christmas ;-)

Auf Wiedersehen!

 

[ggr]

I'll go for a Tesla because it has so many other advantages, but I won't get rid of the second ICE vehicle, because otherwise there are places I go now where I simply won't be able to go. (and not "will take longer while I charge", will not be able to go at all as no electricity exists period, no gas stations either, but with a gas car having double the range of an S85 it's not a problem)

When we bought the Roadster, we kept the gas guzzler for those times when we needed the extra seats or for road trips. The poor gas car hardly ever got used. So we sold it at the same time as we got the Model S (over two years ago now). Today was the first time we had to rent a car to do a trip that we couldn't (reasonably) do in the Model S. It was a there-and-back-again in limited time to El Centro. In a few weeks or a few months, when the Supercharger there comes online, even that trip will be no problem.

 

[Zapped]

When we bought the Roadster, we kept the gas guzzler for those times when we needed the extra seats or for road trips. The poor gas car hardly ever got used. So we sold it at the same time as we got the Model S (over two years ago now). Today was the first time we had to rent a car to do a trip that we couldn't (reasonably) do in the Model S. It was a there-and-back-again in limited time to El Centro. In a few weeks or a few months, when the Supercharger there comes online, even that trip will be no problem.

95% of the time I drive less than 60 miles a day. When you buy a FIAT 500e you also get 12 free car rental days /year for a 3 year period. I think that's a great way to deal with those times you need to make a long road trip.
I know it doesn't work for everyone but I believe the stats are 85% of driving is less than 40 miles / day. Our family has both Model S and 500e and we can rent until the supercharges are on route

 

[Red Sage]

A lot of people are still stuck on the notion that any car must be able to be re-fueled in the same amount of time as a gasoline car.

Absolutely. JB Straubel is apparently investigating a means to manage that within the coming decade. I expect that it will involve having both faster Superchargers and much higher battery capacity. Once a 170 kWh to 220 kWh battery pack is available any hint of range anxiety will be long gone. And as the energy density increases, weight goes down, and the batteries become more affordable, many criticisms of battery electric vehicles will fade away.

Very disappointing editorial. The NYT editorial board doesn't fully understand the many negatives of FCVs.

I've decided not to bother reading NYT, LAT, or SA articles about Tesla Motors, or any other subject. I will risk FOOL, WSJ, and Bloomberg from time-to-time. TheStreet is pure comedy.

However, I have come to the conclusion that over the next five years Tesla will so thoroughly and convincingly demonstrate the obvious superiority of EVs over FCVs for personal transport that EVs will emerge the winner in that competition.

I typically refer to Tesla Motors as either:

1) The Carrot and the Stick -- Tesla Motors is happy to act as a guide to the traditional automobile manufacturers to show them how to pursue a future with electric vehicles. And they don't have a problem offering a bit of motivation by kicking their butts with mind numbing performance.

2) The Little Red Hen -- Tesla Motors is more than ready to work with traditional automobile manufacturers to gain assistance in growing the presence of electric vehicles in the worldwide marketplace. But if no one wants to help, Tesla will simply do it all themselves.
​

My take away from 'official' BMW statement 'they have no technology we are interested in' is that BMW is not interested in cars propelled by AC motor only. They most likely plan to stick with various hybrids.

Correct. I believe that each company that approaches Tesla Motors does so to find out what they are really about... and they are surprised, every time, to learn Elon Musk is absolutely sincere. There are certain points that Tesla Motors will not concede, will not make concessions over, and will not give up on: No hybrids. No fuel cells. No short-range electric cars.

Traditional automobile manufacturers find Tesla Motors' position to be unreasonable. Some of them part ways amicably, like Mercedes-Benz and Toyota. BMW has chosen to go another route, and may well learn some day that was a mistake.

I agree. I often wonder if Tesla's real threat comes from another startup Car company. Or another software/tech companies that decides to build great electric cars.

Tesla Motors would rather have 10% of an Electric Vehicle Industry that is responsible for 30% or more of all new vehicles sold worldwide, than have 100% of an EV Industry that controls only 1% of annual new vehicle sales. I think they made their patents open on the good faith notion that there would be a likewise sharing of technology if someone else were able to come up with a solution that Tesla hadn't found themselves. Tesla wants to foster the growth of the EV Industry, parallel to the traditional automobile industry, while usurping the infrastructure of the past.

 

[Auzie]

Mercedes developing Tesla competitive ev

Mercedes is developing AWD 537HP S class EV on a special modular exoluxe platform intended for two body sizes and four styles, projected for release in 2019.

Autobild reports a 16.4-foot (5 meter) long five-and seven passenger “Sports Utility Coupe” S model will have a rounded-up 537 horsepower – 402.4 horsepower rear and 134.2 front; a GT model is said to be getting 402.4 horsepower rear, 201.2 horsepower front (604 total).
The vehicles as envisioned will utilize four-wheel steering, and the platform enables a wide range of wheelbases.

Autobild reports range of at least 279 miles, so undoubtedly the engineers at M-B know they are trying to stay current even while developing against what is only now high tech but due to improve.Case in point: In a tweet Christmas day saying the Roadster is getting an almost 400-mile range battery, Tesla CEO Elon Musk followed up saying the Model S “obviously” will get a battery upgrade too in due time.
But again, Mercedes-Benz knows all this, and it appears the proud German luxury car maker, which has said it would not let Tesla run ahead forever may be keeping its promise, although this was not stated specifically in the report.
Tesla has however said it wants to provoke followers, and it may be getting its wish.

Last April in New York, wrath against Mercedes-Benz followed when M-B USA head Steve Cannon said Tesla is making headway largely on transitory cool factor, and its potential is limited.
“Tesla is great, but you’ve got plenty of well-established brands that mean luxury, like Porsche or Mercedes-Benz, and how long do you think we’re going to wait and let Tesla be out there alone [selling premium electric cars]?” he said. “So, good job, Tesla, but will they be able to maintain that with the others of us out in the market? That remains to be seen.”

It seems to me that MB chosen timing is signalling their evaluation of when Tesla's technology might start to become a market force to be considered.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Sadly this seems to be true. First BMW built an i3 with a heavily promoted "range extender" ICE, than an i8 with a mandatory ICE and a pitifully small battery, and now there are rumors about an i5 that is really just a high-powered hybrid.

The only company that seems partway serious about EVs is Nissan but they have not significantly improved the Leaf in years, have still not come out with a truly long range EV model and have done nothing to build a useful EV charging network.

It is going to take the success of the Tesla Model 3 to get the other car companies off their lazy asses and build a compelling EV.

The manufacturers aren't being lazy. They work hard to make money and they won't hurt their margins unless they have to. They need to see a path to the money and then follow it.

 

[32no]

Overview: Life cycle air quality impacts of conventional and alternative light-duty transportation in the United States
PDF: Life cycle air quality impacts of conventional and alternative light-duty transportation in the United States

Did we discuss this pollution report? It seems quite flawed to me.

"We find that powering vehicles with corn ethanol or with coal-based or “grid average” electricity increases monetized environmental health impacts by 80% or more relative to using conventional gasoline"

So let me get this straight: powering an electric vehicle with the grid average electricity pollutes 80% more than just the tailpipe of an ICE? First of all, that sounds way too high (is it a cooked up number?). Second, what about extracting, refining, and transporting oil, why not include that?

Also, this is the image in the report:

So let me get this straight: they are comparing 2005 pollution (including from gasoline ICEs) to what would supposedly be added by 2020? If Electric cars replace gasoline cars, then why would you add the electric car pollution to the previous gasoline car pollution?

Anyway, this is a report from November of this year that is now being cited far too often as proof that electric vehicles aren't the solution to our environmental problems. To me, it seems like it creates more questions than it answers, and doesn't provide enough information. I am skeptical and curious to hear what you guys think.

 

[CalDreamin]

Overview: Life cycle air quality impacts of conventional and alternative light-duty transportation in the United States
PDF: Life cycle air quality impacts of conventional and alternative light-duty transportation in the United States

Did we discuss this pollution report? It seems quite flawed to me.

The bottom line from the study is that coal-sourced electricity is (on average) still filthy even though the U.S. has spent decades implementing technologies to substantially reduce pollution from coal power plants. These are pollutants that directly cause harm to human health.

The study also finds that

"EVs powered by low-emitting electricity from natural gas, wind, water, or solar power reduce environmental health impacts by 50% or more [compared to ICE vehicles]."

EVs use a very tiny percentage of coal-sourced electricity. The vast majority of coal-sourced electricity powers a wide range industrial, commercial, and residential applications. In my opinion the more important message from the study is that all of us should redouble our efforts to eliminate coal power.

 

[Zapped]

EVs use a very tiny percentage of coal-sourced electricity. The vast majority of coal-sourced electricity powers a wide range industrial, commercial, and residential applications. In my opinion the more important message from the study is that all of us should redouble our efforts to eliminate coal power.

Was is the cause grey cloud over our cities and where we live ?
One would think the poisonous gases produced by gas vehicles is the major contributor to the smog and health issues in our urban centers.
Certainly coal fire power plants are a huge problem but if we can reduce the pollution we produce at ground level in our direct living space, I would expect the EV would be a significant part of the solution.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Overview: Life cycle air quality impacts of conventional and alternative light-duty transportation in the United States
PDF: Life cycle air quality impacts of conventional and alternative light-duty transportation in the United States

Did we discuss this pollution report? It seems quite flawed to me.



So let me get this straight: powering an electric vehicle with the grid average electricity pollutes 80% more than just the tailpipe of an ICE? First of all, that sounds way too high (is it a cooked up number?). Second, what about extracting, refining, and transporting oil, why not include that?

Also, this is the image in the report:
View attachment 67139
So let me get this straight: they are comparing 2005 pollution (including from gasoline ICEs) to what would supposedly be added by 2020? If Electric cars replace gasoline cars, then why would you add the electric car pollution to the previous gasoline car pollution?

Anyway, this is a report from November of this year that is now being cited far too often as proof that electric vehicles aren't the solution to our environmental problems. To me, it seems like it creates more questions than it answers, and doesn't provide enough information. I am skeptical and curious to hear what you guys think.

I skimmed through the report and have the following comments to questions mentioned in your report and interpretation of the results:

1. So let me get this straight: powering an electric vehicle with the grid average electricity pollutes 80% more than just the tailpipe of an ICE?
   Just to clarify, it is necessary to define the subject of this Report. It addresses non-GHG air pollution only:
   

   Society is in the midst of a great effort to understand and mitigate anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their effects on the global climate (1–5). However, GHG damages are not the only environmental impact of human activities, and are often not even the largest. In transportation, for example, non-GHG air pollution damage externalities generally exceed those from climate change (6–8). Here, we explore the air quality impacts of several proposed transportation fuel interventions: liquid biofuels (9), electric vehicles (EVs) powered by conventional and alternative energy sources (3), biomass feedstocks to power EVs (10, 11), compressed natural gas (CNG) powered vehicles (5), and improved vehicle fuel economy.

2. what about extracting, refining, and transporting oil, why not include that?
   The report does include life cycle analysis that includes total fuel supply chain (non-GHG emissions only). However, some emissions from the fuel life cycle are excluded from the analysis because they occur outside of the spacial model used in the study (US)
   

   We use a spatially and temporally explicit life cycle inventory model (22) to estimate total fuel supply chain air pollutant emissions for scenarios where 10% of US projected vehicle miles traveled in year 2020

   For scenarios other than battery production, in most cases more than 90% of emissions occur inside the spatial modeling domain (Fig. S2). A fraction (30–45%) of SOx and NOx emissions from the petroleum scenarios (gasoline, gasoline hybrid, and diesel) are also excluded from the analysis, but because the excluded emissions are mainly from the extraction of crude oil (1), which largely occurs over the open ocean or far from population centers, their exclusion is not likely to impact our overall conclusions.

3. So let me get this straight: they are comparing 2005 pollution (including from gasoline ICEs) to what would supposedly be added by 2020? If Electric cars replace gasoline cars, then why would you add the electric car pollution to the previous gasoline car pollution?
   The charts that you are referring to do not add electric car non-GHG pollution to the previous gasoline polution, they show increase in concentration above the baseline attributable to replacement of 10% of year 2020 vehicle use with the given technology, as explained in the text under the chart that you posted
4. It looks like the major error, IMO, is in interpretation of the results. It seems that you are not considering that virtually all coal power plants are part of the base load portion of the electricity production. Since charging of electrical vehicles is unlikely to add any demand to base load production, the electricity used for this charging will come not from the "EV Coal", and not from the "EV Grid Average", but almost 100% from "EV Natural Gas" and perhaps, to a lesser extent from "EV WWS", as great majority of peak load is covered by natural gas units. A cursory look at "EV Natural Gas" (J) or "EV WWS" (L) shows that their impact on non-GHG pollution is LESS than "Gasoline" (B) or "Gasoline Hybrid" (C)

So my conclusion is that this study is yet again demonstrates that use of pure EVs has non-GHG pollution impact that is LESS than that of vehicles containing ICE.

 

[CalDreamin]

Was is the cause grey cloud over our cities and where we live ?

I have no idea in your case. Where I live, most wintertime air pollution is caused by burning wood in stoves and fireplaces.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Mercedes is developing AWD 537HP S class EV on a special modular exoluxe platform intended for two body sizes and four styles, projected for release in 2019.

It seems to me that MB chosen timing is signalling their evaluation of when Tesla's technology might start to become a market force to be considered.

I think that if MB considers that Tesla's technology might become a market force to be considered, their management is delusional. They have a huge amount of work to do, just to catch up to Tesla in the core technology. Their advantage in "traditional luxury" will not carry them too far...

For those looking at the picture of a half million dollar Mercedes SLS AMG electric, I have a few tough questions which, I am sure, the self-confident MB executives will have a very hard time answering:

1. How come Tesla Model S P85D, which seats 5+2, weighs 289 lb more (4936 vs. 4647), is 14" longer and 5 inches wider and has two motors less than MB, beats this two seats sports car 0-100km/h by 0.5 s (3.4 vs. 3.9)??
   Oh, I also forgot to mention that the MB sports car costs almost four times more than P85D... The P85D is also quicker in spite of MB having more horsepower and torque: 740 vs. 691hp, 738 vs. 687lb-ft.
2. The MB SLS has 1208 lb, 60kWh battery pack, while P85D has 1323 lb, 85kWh pack. Based on this Tesla's battery pack has almost 30% higher energy density than the pack in SLS... ??

I hope that MB executives realize just how much of a catch-up they need to do...

2013 Tesla Model S Test - Review - Car and Driver

2014 Mercedes-Benz SLS AMG Electric Drive Photos and Info Car and Driver

Mercedes SLS Electric Drive (2013) CAR review | Road Testing Reviews | Car Magazine Online


Tesla Model S P85D: Dual motors, AWD, 691 hp, 3.2 to 60

Model S Design Studio | Tesla Motors

 

[Auzie]

I think that if MB considers that Tesla's technology might become a market force to be considered, their management is delusional. They have a huge amount of work to do, just to catch up to Tesla in the core technology. Their advantage in "traditional luxury" will not carry them too far...

For those looking at the picture of a half million dollar Mercedes SLS AMG electric, I have a few tough questions which, I am sure, the self-confident MB executives will have a very hard time answering:

1. How come Tesla Model S P85D, which seats 5+2, weighs 289 lb more (4936 vs. 4647), is 14" longer and 5 inches wider and has two motors less than MB, beats a two seats sports car 0-100km/h by 0.5 s (3.4 vs. 3.9)??
   Oh, I also forgot to mention that the MB sports car costs almost four times more than P85D... The P85D is also quicker in spite of MB having more horsepower and torque: 740 vs. 691hp, 738 vs. 687lb-ft.
2. The MB SLS has 1208 lb, 60kWh battery pack, while P85D has 1323 lb, 85kWh pack. Based on this Tesla's battery pack has almost 30% higher energy density than the pack in SLS... ??

I hope that MB executives realize just how much of a catch-up they need to do...

2013 Tesla Model S Test - Review - Car and Driver

2014 Mercedes-Benz SLS AMG Electric Drive Photos and Info Car and Driver

Mercedes SLS Electric Drive (2013) CAR review | Road Testing Reviews | Car Magazine Online


Tesla Model S P85D: Dual motors, AWD, 691 hp, 3.2 to 60

Model S Design Studio | Tesla Motors

I could be wrong, but my impression is that MB execs are moved by the hurt pride rather than by concerns over Tesla's advantage. It is easy to deny Tesla's technological advantage but it seems to be harder to deny the hype that Tesla brand is causing. That must hurt like hell, being dethroned by a bev newcomer who lacks tradition and knowledge of making cars.

 

[RobStark]

Believed to be Mercedes Benz electric test mule.