Coronavirus

[Norbert]

Does anyone know where to find the slides (or graphs) that are shown during the WH task force briefings?
The videos seem to show only those that T points at, but not most of those that Birx goes through.

It seems T wants to limit money and effort spent on testing, with the excuse that not all ventilators were necessary.

He wants to open for business pretty much without further ado. I can't see how that will be anything else than a restart of the same problems.

 

[dhanson865]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/cargill-deena-hinshaw-covid-19-1.5536916

358 cases of COVID-19 now linked to Cargill meat plant outbreak

 

[alloverx]

Yes I am also looking for Whitehouse slides, for now I have a screen shot

 

[Dr. J]

It will be very hard, but I am not of the belief that herd immunity is required. We have the technology and the medical know-how to be able to keep this thing from spreading. But first we need to get the number of active cases to a low level, to make the problem manageable.

Maybe some states will try that, and a few may succeed. But I've concluded that most of the US is going to go the very painful route of opening soon and saturating medical resources. My personal strategy is to keep members of my household safe at home, to the extent possible.

 

[alloverx]

from the whitehouse briefing today

 

[dqd88]

Sure, life is just a matter of moving to a different column.

I guess my point is that it's not like the plague or the spanish flu, which would show an increase in the yearly death total because it would kill a bunch of young and otherwise healthy people who wouldn't normally have died soon.

We should know that we're incurring trillions of cost, and potentially an economic depression, which will yield zero change in net annual deaths. Which just seem bonkers if you really think about it. I find it peculiar that no one cares to do a cost/benefit analysis.

 

[renim]

I guess my point is that it's not like the plague or the spanish flu, which would show an increase in the yearly death total because it would kill a bunch of young and otherwise healthy people who wouldn't normally wouldn't be dying soon.

We should know that we're incurring trillions of cost, and potentially an economic depression, which will yield zero change in net annual deaths. Which just seem bonkers if you really think about it. I find it peculiar that no one cares to do a cost/benefit analysis.

The 2 standout cohorts is Oz seems to be cruise ship passengers/staff and aged care facilities's patients. The cruise ship deaths tended to be older but living it up. The aged care patients are basically waiting for heaven anyway. They tend to in located in what Australia terms 'high care'

 

[Norbert]

I guess my point is that it's not like the plague or the spanish flu, which would show an increase in the yearly death total because it would kill a bunch of young and otherwise healthy people who wouldn't normally wouldn't be dying soon.

We should know that we're incurring trillions of cost, and potentially an economic depression, which will yield zero change in net annual deaths. Which just seem bonkers if you really think about it. I find it peculiar that no one cares to do a cost/benefit analysis.

Why would they die soon? Having an underlying condition doesn't mean that you die soon. Where did you get that idea?

I find the way you talk about this subject quite ignorant of the right for a nice life past 60. How old are you?

 

[dqd88]

It will be very hard, but I am not of the belief that herd immunity is required. We have the technology and the medical know-how to be able to keep this thing from spreading. But first we need to get the number of active cases to a low level, to make the problem manageable.

The case load is at a low level outside of New York City.
Hospitals are cutting salaries and going into the red.
So, it is in their interest to open back up the economy. A busy economy creates ailments and harm (occupational accidents) that feeds the hospital systems.

Truth! Only life expectancy will change. No biggie.

I doubt life expectancy will change in any material way. The avg age of death of Covid is 80, which is above avg life expectancy. So even is we had "let it rip", it wouldn't have moved the needle much.

 

[renim]

'The odds ratio for IMV in patients with BMI >35 kg/m2 vs patients with BMI <25 kg/m2 was 7.36 (1.63‐33.14; p=0.02)'

Error - Cookies Turned Off

'

In this retrospective cohort study we analyzed the relationship between clinical characteristics, including body mass index (BMI), and the requirement for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) in 124 consecutive patients admitted in intensive care for SARS‐CoV‐2, in a single French center.

Results
Obesity (BMI >30 kg/m2) and severe obesity (BMI >35 kg/m2) were present in 47.6% and 28.2% of cases, respectively. Overall, 85 patients (68.6%) required IMV. The proportion of patients who required IMV increased with BMI categories (p<0.01, Chi square test for trend), and it was greatest in patients with BMI >35 kg/m2 (85.7%). In multivariate logistic regression, the need for IMV was significantly associated with male sex (p<0.05) and BMI (p<0.05), independent of age, diabetes, and hypertension. The odds ratio for IMV in patients with BMI >35 kg/m2 vs patients with BMI <25 kg/m2 was 7.36 (1.63‐33.14; p=0.02)'

Pretty damning and highly actionable.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I guess my point is that it's not like the plague or the spanish flu, which would show an increase in the yearly death total because it would kill a bunch of young and otherwise healthy people who wouldn't normally wouldn't be dying soon.

We should know that we're incurring trillions of cost, and potentially an economic depression, which will yield zero change in net annual deaths. Which just seem bonkers if you really think about it. I find it peculiar that no one cares to do a cost/benefit analysis.

I would love to see a serious cost benefit. The fact that even people in favor of the quick herd immunity plan haven't presented one makes me suspicious that it would not be good. The fact that no country on earth is trying that plan also makes me wary. I'd like to see someone else try it first.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I doubt life expectancy will change in any material way. The avg age of death of Covid is 80, which is above avg life expectancy. So even is we had "let it rip", it wouldn't have moved the needle much.

I'm pretty sure this is wrong (for the US at least). Here's the NYC data:

 

[renim]

 

[dqd88]

Why would they die soon? Having an underlying condition doesn't mean that you die soon. Where did you get that idea?

I find the way you talk about this subject quite ignorant of the right for a nice life past 60. How old are you?

I didn't say that having an underlying condition means you'll die soon.

Many people with underlying conditions will not die soon. True statement.

Also,
Young, healthy people have virtually zero chance of dying from Covid. True statement.
Young, healthy people who got Spanish Flu had a relatively high chance of dying from it. True

Most people who die from Covid have underlying conditions. True

These are all true statements.

How about this statement:
The "closer you are" to dying from an underlying condition, the more susceptible you are to dying of Covid if you get Coronavirus.

True? Probably
E.g., Someone with stage 4 cancer is much more likely to die of Covid than if they are in stage 1.
The more obese one is, the more likely they are to die of Covid.
If one has an advanced/severe stage of diabetes or kidney disease, probably more susceptible (from the data I've seen).

(we should be able to talk about this factually, without fear of being labeled insensitive.)

I find it odd to ask for my age; I'm Gen X, probably about average age of the posters on this forum.

 

[Daniel in SD]

'The odds ratio for IMV in patients with BMI >35 kg/m2 vs patients with BMI <25 kg/m2 was 7.36 (1.63‐33.14; p=0.02)'

18% of the US adult population has a BMI of over 35 (severe obesity).
Looks like only 23% of the US adult population has a BMI < 25 (healthy weight).

 

[dqd88]

I'm pretty sure this is wrong (for the US at least). Here's the NYC data:
View attachment 533813

Would have to view those numbers relative to totals. But it seems those numbers agree with my hypothesis.
It really depends on what % increase in net deaths for each age group are moved by Covid. Seems it would be an immaterial % from napkin

This is the problem Daniel. You can't just look at raw numbers. No context. Doesn't tell you anything. You have to view it in context - ie, relative to total deaths, relative to other infectious diseases, etc.

 

[EVNow]

Belgium continues to have a lot of fatalities.

Infact in countries with over 50 deaths, it has the highest deaths /1 M population.

ps : The testing situation is either bad (> 25% of tests are +ve) or they have a very high infection rate. Brazil seems to be the worst in this - over 50% are +ve.

 

[Norbert]

I didn't say that having an underlying condition means you'll die soon.

That's exactly what you said by juxtaposing it with the spanish flu.

EDIT: And again, how old are you?

 

[deonb]

I'm not exactly sure how vaccines work (other than the layman understanding that it is some weakened or vestigial form of the virus), but it would seem to me that essentially what you want is a replica of a virus where it looks exactly like the virus on the outside but on the inside there is no RNA. Without the RNA it would be harmless as it would have no ability to replicate. But I doubt this is how vaccines are made now because they can make you sick if done wrong; hence partly why they take so long (much testing needed to make sure they aren't harmful). But they should try my idea of removing the RNA from existing virus.

Not sure if you are joking here. But at the risk of getting r/woooosh'd, here goes:

That's called a protein subunit vaccine, and there are currently 15 of them already in test for SARS-Cov-2.

 

[EVNow]

I doubt life expectancy will change in any material way. The avg age of death of Covid is 80, which is above avg life expectancy. So even is we had "let it rip", it wouldn't have moved the needle much.

I think you are mathematically challenged. Every life lost sooner, reduces avg life expectancy.

BTW, do you have any older relatives - like parents ? Do they know you couldn't care less whether they are dead or alive ?