Coronavirus

[madodel]

‘How I got Germany’s new digital CovPass with my US vaccination certificate’

A US citizen residing in Germany who got vaccinated in the US finally got a German COVID digital pass after trying at 6 different pharmacies. Some didn't recognize the CDC card as a valid proof and one didn't understand that Pfizer is the Pfizer Biontech vaccine that was developed and approved in Germany. Looking at my CDC card the pharmacy didn't fill in their complete name and gave no phone number or other contact. I made a label with the full name of the pharmacy and their phone number and stuck it on the card. We hope to go to Europe in September to see our daughter. Hopefully this is straightened out by then. And hopefully there is no new wave spiking in the Fall that closes everything down again.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Interestingly awful results from the CureVac vaccine (which is very unfortunate); 47% efficacy. Here's some speculation about why, and why Katalin Kariko might have had her Nobel chances improved by this result:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1405292468208238594

Once again, very lucky to have had two excellent mRNA vaccines first in the US. What would the story have been on mRNA if the first story had been CureVac, one wonders...

It turns out mRNA is actually very complicated (shocking, I know) and you can't just stick whatever into the cell and expect it to get translated & expressed.

And for those asking, further explanation in response to this tweet:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1405271291565731841

 

[eevee-fan]

Well, seeing less and less people with masks now. Good thing our vaccination rate is ok. Would be better, though, if we are above 70%, esp being a tourist destination.

 

[JRP3]

We're mostly mask free here now and we've had 4 days in a row with zero reported cases for the county, (Tompkins).

 

[shinytop]

In Florida our Trumpist governor has restricted local governments from imposing any restrictions based on Covid. He has outlawed the use of vaccine "passports" so businesses can protect their employees and customers. Yet Florida has the 3rd highest death rate in the country. Has only 42% vaccine rate with some counties at less than 30%.

To give you an idea of his priorities he has signed laws to restrict votes and has sent Floridians (I think National Guard) to help with border security in the west.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Yet Florida has the 3rd highest death rate in the country. Has only 42% vaccine rate with some counties at less than 30%.

Don't underestimate the protective impact of natural immunity. It's not as good as vaccination, but it is still pretty good! Comes with significant costs though, as you say.

Fortunately Delta seems to have less immune escape capability than other variants. So that can rip through the remaining vulnerable without reinfecting too many people (maybe only 15% reinfection probability if exposed?). It's very contagious, so will outstrip the variants with more immune escape like the South African one, and make those less likely to grow in future (since infections by other variants does provide some immunity to immune escape variants). Hooray!

So probably it will be fine. I'm definitely not sure, and the winter will be very tricky and will depend on vaccination progress in the interim (it cannot be predicted currently). But overall I'm still optimistic.

Definitely nationwide, R is starting to go up again (though it is still below 1). We'll see how that goes as full reopening goes forward.

It's frustrating that with the extremely low number of cases that we can't get a good handle on community transmission vs. imports. It seems like at this point we should maximize our test & trace capabilities and stamp this thing out. 10,000 cases a day just isn't that many to contact trace, and contact tracing & quarantine is easier if you can focus on only the unvaccinated exposed. That means there are maybe only ~100,000 people wandering around with COVID who haven't been identified as such...we just need to find them all!

It's almost like we don't want to bring COVID cases to zero. It seems like that should be the goal, even if in practice it cannot be quite achieved...

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

This MMWR is a week old, but this shows how well vaccines work. A nice study because they tested people regularly so no asymptomatic cases were missed. Note that it can be simultaneously true that vaccines work, and don't always work.

As we all know, they "work" (especially the ones we have) because if enough people get vaccinated, they have basically 100% efficacy (because there is no virus). But before getting to that point, you'll only have about 90% protection (maybe a little more) against infection (and any infection you do get will tend to be more mild). But you could still die of COVID - your risks are just reduced dramatically. So, still good to find compassionate ways to convince people you know who are hesitant to get vaccinated. Getting vaccinated also protects those who are unvaccinated. I hope the federal government finds a way to work with the states that are struggling, to get their populations better protected.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1402610377087610880

Personally, I'm continuing to exercise caution and wear a mask in indoor locations where I do not know people's vaccination status, until cases really drop (we're at around 50 a day in a county with population of 3+ million).

CDC Announces It Kind Of Embarrassing To Get Coronavirus This Late In Pandemic

ATLANTA—Stressing that no normal person would even do such a thing at this stage in the ongoing crisis, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Wednesday that, frankly, it was kind of embarrassing to get coronavirus this late in the pandemic. “Honestly, we’re far past the point...

www.theonion.com

 

[eevee-fan]

Texas man who declined COVID-19 vaccine speaks out after undergoing double lung transplant

Joshua Garza had a chance to get vaccinated against COVID-19 in January but he passed it up, thinking he didn't really need it. Now, the 43-year-old Texan is hoping to inspire others to get the shot after he became so ill following his COVID-19 diagnosis that he needed a rare double lung...

ca.news.yahoo.com

 

[wdolson]

Well, seeing less and less people with masks now. Good thing our vaccination rate is ok. Would be better, though, if we are above 70%, esp being a tourist destination.

Even the vaccinated are still wearing masks around here. We went to Trader Joe's last week and they had a sign allowing those fully vaccinated to go without masks, but we were the only people in there without a mask.

Young children still can't get vaccinated, so places that are 70% vaccinated have a fairly high percentage of the adult population vaccinated.

Don't underestimate the protective impact of natural immunity. It's not as good as vaccination, but it is still pretty good! Comes with significant costs though, as you say.

Fortunately Delta seems to have less immune escape capability than other variants. So that can rip through the remaining vulnerable without reinfecting too many people (maybe only 15% reinfection probability if exposed?). It's very contagious, so will outstrip the variants with more immune escape like the South African one, and make those less likely to grow in future (since infections by other variants does provide some immunity to immune escape variants). Hooray!

So probably it will be fine. I'm definitely not sure, and the winter will be very tricky and will depend on vaccination progress in the interim (it cannot be predicted currently). But overall I'm still optimistic.

Definitely nationwide, R is starting to go up again (though it is still below 1). We'll see how that goes as full reopening goes forward.

It's frustrating that with the extremely low number of cases that we can't get a good handle on community transmission vs. imports. It seems like at this point we should maximize our test & trace capabilities and stamp this thing out. 10,000 cases a day just isn't that many to contact trace, and contact tracing & quarantine is easier if you can focus on only the unvaccinated exposed. That means there are maybe only ~100,000 people wandering around with COVID who haven't been identified as such...we just need to find them all!

It's almost like we don't want to bring COVID cases to zero. It seems like that should be the goal, even if in practice it cannot be quite achieved...

Of course the nightmare scenario is the Delta variant learns the immune evading tricks of the South African variant.

To a large extent Americans are so ignorant of science a large percentage of the population believe whatever guru they believe tells them. They are incapable of even knowing where to start when it comes to educating themselves. Fortunately some percentage of those people have adopted people like Anthony Fauci as their guru on these things so they have been doing reasonable behaviors, but they don't have the depth of understanding to improvise in situations where they haven't been specifically told what to do.

 

[eevee-fan]

CNBC: New Covid study hints at long-term loss of brain tissue, Dr. Scott Gottlieb warns.

New Covid study hints at long-term loss of brain tissue, Dr. Scott Gottlieb warns

Dr. Scott Gottlieb warned about the potential long-term effects of Covid and pointed to a new study that suggests brain tissue is being destroyed.

www.cnbc.com

There were reports of people losing their minds 4 yr before Covid.

 

[madodel]

CNBC: New Covid study hints at long-term loss of brain tissue, Dr. Scott Gottlieb warns.

New Covid study hints at long-term loss of brain tissue, Dr. Scott Gottlieb warns

Dr. Scott Gottlieb warned about the potential long-term effects of Covid and pointed to a new study that suggests brain tissue is being destroyed.

www.cnbc.com

There were reports of people losing their minds 4 yr before Covid.

If that doesn't scare people into getting vaccinated then they don't have much brain tissue to lose to begin with. Thanks for posting this.

 

[cwerdna]

A COVID Outbreak At The U.S. Embassy In Kabul Has Sickened 114 People And Killed 1

Military hospital ICU resources are at full capacity and the embassy has been forced to "create temporary, on-compound COVID-19 wards," according to a note sent to embassy staff.

www.npr.org

 

[JRP3]

The embassy requests staff to get vaccinated, stay six feet from others, suspends the use of pools and gyms, and demands strict mask compliance from staff. "Wear your masks, correctly! We are seeing a lot of noses."

Improper mask use is why some people claim masks don't work. They don't work if you wear them as a scarf either

Failure to comply could see staff on the next flight home. The embassy asks them to make sure others are following protocols and to report those who aren't.

Great, send those more likely to be infected back here

Eric Rubin, who heads the American Foreign Service Association — the State Department's union — says he's hearing from members, who are "very concerned that their safety has been endangered by fellow employees, who have chosen not to be vaccinated."


"Our understanding is that there is enough vaccine at every embassy and consulate in the world for anyone, who wants to get it," Rubin told NPR.

Why isn't it mandated as part of the job requirement?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Why isn't it mandated as part of the job requirement?

I think it is because it is under EUA. At least in the military, there is some legal history there, I gather.

 

[winfield100]

karen Rei, / nafnlaus on twitter just mentioned that 2 tourists from middle east, tested negative upon arrival, did “touristy stuff”, were tested before leaving and were positive, sequenced and discovered it was delta variant.

i am worried.

 

[wdolson]

karen Rei, / nafnlaus on twitter just mentioned that 2 tourists from middle east, tested negative upon arrival, did “touristy stuff”, were tested before leaving and were positive, sequenced and discovered it was delta variant.

i am worried.

Upon arrival in Afghanistan or somewhere else?

 

[winfield100]

Upon arrival in Afghanistan or somewhere else?

i have no idea, merely reporting, with qualms.

 

[madodel]

Florida vs. CDC cruise lawsuit: Court rules in favor of Florida against conditional sail order

The judge granted a preliminary injunction that prevents the CDC from enforcing the order requiring vaccinations, pending further legal action on a broader Florida lawsuit.

 

[NikolaACDC]

i have no idea, merely reporting, with qualms.

The cases were in Iceland

Google Translate

"The tourists came to the country from the Middle East, were fully vaccinated and were diagnosed negatively in sampling upon arrival here. They turned out to be so positive for the virus at the pre-departure screening on Tuesday. It was stated in the announcement that it had been successful in tracking the tourists' travels and no one had gone into quarantine because of them.
The Delta variant, which appears to be more easily transmitted than other variants, has been diagnosed several times before in Iceland.
"We have diagnosed this at the border and one of them was actually diagnosed in a second screening, but it has not been diagnosed so that it is something we believe has been transmitted here in Iceland," says Guðrún Aspelund, chief physician in the field of epidemiology at the Office of the Medical Director of Health.
Most likely newly infected
She believes that it is most likely that the tourists were not infected with the variant in Iceland.
"So it is likely that they were newly infected, were infected just before the trip or during the trip because this variant is not running here in Iceland, the timing is appropriate because they are diagnosed in screening, they are not diagnosed due to symptoms."

------
But I agree, Delta is something to watch.
UK extended their restrictions by another month because infections are going up again, driven by the Delta variant.
Started ~1month ago, deaths are staying low so far.
And they have 45% fully and an additional 17% partly vaccinated. US is 44% and 9 %.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Started ~1month ago, deaths are staying low so far.
And they have 45% fully and an additional 17% partly vaccinated. US is 44% and 9 %.

Yeah we will see what happens.

I would estimate we had about 25% more natural infections in US than UK. Same per capita death rate, with a population ~2 years younger in the US. Death rate goes up by factor of 3 for every 10 years of age or so based on prior posted, fitted exponential curves here from Bevand.

So roughly 3^(1/5) = 1.25x more cases (per capita) in the US.

So that is *maybe* 8% more of the population (roughly UK at 30%, total WAG, with US at 38%).

So we’ll see. Puts us roughly on par with UK so I’d expect a similar result on average (it seems like it is going to be ok in the UK, but we probably have to wait a couple more weeks to know for sure).

Of course, I think vaccination is probably more uniform in the UK, so it is much more likely that some states here will struggle (though that is offset to some extent by higher infection rates in some of those states).

I get the impression that the UK Is continuing to vaccinate faster (have not checked) and also it is very age stratified so far, so they have less vulnerability to death overall I would guess.