I can understand that early on but it’s been long enough now that people should know to get the shot. Enough with the excuses.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
So if boosters were a likely reality then and are pretty much a requisite for most effective coverage at this point why are they pussyfooting around it?
Either do it or don’t.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Picking up in the middle of this good thread…. Good times! “…a much larger threat in terms of case counts than Delta.” Get boosted ASAP. And strongly consider wearing an N95 mask in indoor environments.
I don’t have high hopes for keeping case growth under control in the US, and we will see what an unmitigated epidemic looks like, I guess. (Significant caveat is that hopefully outcomes will be better especially with double/triple vaccination.)
So all prior estimates of what is going to happen this winter are off the table. (I had said something like 120–130k 7da as I recall.)
Still, perhaps there is something special about South Africa (low vaccination rates, over 10% of population have HIV, etc.) which will not translate to the US. Not counting on that though. Severity is unclear right now - we’ll know more on that in a few weeks and hopefully we’ll get lucky but will be hard to separate the protective effect of evaded natural immunity (from vaccines or infection - both natural of course) from a change in the virus.
I don’t have high hopes for keeping case growth under control in the US, and we will see what an unmitigated epidemic looks like, I guess. (Significant caveat is that hopefully outcomes will be better especially with double/triple vaccination.)
So all prior estimates of what is going to happen this winter are off the table. (I had said something like 120–130k 7da as I recall.)
Still, perhaps there is something special about South Africa (low vaccination rates, over 10% of population have HIV, etc.) which will not translate to the US. Not counting on that though. Severity is unclear right now - we’ll know more on that in a few weeks and hopefully we’ll get lucky but will be hard to separate the protective effect of evaded natural immunity (from vaccines or infection - both natural of course) from a change in the virus.
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Well I would COMPLETELY disagree with you. I have read being vaccinated reduces your viral load and makes you less contagious. AND I personally know that is true. My fully vaccinated wife got Covid. Lost smell, taste, sick for @ 1-2 weeks. Before she tested we were sleeping together (I am also fully. vaccinated. She also slept with our unvaccinated granddaughter and was around a number of unvaccinated people. No One that she was around got Covid. Anecdotal - sure. But it is also logical And another reasonable reason to get vaccinated.
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
Cases are going to happen, especially with a porous border (are we testing or vaccinating migrants?)
Heavens no. Anthony says that’s different.
Cases vs deaths is still a factor that shouldn’t be ignored just because it’s inconvenient to the prevailing narrative.
I agree with this. Even if we do all mitigation we can do effectively(ie without causing riots making them counterproductive) we are not gonna be able to push Omicron anywhere near R≤1. So we will see what it looks like with exponential growth, first very quick, then once numbers actually get scary people will adapt somewhat but it will still probably be very high numbers.
It should be noted that Omicron is mutating faster than other previous strain. And soon there will be many infected humans and animals where Omicron will get a chance to mutate with various evolutionary pressures.
I am a bit optimistic though. For many countries with large immunity(3doses mrna, previous herd immunity from delta etc) I don’t think it will get much worse than Delta was in some Indian cities. But that was pretty bad.
Imo the policy we should have is to accept that it will get bad. Then we do some hard tradeoffs, pay volounteers large amounts of money to get updated omicron-vaccines and then get infected knowing that some of them might die, pay some other group medium amount of money to get vaccinated and track the safety profile without doing the first phases of the trial. To make sure we can get the updated vaccines out ASAP. Because we will need it and the doctors should get the first doses, cause we will need them in the days to come…
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
There’s a reason I highlighted his intentional phrasing. I don’t know what “narrative” you are referring to. The casedemic charlatans and cranks made their arguments before anyone had any immunity (and of course they were always wrong). Now that a great deal of people have natural immunity (vaccine-acquired and infection-acquired), it’s very reasonable to have a discussion about the protection provided and in fact it very much has been discussed widely in epi circles and mainstream media. It’s not excluded from any narrative - it’s part of getting to endemicity, if that’s where we are going to end up.
Remains to be seen how robust T-cell protections remain against omicron - we’ll know soon. We definitely have to hope that cases do not result in hospitalizations at the same rate, otherwise this winter and early next year may be the worst we have ever seen (by far), if these growth rates play out in the US! So, TBD.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
My understanding is very little of this will be needed especially as a booster, and Pfizer is planning to leverage prior safety & efficacy information from trials of its prior variant vaccines to speed approval by the FDA. Whether or not that happens is TBD. I am hopeful that after about 10 missteps by the FDA and CDC, this time they’ll finally get it right, and we’ll have new vaccines rolling out in three months (Pfizer’s timeline). And, hopefully, they won’t be needed and the booster dose will still have strong protection.
Worth noting that the attendee at the anime conference who had omicron had been boosted weeks prior. Had minor symptoms though. Still discouraging (though of course we do expect breakthroughs, you hope not to see them right away…)
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
It sounds like you might watch too much TV. I recommend against that. If anything, the reaction to Delta was too subdued and even some experts (e.g. Topol) had settled on calling them “scariants,” prior to Delta. This proved incorrect and resulted in underestimating Delta’s transmissibility and overestimating the protection afforded by vaccines.
Overall, the science on variants has been very solid and the reactions well calibrated. Even with omicron, the response has been very measured. There is simply a lot we do not know yet.
I think the response and reaction to Omicron has so far been extremely reasonable.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I Did My Own Research Gravestone Headstone Cemetery Tombstone. - Etsy
I did my own research Tombstone. Graveyard. Grave stone. Halloween Decorations This was a cancellation and ready to ship Each on of my tombstones are a work of art. Every stone gets a Custom graphics (if desired) and special fonts that go w heads to make them a one of a kind. Your tombstone is
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ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
I like their Ich habe nur Befehle befolgt line better.View attachment 740730
I Did My Own Research Gravestone Headstone Cemetery Tombstone. - Etsy
I did my own research Tombstone. Graveyard. Grave stone. Halloween Decorations This was a cancellation and ready to ship Each on of my tombstones are a work of art. Every stone gets a Custom graphics (if desired) and special fonts that go w heads to make them a one of a kind. Your tombstone is
@Double-O
Please re-read his reply again, then read or reread @bkp_duke reply
it's _not_ an either/or, on/off type switch, it's perhaps more a matter of degree, like bkp_duke said, apply a bit of statistical analysis,
like a simple card game, each player gets their _own_ deck of cards and only their own
getting vaccinated gives you a bunch of extra aces and face cards in your deck of cards you draw from, that you slowly use, as does getting boosted and wearing masks, single or double mask gives you extra high cards, etc.
the unvaccinated and maskless have to draw from their own, unaltered decks,
you get to draw from decks with lots of extra high cards
the unvaccinated play with plain 52 cards, most likely fewer, but whatever, perhaps due to COVID19 brain fog, removing aces and face cards for age, co-morbidities 'n such, so not a full deck, eh, implications implied
the vaccinated with 52 regular cards plus perhaps an additional 50 - 100 more aces and face cards
Whom will win _more_ hands of poker? and get to live, longer
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ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
FACT - there were 12-15 times the number of deaths from COVID-19 last year in the USA compared to a "typical" year from influenza.
How deadly does a virus need to be before we take it seriously?
Mind you, I say that as the doctor in this thread that has advocated strongly for personal freedoms (and taken a ton of flack for it).
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
For some of the population facts are powerless against feelings.
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
Politicization (never let a good crisis go to waste) was and to some point still is a big factor that has gone unchecked and likely contributed to an exacerbation much more severe than we think.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I completely agree that the pandemic should not have been politicized, but that's like wishing for unicorns in our current society. It was always going to happen, because everything is hyperpoliticized.
We can try to read/cut through the political BS and base our decisions on facts (and not cherry picked ones, but look at the ENTIRE body of evidence), or we can just pick our tribes and get the pitch forks ready.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
You raise a good point about testing illegal immigrants... this is a serious health concern and should be addressed.
The CDC now requires proof of vaccination for non-U.S. citizens, nonimmigrant passengers for all air passenger travel into the US.
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