Nope clear it wasn't. Turgid perhaps, murky, obtuse, vague, perhaps a touch cranky, but clear . . . . mostly not
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Nope clear it wasn't. Turgid perhaps, murky, obtuse, vague, perhaps a touch cranky, but clear . . . . mostly not
Norbert
TSLA will win
That's still a possibility if we don't do what is necessary and just open up as if it would be all over.
How many nursing homes got hit in NYC and concluded? In WA, it was a 33% mortality rate. If none or few, then there's your answer.
Norbert
TSLA will win
First I hear of "half the town". I guess you just made up the number, in which case that is dangerous nonsense.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Haha. You're the one who brought it up!
There are 10 million people in NYC. Obviously it depends what percentage gets infected. It seems to me that in an "unmitigated epidemic" a very high percentage would get infected given how fast it seemed to spread in early March.
330M/8.4M * 15k = 589k. You get to 2.2M by changing your assumptions about CFR and the percentage of people infected.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
My mom's 87 year old nextdoor neighbor tested positive 3 weeks ago and is fully recovered as of Saturday. They quarantined their floor for 2.5 weeks and just raised it Saturday.
Very high end joint, but they definitely had at least 2 cases I know of. Both recovered.
To me, NYC is essentially one giant nursing home. Tons of people elbow to elbow sneezing all over each other. Hence the wide spread after only a few weeks of normal behavior before lockdown.
That's a fantastic graph and chart. And it makes it clear that although the USA is still in a boatload of trouble, Japan and Singapore are in trouble too after some initial success at keeping R subscript down. Only South Korea has really controlled this thing. I don't trust Chinese dataand I suspect both their death count and infection count are significantly higher than their reporting.
Tons of people elbow to elbow does not equal a nursing home. Where do you have your mom stored anyway?!?
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
And I would say those assumptions are fairly conservative given that if you do nothing you completely bust Healthcare capacity and that means almost everyone that needs an ICU dies.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
This is great. We’re going to have 5% of the people who took this test galavanting around San Diego, flaunting their invulnerability, when probably only 1% of them are immune. Perfect.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Whoops, I had 18M for some reason. That must be the whole state.
The point still stands. Massive infection of all boros and jersey....only 11k deaths til now. Perhaps we'll see 16k in total. The math never gets us to 2.2M under any scenario, even if the entire nation were packed like NYC sardines.
We went through this. That report quoted mortality rates for 30-39 and 40-49 year olds that wouldn't occur if they stood around spitting in each other's mouths for all of March. The base assumptions were very wrong.
Norbert
TSLA will win
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
If they'd let me move in there, I would do it in a heartbeat. Happy hour starts at like 2:15. Water aerobics?
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
You say things are wrong but you never explain which numbers you think are wrong.
There is zero chance the New York state numbers will stop at 16k. Just the people who are currently infected will make the number higher than that.
Now you're making even less sense, so elbow to elbow when they do water aerobics?!?
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Loss of Smell and Taste Validated as COVID-19 Symptoms in Patients with High Recovery Rate (this link is the general article for a slightly less technical take. The link below has the full technical details.
In a study published April 12, 2020 in the journal International Forum of Allergy & Rhinology, researchers at UC San Diego Health report the first empirical findings that strongly associate sensory loss with COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the novel coronavirus.
In a study published April 12, 2020 in the journal International Forum of Allergy & Rhinology, researchers at UC San Diego Health report the first empirical findings that strongly associate sensory loss with COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the novel coronavirus.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
We don't have any numbers, no one is testing. Everything is an assumption.
NY stands at 10.5k, NYC at 7.3k. I doubt well see NYC double from here by the end of May. Perhaps this calendar year if this goes poorly in wave 2.
Norbert
TSLA will win
None of your numbers can be used to calculate the mortality without mitigation, or an upper limit for it. You don't just have a math problem.
Herd immunity is often estimated to require an infection rate of 70%, if not more. Without mitigation or other measures, it will not stop spreading before that, just become maybe slower in some areas.
With an IFR of 1%, that is 2.3 million deaths,
with an IFR of 1.5% that is 3.4 million.
None of these numbers have been disproven or even seriously challenged. You certainly can't rely on them being wrong.
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