Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Your logic doesn't really make sense. How can a virus that spreads this quickly have a low R0?
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Seattle ER doctor story of survival.
Summary: was not looking good so running out of options they turned to
-extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) to provide life support
-turned to an off-label use of an immunosuppressive drug, Tocilizumab, to suppress Padgett’s immune response.
Summary: was not looking good so running out of options they turned to
-extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) to provide life support
-turned to an off-label use of an immunosuppressive drug, Tocilizumab, to suppress Padgett’s immune response.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
"Restaurants will reopen with fewer tables and masks will be commonplace."
I find it hard to eat with my mask on. Do they mean for staff only or is there going to be a weird mask dance at every table of take mask off, take a bite, put mask back on, take mask off, take a drink, put mask back on, and repeat?
I find it hard to eat with my mask on. Do they mean for staff only or is there going to be a weird mask dance at every table of take mask off, take a bite, put mask back on, take mask off, take a drink, put mask back on, and repeat?
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
The mask statement wasn't tied to the restaurant statement. I would assume you take off masks while you're eating. And servers & others will wear masks.
dqd88
Member
That paper says it's an estimate and puts it between 0.3 and 1.2, quite low.
Estimates from IHME and Imperial College were too high.
Yes, masks would lower the R0 for sure. It captures droplets which contain viruses. No it doesn't work 100% but anything is better than nothing; and of course it depends highly on the quality of the mask.
Sneezing into your shirt would help it alot too. I have not heard a single person mention it. Only me. (I think outside the box.) Sneeze downward, cover mouth/nose with your shirt collar, sneeze down into your chest/belly area. Yeah it's nasty but it contains the droplets. This should be default behavior. Otherwise you are putting your biohazard into the air. Human fluids. In medical setting they treat saliva sample similar to urine/blood/ samples. They contain it, and handle with gloves. Spraying mucus and saliva into the air is like spraying urine and blood into the air. Should be illegal.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Are you wanting to continue the shelter in place order, then? A little confused about what you're advocating here. Stay home, stay healthy, I suppose! But you seemed to be advocating for the opposite earlier. I guess you've changed your mind? I did not realize I was so convincing.
Assume you are talking about Calif CV update today. Yes I immediately thought the same thing. So guess every business will have a temperature greeter before you can enter? I actually found today’s plan a disappointment. Don’t know what I was expecting but for an hour just expected something else. Everything said was I think pretty much expected steps so nothing really new. I thought a comprehensive plan with details was going to be laid out.
i was hoping I guess for some specific industries to get some mention. Not just Tesla but the PG&E shutdowns that undoubtedly happening come late summer/fall. Are they even thinking that far ahead? They should as pretty much everyone seems to think CV will be active in the fall.
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HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Did you know that Bill Gates wants to microchip people with that covid-19 vaccine ?
The great intelectual Roger Stone, will tell you all about it. He always tells the truth !
Roger Stone floats theory that Bill Gates wants to ‘microchip’ people with ‘mandatory vaccinations’
The great intelectual Roger Stone, will tell you all about it. He always tells the truth !
Roger Stone floats theory that Bill Gates wants to ‘microchip’ people with ‘mandatory vaccinations’
I would hope all restaurant workers are doing that now as they prepare takeout food. In reading all the stories of meat processing shutdowns due to “positive” workers I have to wonder if the meat processed is contaminated. Need some transparency on this too.
dqd88
Member
It spread quickly after they forced everyone into boxes. Sick and healthy, stay together 24/7.
Before that is spread about same as flu.
dqd88
Member
No, We should get back to work, but do mitigation, a new normal. Isolate the at-risk and the sick only. And make everyone exercise to get healthier.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
What? All the evidence from NY shows exactly the opposite. It was spreading fastest prior to the "New York Pause." Just look at the daily cases (as a %) and the daily net hospitalizations! It looks like a fairly constant flow of cases into the hospital currently, but hopefully we'll start seeing reductions in hospitalizations soon (which would indicate R0 less than 1). Hopefully the flattening isn't just due to the lack of tests (that certainly could be contributing to making us look like we're doing better than we actually are...but positivity is declining slightly at least).
So go back to R0 at 3, less whatever the improvement we get from face masks? Not sure that will work. Not sure specifically what you mean by mitigation.
dqd88
Member
Essentially what we should do - rank every scenario by transmitability. If low transmit, then resume. High transmit can stay closed or must enact mitigation.
Low transmit would be most outdoor activities, or anything where people can stay spaced out and good ventilation.
High transmit would be where people are close together and poor ventilation.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Pregnant women are not typical of overall population.
No studies - because nobody is doing random population checks in NY. Only thing we can do is look at deaths - and back-calculate everything based on numbers from other places. Since, even in other places IFR is hotly contested (since we are still in the initial phase of the pandemic) - you can only get a wide range for the infected. IFR could be anywhere from 0.3% to 3% - we get the infected rate of 1.8% to 18% for NY. If you take the middle - you are around 10%.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
No, it spread at the same ~ exponential rate as before SAH, and then dropped off after ~ two incubation periods as would be predicted from a SAH mandate that is effective; and cannot be explained by the levels of herd-ish immunity you subscribe to.
You opinions are your own, but please accept facts and math.
dqd88
Member
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
You're guessing 10%, I'm guessing 30-60%. How is one more "making s*** up" than the other? Everyone is guessing because no one has done any random testing.
There are 202k "confirmed cases" in NYC and 10,834 deaths. That's with hospitals refusing to test asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, or moderately symptomatic patients. I think it's fair to say that methodology is going to count maybe 10% of total actual infections at best, I would wager it's actually lower than 5%. These are fairly rational assumptions supported by the few semi-random test groups we've seen and put us in a ballpark of 2.7M infections for NYC and a mortality rate around 0.4%.
Obviously a significant number of patients will still die in the coming week, but I think the numbers above are a conservative estimate. I still think we'll see an overall IFR under 0.2% if we god-forbid ever test a wide swath of America. I think this virus spreads like mad, but isn't too terribly deadly relative to what Rene Russo contracted in Outbreak.
Oxford Center for Evidence-Based Medicine's most recent worldwide IFR estimate is 0.1-0.36. Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates - CEBM
New York State currently has 10,000 deaths -- not sure of the figure for NYC but it's not hard to get into the 30-50% infected range using the CEBM's IFR range, especially taking into account that deaths lag infections. IFR/R0 are some of the hardest things to estimate and are hotly disputed, so starting with one of them rather than primary data seems backward -- in any case it isn't how I would approach it.
Anecdotally, epidemiologists seem to be taking the hospital study pretty seriously. It's certainly not the last word and there could be something unusual about the population of women coming to that hospital, but it's the best study for NYC I've seen so personally I wouldn't dismiss it unless and until better evidence emerges.
Wrong. I haven't offered a guess. So I guess that's just some more made up s***. You can't seem to stop yourself can you? Just to clarify , I'm not that big into guessing about this s***. We have professionals who don't guess, they make calculations. Lives depend on those calculations being at least ballpark accurate and not off by orders of magnitude. I'm not entirely sure where you're going with this but it's typically part of a disinformation campaign to minimize the severity of covid-19 and to suggest that any version of shutting down the economy is stupid because A) it's not that serious or . . B) we're very close to herd immunity anyway.
Wrong, and wrong. Added to the first wrong, namely that I had offered a guess of 10% exposure in New York that makes three wrongs, or in this case 3 Strikes. So you're out. Go back to the dugout. You're benched. It's plainly evident that you just can't hit the big fastball. Or throw one either. And bean balls don't count they just give the other team a free base runner.
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