Coronavirus

[Fred42]

Drastic measures. All schools, libraries, sports halls etc closed. Kindergartens stay open.
Gatherings of more than 10 people banned.
Visiting homes for elderly forbidden.
Visiting hospitals forbidden.

Over 70-year olds are forbidden to be in any contact with other people.

Libraries closed in Finland but bars stay open?

 

[renim]

Brett Winton raises the possibility that there could be a large latent immune population that could help avoid some of the worst case scenarios (especially in combination with other strategies to slow the spread).

What if there already is a large latent-immune population?

I'm more wondering if the populations that consume a background level of antimalarials have a similar effect. Perhaps there is more to Indonesia and India not reporting mass Covid19 than just absence of competent testing and reporting. Indonesia, because they have a lot of travel with China. And India because Iran. To be clear, I'm not saying that antimalarials will stop Covid19, but perhaps it lessons the severity of initial infection allowing more time for the body to develop its own immune response. which is after all, part of the nuance of herd immunity.

While many others are hoping for vaccines, I'm hoping for antibody tests to demonstrate that people have passed through Covid19 naturally and developed their own immunity. Neither exist yet.

 

[shootformoon]

This the the big unknown, but there are a few likely scenarios.

1) Vaccine development progresses and in the meantime social distancing keeps us from overwhelming ICU beds. Positive news is that vaccines for SARS and MERS (both coronaviruses) had made substantial progress in the past 5-10 years, and the companies that did that research were able to piggyback it and advance Phase 1 candidates for COVID-19 more quickly. This is exactly why we were able to start Phase 1 (today, none-the-less, and in Seattle). Last time I looked there were 30+ companies doing Phase 1 vaccine development, and that is very encouraging.
2) People are stupid and when restrictions are lessened, they all go nuts and we see a 2nd wave of this, which is worse than the first because probably all local communities are "seeded" with infectious individuals.
3) We get REALLY lucky and Remdesivir (less likely chloroquine) shows great effectiveness at reducing both morbidity and mortality. Basically, this would change the R0 value of the virus to < 1 and allow for containment. Remdesivir is already been through one set of Phase 1 trials in the past (for Ebola) and that should jumpstart the trials for COVID-19.

Why Remdesivir has anything to do with R0? I can only think of some very remote links.

 

[renim]

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

FWIW, I read this as, closing schools now, increases the pain later (unless vaccines become real, which considering SARs is not a likely near term prospect)

 

[N5329K]

What I don't know is - what is the end game for Covid-19 ?

Because as soon as the restrictions are listed, we are back to square one. Without a vaccine or herd-immunity level infections (40% to 70%) - how does the infection stop ?

It ‘s pretty likely we will reach that 40%+ herd immunity level.
Robin

 

[Russell]

Hi from Liverpool. This is my favourite forum and I have learnt so much, especially from the prominent regular posters. So I thought I should join and say thank you.
I have been buying $TSLA for about a year in small packets and now have enough to have felt the pain over the last few weeks. I have a Model 3 on order (God knows when it will be delivered - it's 6 weeks since I ordered). So all in all, a big Tesla fan.

The last couple of weeks have felt really uncomfortable. I have many other equities, although Tesla is by far my biggest holding. I've felt panicky (not helped by the doom-mongers on the main news channels in the UK, BBC and ITV) and my resolve to be greedy when others are fearful has been tested. But so far I've held firm.

I started to look for some context to try to make sense of things, so looked at data from the countries which are well past their peak, and where new daily cases have dwindled to a handful, namely China and south Korea.
The resource below is really useful. It shows virus data for all countries, and if you click on a country it breaks down the figures. The "daily new cases" graph is compelling and it shows what we can eventually expect in the west - i.e. that the frenzy we are experiencing now will indeed peak and then dwindle away. At which point people will relax, go back to work, and things will return to normal, including the share price.

An interesting observation on China: It has a population of 1.45 billion and 80,879 (0.006%) of them are reported to have had the disease. Or to put it another way, 99.994% haven't. Context.

All of which has made me more relaxed about riding out this hiatus and not selling a single share.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 182,403 Cases and 7,144 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
.

Do you realise Tesla's Fremont factory is in Alameda County, one of the counties under lockdown for the next 3 weeks?
Bay Area takes unprecedented action, issuing legal order for residents to stay at home

 

[HG Wells]

I'm curious why CORONA parties have not been proposed. Just like the chicken pox parties we had in the sixties.
Get infected then isolate for two-three weeks. Under 30's only.

I know its dumb and dangerous. Just surprised no ones mentioned it.

 

[bkp_duke]

Why Remdesivir has anything to do with R0? I can only think of some very remote links.

Remdesivir is an antiviral that has shown promise in treating COVID-19. Any intervention that reduces the course and severity of the infection also reduces viral shedding, which in turn reduces the R0.

An example of this is Tamiflu (Oseltamivir). It reduces that course and severity of Influenza infections (if started in the first 48 hours of symptoms). This reduces the infectivity and influenza viral shedding, not just the course and severity.
Effects of oseltamivir treatment on duration of clinical illness and viral shedding, and household transmission of influenza virus

 

[bkp_duke]

While many others are hoping for vaccines, I'm hoping for antibody tests to demonstrate that people have passed through Covid19 naturally and developed their own immunity. Neither exist yet.

Antibody tests (IgG and IgM) do exist already for COVID-19.
IgM - acute phase antibody
IgG - long term antibody

COVID-19 IgM/IgG Rapid Test – BioMedomics Inc.
Products - STANDARD Q COVID-19 IgM/IgG Duo
Advaite Produces COVID-19 Rapid Response Diagnostic Kits
Coronavirus Test Tracker: Commercially Available COVID-19 Tests

Disclaimer - I don't work for any of these companies, know the products myself, or have any investment in any of them.

My professional opinion is that I would give the industry 1-2 months to "shake out" the poorer quality kits.

 

[renim]

It's ~20x more lethal, more contagious, no one has immunity, there's no vaccine and anti-virals don't work. That's far more than just a 'bad flu'.

The only 'saving grace' is people under 20 appear to be ~immune but the lethality doubles for every 10 years of age up to >10% for anyone >70.

for much of the younger population, a bad flu is significantly worse than Covid19 (please correct me if I'm wrong)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357v1.full.pdf

in particular I would point out that Korea's IFR is average about 0.6%. So, we can refactor the question, how many years of flu is Covid19 equivalent to? and for which age groups?

 

[nwdiver]

View attachment 522561
for much of the younger population, a bad flu is significantly worse than Covid19 (please correct me if I'm wrong)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357v1.full.pdf

in particular I would point out that Korea's IFR is average about 0.6%. So, we can refactor the question, how many years of flu is Covid19 equivalent to? and for which age groups?

Yep; Like I said...

The only 'saving grace' is people under 20 appear to be ~immune but the lethality doubles for every 10 years of age up to >10% for anyone >70.

 

[kbM3]

Yeah as I posted earlier (which of course received the expected vehement disagreement from those who don't prefer heresy), I didn't think his tweets would age well. "The coronavirus panic is dumb." Hmm.

I assume this is going to mean a production halt. Guess we'll see what they come up with. I guess essential activities would include work, so maybe all is well (???). I have no idea (also, all is not well, obviously). EDIT: reading the article below, sounds like it is going to require a stop to production unless they have something up their sleeve...

No matter what they are doing, hope they are finding some ways to keep their workers screened and safe. They have experience with this - we'll see how it goes.

I know. I mean what was Elon thinking when he said CV panic is dumb?

He had to know it would upset people.

I mean there’s those people who love to panic. There’s those who can’t help but panic. There’s also those who are convinced panic is a better response than logical actions based on expert advice.

Why in the world would Elon insult the panic community like that? What a dumb idea. We need to soothe them and tell them that panic may be right for them.

 

[renim]

which is why a South Korea style response is so much more sensible than a China Wuhan style response.

 

[linux-works]

I was at a supercharger a few hours ago, topping off the tank, as it were. I don't have home charging and work is 'closed' (although I guess I could do a L2 charge there - takes a long time and I'm not into being there that long). there was no big wait at the mtn view/shoreline SC.

makes me wonder how well supported the SC network is going to be. is that 'important' so that it passes for being open, during the shutdown? service people? its like a gas station (I think its like that, been a while and I'm trying to remember what a 'gas station is', lol) - and so I would assume that all that is related to keeping the SC network running is allowed during a legal shutdown.

I didn't want to top over 90% but like I said, I don't have home charging, so ...

 

[renim]

I know. I mean what was Elon thinking when he said CV panic is dumb?

He had to know it would upset people.

I mean there’s those people who love to panic. There’s those who can’t help but panic. There’s also those who are convinced panic is a better response than logical actions based on expert advice.

Why in the world would Elon insult the panic community like that? What a dumb idea. We need to soothe them and tell them that panic may be right for them.

because he knows that in the future, that tweet will stand the test of time very well.

 

[nwdiver]

I know. I mean what was Elon thinking when he said CV panic is dumb?

He had to know it would upset people.

I mean there’s those people who love to panic. There’s those who can’t help but panic. There’s also those who are convinced panic is a better response than logical actions based on expert advice.

Why in the world would Elon insult the panic community like that? What a dumb idea. We need to soothe them and tell them that panic may be right for them.

.... I took his post as panic is NEVER useful. If there was a comet with a 99.9% chance of hitting North America is 6 days panic would still be stupid. Panic never makes ANYTHING better.

Pretty sure this goes beyond a simple nod to Douglas Adams... it's generally sound advice.

That doesn't mean COVID-19 isn't a serious threat and locking down an entire city for 2 weeks may in fact be a prudent measure. It means don't panic and buy a 12 year supply of toilet paper.

 

[OCR1]

Has anyone heard if Fremont is still planning to operate during the Bay Area lockdown? If not, the end of quarter sales are going to be disastrous.

 

[bkp_duke]

Yep; Like I said...



View attachment 522562

No, people under 20 are not immune to this. They simply recover with a much lower mortality rate.

Infection recovery is NOT equal to immunity.

 

[bkp_duke]

I was at a supercharger a few hours ago, topping off the tank, as it were. I don't have home charging and work is 'closed' (although I guess I could do a L2 charge there - takes a long time and I'm not into being there that long). there was no big wait at the mtn view/shoreline SC.

makes me wonder how well supported the SC network is going to be. is that 'important' so that it passes for being open, during the shutdown? service people? its like a gas station (I think its like that, been a while and I'm trying to remember what a 'gas station is', lol) - and so I would assume that all that is related to keeping the SC network running is allowed during a legal shutdown.

I didn't want to top over 90% but like I said, I don't have home charging, so ...

Electrical systems usually require far less maintenance than ones with physical pumps like gas. I would surmise that the supercharger network is more robust and requires fewer man hours of maintenance than a typical gas station.

 

[Mikedrives]

Two points:
Guam has a large economy due to tourism as well. It's not just DOD.
Bahamas and Bermuda: 0 cases to date (last I looked)...hhmm probably the smart gov't right? No it was shutting down and Isolating the countries further than they are (which I'll buy was a smart move, one which the libs will say the President should have done, but then had he done it they would have gone high and right critical and probably died of a stroke).
Dzm

So, what you're saying is that comparing the closing of small islands to the closing of 7,593 miles of US borders is like comparing apples to Orange Hitler.