Coronavirus

[SageBrush]

In this case average is measured by health.

Question: What do you call a person one day before their first health attack ?

Healthy, perhaps ?

 

[Cherry Wine]

What I'd like to see are stats on hospitalization / ICU. Those are closer to truth numbers. # of cases is basically useless - Lombardy and Rome have nearly 10% CFR. So, not much testing going on.

With respect to fatalities, at least some regions are seeing a flattening or even a downward trend in fatalities (Piemonte and Veneto).

 

[SageBrush]

HCQ side effects are definitely a step above the majority of drugs on the market. But most of them are from moderate and long term use.

That is generally true, but e.g. it is not true for psychiatric symptoms.
And you have no idea about the efficacy profile. A little ? A lot ?

 

[SageBrush]

Done.
Even in light of increased testing? I suppose you may be right.

I imagine that all else being equal, as testing becomes more widespread the percentage of positive tests will drop. I think of it as the case load having a greater fraction of patients with sniffles and a smaller fraction of patients with fever+cough or direct contacts with Covid-19

 

[traxila]

That is generally true, but e.g. it is not true for psychiatric symptoms.
And you have no idea about the efficacy profile. A little ? A lot ?

With you on that. Need a lot more data.

If you were diagnosed with COVID, would you take a five day course of HCQ at this point?

 

[SageBrush]

With you on that. Need a lot more data.

If you were diagnosed with COVID, would you take a five day course of HCQ at this point?

I'm not sure, because I have asthma and prior bouts with URIs have been ... difficult. Difficult, as in any non-physician would have been hospitalized, perhaps in an ICU. I would certainly think about it if I developed reactive airways but I would warn my wife to be on the lookout for psychiatric symptoms and to hospitalize me if they developed.

 

[EVNow]

With respect to fatalities, at least some regions are seeing a flattening or even a downward trend in fatalities (Piemonte and Veneto).

Looks like in Piemonte they sent back a lot of hospitalized patients to quarantine at home, could be in preparation for increase in expected severe cases yet to come ? In Veneto +10% in hospitalization, ICU and fatalities.

The head of Chinese red cross delegation in Italy is saying they need to clamp down more. He also says in Wuhan it took a month from lockdown to peak.

TIME on Twitter

 

[Daniel in SD]

This corona is total joke for normal person without underling conditions, I have been saying it for some days already. Like average cold with crappy respiratory symptoms.

It seems like you're arguing with nobody. No one is disagreeing that the vast majority of people who contract it will be fine.

 

[AlexS]

if somebody needs a test you should contact
GenMark Receives FDA Emergency Use Authorization for its ePlex® SARS-CoV-2 Test

 

[Prunesquallor]

Every product you buy has been handled in some way by many contacts along the way.

My point exactly. It’s a reductio ad absurdism.

 

[dgodfrey]

Absolutely - have been roasting at home for 10+ years. Once you taste fresh roasted coffee - you can't go back to stale store bought coffee. Moreover I can blend it the way I want for espresso and you can build a DIY roaster for < $100.

BTW, roasting your own coffee is much cheaper too. Excellent green coffee costs ~ $6/lb.

Back on point - may be this is a good time to do things at home rather than buy. Coffee used to be roasted by home by everyone just a few decades back in US (or so I've read). Yesterday for the first time we baked our kid's birthday cake ...

I use an old hot air popcorn popper that is only used for this, $20 new. Works like a charm. I do it in the garage as the smell can be strong. I just watch for the beans to glisten.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I don’t get it why people go to Starbucks. We replaced our Nespresso with a Jura, and it will pay for itself within a year or so just based on the price difference between Nespresso capsules and coffee beans. Now that the entire family is home in lockdown, the payback time will be even less, in addition to keeping us safer.
I’m a software developer, and they say software developers are things that turn coffee into lines of code.

It serves the same purpose coffee houses have for hundreds of years. Social interaction.

 

[jerry33]

It serves the same purpose coffee houses have for hundreds of years. Social interaction.

Are we talking about the same Starbucks? All I've ever seen is people sitting and staring at their screens.

 

[ohmman]

Worth a listen.

The Side Effects of Social Distancing (Ep. 409) - Freakonomics

 

[Cosmacelf]

Starbucks remains open. FCA, General Motors, and Ford close down. Crazy world.

Is overpriced coffee actually a critical industry?

Of course it is, and I’m not saying that just because my SBUX is up 5.28% from when I bought it 3 days ago. Go Starbucks!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Another chart for us to ponder. This one shows cumulative deaths per million inhabitants.

Apparently the US is not so far along in its experience curve, still less than 1 death per million. Hubei Province is a good benchmark around 50 death per million. Italy has already blown past this. Many other European countries look exceed the Hubei death rate. An older age distribution can contribute to this. But an overwhelmed health care system is also a huge risk for accelerating cumulative deaths.

So where is the US? I think we are early enough in our experience curve that we really don't know how this will impact us sociologically. The deaths will easily grow 10X in about a week (I'm not trying to make a precise forecast here.) How will we process this when deaths are up ten-fold. The pandemic is just now starting to feel "real" for many Americans. We are just barely waking up from our collective denial. But as the deaths rise, perceptions of the pandemic will change.

TMCers like to poke fun at legacy automakers and the oil industry for how easily they dismiss the EV disruption simply because EVs have been such a small fraction of total automobiles. It is easy for them to shake off worries and indulge in denialist fantasies while the scale of EVs are trivially small. But the fleet of EVs continue to grow exponentially (even when there is slow growth y/y in new EVs sold). But year after year, the EV fleet is growing and reaching new scale. But eventually, EVs reach critical scales where denial is no longer an option. On the pro-EV side we like to think we are immune to this sort of denial of disruption that we see so clearly in our competitors. But sadly, when a pandemic is disrupting our own expectations for Tesla, it is easy for us to fall into the same denial trap.

So take a deep breath and tell yourself, "I see this disruption. I accept that my life will be disrupted."

Edit, the creator of this chart said that not all countries have updated their stats. So some of the sideways movement on the last day (for example, see Italy) is probably just a reporting lag, not a real flatting out of death rates.

The US slope looks better than Europe too. I suspect we will emerge much better than Europe due to early steps we took with regard to borders and social distancing. Recently discovered and newly in use therapies are also helping. The only fly in that ointment I see is that Florida didn’t close their beaches and restaurants this week for Spring break. That will prove to be a mistake, and all those students will fly back to their states with their infections.

 

[nwdiver]

This is sick and pathetic. America is a broken country remember that in November!!!!

Total Cost of Her COVID-19 Treatment: $34,927.43

Jane Doe gets COVID-19 and racks up >$30k in medical bills. Sucks to be her.

Boeing stock tanks and they're insolvent because they used their tax cuts to buy back stock at $400/share. We must give them $50B because this crisis 'wasn't their fault'

So..... Jane Doe decided to get COVID-19?!?!?!!?!?

If we can print money to save US industry we can print money to pay for healthcare!

 

[SageBrush]

I suspect we will emerge much better than Europe due to early steps we took with regard to borders and social distancing.

It only looks that way due to the very limited testing. The US is right on track to be the hardest hit, just delayed by a few weeks.



Trump stupidity, at your service.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Are we talking about the same Starbucks? All I've ever seen is people sitting and staring at their screens.

LOL. Depends on location and time of day, I suppose.

A group of folks and I get our morning workout in at the fitness center, then head down the street to sbux for coffee/breakfast. Lots of folks in and out picking up stuff for work. After most of the morning crowd leaves, I'll settle down and get some work done (I normally WFH).

It’s a nice routine. At least, it was.

 

[SageBrush]

Here is an outstanding interview in Bloomberg with a senior physician from Wuhan

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

China’s Approach
The doctors said that it seemed to them that China’s domestic outbreak has come to an end, but that the country still needs to be vigilant.

“Even in Wuhan, we should remain alert, we should prepare for future sporadic cases and future imported cases,” said Du.

China is now providing assistance to other affected countries. Last week, a Chinese plane carrying medical professionals and about 30 tons of medical supplies landed in Italy.

“Every nation has its own COVID-19 situation. We are not saying this is China’s example and you should follow, we totally respect that you take your own actions,” said Wu, “But everyone of us should take it seriously, take necessary actions, change your behavior, and be responsible.”