Coronavirus

[wdolson]

Sounds like the delta variant ...

I saw that yesterday. A friend of my partner just moved back from Sarasota (next county over) and she's one of those super paranoid about getting sick (even though she historically has had a great immune system) and she's been fully vaccinated for months. I sent her the article and she's happy she got out.

The county is having this outbreak sequenced and they will have results next week. I guess there is some possibility that it's a new strain. But whatever the strain is, it's no match for the vaccine. Employees who were vaccinated and exposed are fine, but it appears to be extremely contagious among the unvaccinated.

 

[wdolson]

A short cartoon on how vaccines work. An entertaining way of explaining it

https://twitter.com/x/status/1408124928272998401

 

[madodel]

A short cartoon on how vaccines work. An entertaining way of explaining it

https://twitter.com/x/status/1408124928272998401

That is so cute, but how will the paranoids who see the vaccine as something attacking them see this? Will it help them understand how a vaccine sort of works in a simplified cartoon way? Or will they see it as something that is dangerous inside their body?

 

[NikolaACDC]

Shouldn't be a surprise...

Nearly all COVID deaths in US are now among unvaccinated

"Nearly all COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. now are in people who weren’t vaccinated, a staggering demonstration of how effective the shots have been and an indication that deaths per day — now down to under 300 — could be practically zero if everyone eligible got the vaccine.

An Associated Press analysis of available government data from May shows that “breakthrough” infections in fully vaccinated people accounted for fewer than 1,200 of more than 853,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations. That’s about 0.1%.

And only about 150 of the more than 18,000 COVID-19 deaths in May were in fully vaccinated people. That translates to about 0.8%, or five deaths per day on average.

The AP analyzed figures provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC itself has not estimated what percentage of hospitalizations and deaths are in fully vaccinated people, citing limitations in the data.

Among them: Only about 45 states report breakthrough infections, and some are more aggressive than others in looking for such cases. So the data probably understates such infections, CDC officials said."

 

[madodel]

COVID-19 Hospitalization Rates in Adolescents Far Exceeds Influenza, How Else Has COVID-19 Affected Children?

I keep hearing how COVID-19 doesn't affect children. This disputes that premise.

 

[wdolson]

That is so cute, but how will the paranoids who see the vaccine as something attacking them see this? Will it help them understand how a vaccine sort of works in a simplified cartoon way? Or will they see it as something that is dangerous inside their body?

Not really aimed at them. At this point about the only way for an anti-vaxxer to get a clue is for them to get it and get seriously ill or for someone close to them get seriously ill and/or die. Some people refuse to learn unless they suffer some kind of hard lesson first.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Getting close to the point where we see whether our slightly higher levels of natural immunity in the US help us with respect to the UK, against delta variant.

I'd guess in the next couple months we'll see a rise in case counts (since we seem to be hopeless at actually trying to contain things since Americans just do whatever the heck they want, and it's summer, and it's time to go on vacation, and party), due primarily to delta.

How large a rise though...no idea. I expect less of a bump than in the UK. And hoping that hospitalizations and deaths will stay relatively flat - hopefully they'll drop to 100-200 a day shortly - I have a "ghoul pool" bet with my dad (which I'm on the morally right side of, haha) that they'll stay below 700k reported deaths in the US (per CDC website) by the end of 2021. Hoping these vaccines keep working! Also need more people to get them, to make sure I win. (Also, everybody wins that way.)

So probably a fifth "bump." (Fourth for some places I guess.)

I really have no idea though. Felt like I had a pretty good handle on things for a while but seems like now it is hard to predict.

 

[madodel]

Getting close to the point where we see whether our slightly higher levels of natural immunity in the US help us with respect to the UK, against delta variant.

I'd guess in the next couple months we'll see a rise in case counts (since we seem to be hopeless at actually trying to contain things since Americans just do whatever the heck they want, and it's summer, and it's time to go on vacation, and party), due primarily to delta.

How large a rise though...no idea. I expect less of a bump than in the UK. And hoping that hospitalizations and deaths will stay relatively flat - hopefully they'll drop to 100-200 a day shortly - I have a "ghoul pool" bet with my dad (which I'm on the morally right side of, haha) that they'll stay below 700k reported deaths in the US (per CDC website) by the end of 2021. Hoping these vaccines keep working! Also need more people to get them, to make sure I win. (Also, everybody wins that way.)

So probably a fifth "bump." (Fourth for some places I guess.)

I really have no idea though. Felt like I had a pretty good handle on things for a while but seems like now it is hard to predict.

This really sucks. We were going to plan a trip to Europe in September to visit our daughter, since my wife can't schedule any time off before that. By September we may be back in a mess again. I may go visit her myself next month just in case.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Low Vax Rates, the Delta Variant, and a Huge Music Festival Make for a ‘Perfect Storm’ in This Colorado County

“I’ve never seen anything like this in my 20 years in health care,” Dr. Thomas Tobin, the chief medical examiner in Community Hospital in Grand Junction, told The Daily Beast, adding that his hospital is almost at capacity. “Pretty much everyone that’s coming into the hospital is unvaccinated. Some of those people swear they don’t believe in COVID all the way up to when they’re in their hospital room, strapped to machines.”
“And now with Country Jam? From a medical standpoint, the question is how much worse is it going to get for us here in Mesa.”
...
"In Grand Junction, Mesa’s county seat, there are only two hospitals trying to contain the influx of hospital patients. Tobin said that both were nearing capacity, a reality that the chief medical examiner said was frustrating his staff “because at this point this is all preventable.”
“Our COVID-19 numbers are getting close to what we saw in November and December—when we had hit our apex. And the primary reason is people not getting vaccinated,” Tobin said. “We are frustrated, we’re tired, and it’s upsetting to look around our state and the country and see other places having to drop COVID-19 numbers while we are surging.”
...
"“I just hope that those who hesitated before the variant will feel more motivated to be vaccinated,” she said. “All of the people traveling here, picking up the variant, will, I assume, then expose their family/friends at a July 4 celebration.”
-------------------
Denialists are still around it seems. Or around again, since it's all gone now which proves it was a hoax...

At least they might be able to send their patients to neighboring counties if people there were more responsible.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Denialists are still around it seems. Or around again, since it's all gone now which proves it was a hoax...

I suppose the good thing (aside from all the death) is that without significant restrictions in place, this will become a self-limiting problem that solves itself quite quickly (I would estimate about 2-3 months). However, I'd personally exercise caution with activities, even as a fully vaccinated person, until that problem does solve itself. Remember: still a 1 in 10 chance or 1 in 20 chance of getting COVID if exposed after full vaccination (and exposure risk goes to zero as the problem solves itself), and while it's likely to be "minor" it might be quite unpleasant. Also, caution may reduce your dose of virus which may improve your odds of avoiding infection.

And meanwhile we'll hope that new variants that actually escape immunity don't arise.

Does this make me a Great Barrington Declaration adherent now?

"50-60x more contagious than alpha..." - I have my doubts about that, and want to see the data and how that is being defined. It's definitely contagious, but that seems exaggerated.

 

[wdolson]

I suppose the good thing (aside from all the death) is that without significant restrictions in place, this will become a self-limiting problem that solves itself quite quickly (I would estimate about 2-3 months). However, I'd personally exercise caution with activities, even as a fully vaccinated person, until that problem does solve itself. Remember: still a 1 in 10 chance or 1 in 20 chance of getting COVID if exposed after full vaccination (and exposure risk goes to zero as the problem solves itself), and while it's likely to be "minor" it might be quite unpleasant. Also, caution may reduce your dose of virus which may improve your odds of avoiding infection.

And meanwhile we'll hope that new variants that actually escape immunity don't arise.

Does this make me a Great Barrington Declaration adherent now?

"50-60x more contagious than alpha..." - I have my doubts about that, and want to see the data and how that is being defined. It's definitely contagious, but that seems exaggerated.

I've seen estimates that it is 50%-60% more transmissible than alpha, that's a big difference from 50-60 times.

 

[Jeff N]

Nearly all COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. now are in people who weren’t vaccinated

Now? Hasn’t that always been true?

So probably a fifth "bump." (Fourth for some places I guess.)

I really have no idea though. Felt like I had a pretty good handle on things for a while but seems like now it is hard to predict.

A couple of months ago I was thinking there would be a modest wave of infections in June/July in some of the southern states but that was back when we worried about the alpha variant (B.1.1.7). It hasn’t really happened yet except in a small number of counties.

Now we are worrying about the delta variant. I think the wavelet still has time to happen in July and early August but the clock is ticking.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I've seen estimates that it is 50%-60% more transmissible than alpha, that's a big difference from 50-60 times.

Sure is. Now that makes more sense. Numerical illiteracy…

 

[JRP3]

Locally we've had 2 known cases of the Delta variant, total cases are up slightly, and we seem to be stuck around 70% with first dose and 65% both doses. Statewide it's 60% and 50%. Frustrating.

Two COVID-19 Delta variant cases detected in Tompkins County, no spread found - The Ithaca Voice

TOMPKINS COUNTY, N.Y.—There have been two cases of the emerging COVID-19 Delta variant found in Tompkins County, the health department confirmed Thursday, the first of the variant found locally. However, […]

ithacavoice.com

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Locally we've had 2 known cases of the Delta variant, total cases are up slightly, and we seem to be stuck around 70% with first dose and 65% both doses. Statewide it's 60% and 50%. Frustrating.

Two COVID-19 Delta variant cases detected in Tompkins County, no spread found - The Ithaca Voice

TOMPKINS COUNTY, N.Y.—There have been two cases of the emerging COVID-19 Delta variant found in Tompkins County, the health department confirmed Thursday, the first of the variant found locally. However, […]

ithacavoice.com

At 67.6% of the population vaccinated (75.3% over 18), I don’t think you have anything to worry about if the vaccines work well.

Probably another 15% infected but not vaccinated.

So 80% of population protected, minimum. Many of the remaining are young children, about 50% of whom will be carefully protected by their parents from exposure.

So I suspect it will be hard for delta to do anything locally there other than very localized outbreaks in unvaccinated groups (could be wrong but this is just my understanding!). I’m more concerned about places with 20-30% (or more?) lower vaccination rates.

 

[JRP3]

COVID-19

covid19vaccine.health.ny.gov

These rates by zip code don't seem accurate, from Auburn with only 1% to all the areas with 99%.

 

[wdolson]

COVID-19

covid19vaccine.health.ny.gov

These rates by zip code don't seem accurate, from Auburn with only 1% to all the areas with 99%.

I wish Washington State had data like that. You have to dig to find any per capita or percentage data. The top level data looks like King County (Seattle) is doing great with the most vaccinated and most of the rest of the state is all one color because they are below 500K doses. Why? because only three counties in the state have more than 500K people.

New York probably has a similar problem with NYC, but in Washington the state revolves around Seattle and a lot of things are created with the Puget Sound cities in mind with the rest of the state as an afterthought.

Among my partner's different jobs is running an agency that provides domestic violence perpetrator counseling. She was in a phone meeting with a committee that oversees statewide agencies, but almost everyone on the committee live in the Seattle area. My partner was trying to get them to allow online or phone meetings before the pandemic because she serves a rural area and a fair number of her guys are unemployed and either don't have a car or don't have a valid driver's license. Substance abuse is a contributing factor in DV and a lot of them have DUIs. Anyway the Seattle people were saying these people could just get a bus and my partner was trying to get them to realize that many of these guys lives 20-50 miles from the nearest bus stop and the bus wasn't going to take them to where the meeting was anyway. During the pandemic they tried to mandate Zoom meetings with cameras on, but my partner had to argue again that a lot of these guys only had dial up internet and calling in on their phones was their only option.

We live on the edge of the Portland metro area and see both worlds. We have 1 Gb internet, access to all the stores urban and suburban dwellers use, but the nearest bus stop is a mile away and the bus runs about 4 times a day and only has one line that goes into Vancouver. I think it takes about an hour on the bus to do a trip that takes 20 minutes in a car. I've never seen buses around here with more than a handful of people. If you don't drive, you're not going to get out much.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I wish Washington State had data like that. You have to dig to find any per capita or percentage data. The top level data looks like King County (Seattle) is doing great with the most vaccinated and most of the rest of the state is all one color because they are below 500K doses. Why? because only three counties in the state have more than 500K people.

New York probably has a similar problem with NYC, but in Washington the state revolves around Seattle and a lot of things are created with the Puget Sound cities in mind with the rest of the state as an afterthought.

Among my partner's different jobs is running an agency that provides domestic violence perpetrator counseling. She was in a phone meeting with a committee that oversees statewide agencies, but almost everyone on the committee live in the Seattle area. My partner was trying to get them to allow online or phone meetings before the pandemic because she serves a rural area and a fair number of her guys are unemployed and either don't have a car or don't have a valid driver's license. Substance abuse is a contributing factor in DV and a lot of them have DUIs. Anyway the Seattle people were saying these people could just get a bus and my partner was trying to get them to realize that many of these guys lives 20-50 miles from the nearest bus stop and the bus wasn't going to take them to where the meeting was anyway. During the pandemic they tried to mandate Zoom meetings with cameras on, but my partner had to argue again that a lot of these guys only had dial up internet and calling in on their phones was their only option.

We live on the edge of the Portland metro area and see both worlds. We have 1 Gb internet, access to all the stores urban and suburban dwellers use, but the nearest bus stop is a mile away and the bus runs about 4 times a day and only has one line that goes into Vancouver. I think it takes about an hour on the bus to do a trip that takes 20 minutes in a car. I've never seen buses around here with more than a handful of people. If you don't drive, you're not going to get out much.

And now, to add insult to injury, it is well over 110 degrees most days. What witchcraft is this?

 

[madodel]

And now, to add insult to injury, it is well over 110 degrees most days. What witchcraft is this?

It's the Deep State.

 

[Causalien]

A question I have is, are vaccinated ppl dying from the delta variant?