Coronavirus

[dhanson865]

Fires are coming. But PG&E and some cities are holding up battery backups URL has fires-blackouts-solar-batteries-essential at the end but the headline doesn't match the tags.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Isn’t it obvious he’s worried about the pending disaster in Q2 financials. I really don’t think this is about his stock. It’s about his baby (Tesla)

But if things go well, the stock (and every other stock) will apparently be getting a pass for an abject failure of a quarter! The market is forward looking! The fundamentals are (perhaps/arguably - that's a different different conversation) strong, so things will be ok (if we can ELIMINATE the virus, without needing a vaccine - which, as we all know, is definitely possible).

The "baby" has already said they're cool with a shutdown for a bit. They fortunately got a cash infusion. Is it ideal? Of course not. Is it something that can be recovered from? Sure. But the virus needs to be basically on the way out by June. No more second waves, no more apprehension - full speed ahead, no more virus to worry about. And that's only going to happen if we keep a firm grip on reality for the next couple weeks and do the right thing. Listen to Governor Newsom. Or, any of the scientists he is listening to.

 

[ZachF]

Isn’t it obvious he’s worried about the pending disaster in Q2 financials. I really don’t think this is about his stock. It’s about his baby (Tesla)

Every company in the world is going to have raw, hot, sunbaked garbage for q2 financials...

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Not all of that can be written off as inadequate testing and counting of Covid related deaths

That is a bit mysterious...however, I'd be careful to draw that conclusion too soon. It is a bit strange, but I can't find any data to say one way or another what might be happening (excess mortality data, etc.). Obviously demographics are another factor. I had heard a while back that people worry less about Africa because most of the people who would die are already dead. But we know not everyone who dies is old, so I expect that may end up being a marginally bad take.

What are your thoughts on when it will be reasonable to open up Fremont?

I'm ok with mid-May if cases are down about 5-10x from their current levels (maybe more for very high levels - I am thinking 5-10 *actual* cases per million people as a manageable target), there is testing and tracing infrastructure in place, and we are ready to go to phase 2.

Right now going back to work, as a few people on Twitter have said, it would be like cutting your parachute off after it had slowed you down, but while you're still 1000 feet above the ground.

EDIT: I said June - I meant mid-May! And that is a bit optimistic but it's possible I think.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Every company in the world is going to have raw, hot, sunbaked garbage for q2 financials...

Yeah, everyone gets a free pass as long as they survive. So, the mystery continues about why Elon has butt-hurt. Looks like he's getting his 1.5million plus shares with option to buy at $350 or whatever so not sure what his problem is.

It's like he really believes the nonsense he's spouting. Now he's trumpeting about the hospitals being half empty and bragging about inadvertently conducting a DDoS attack. Good times. I mean, it's a valid point that elective procedures need to be seriously pondered by hospitals, and some method of creating separation and allowing them to go forward should be put together, but that takes time. And instant testing! Maybe later he'll claim that that's what he was really upset about, but I think we can all see through that...

It's like he's going down the list of silly arguments that have been put up on Twitter about why we have to go back to work, and falling for every one of them. Mind-boggling! Meanwhile, the obviously correct answer is staring him right in the face...

 

[Norbert]

This idea that the "hard lockdown" is preventing spread is silly. We aren't in a hard lockdown, I just sat in traffic trying to pick up a furnace part I ordered. Yesterday in Philly there were crowds of hundreds congregated to watch the Blue Angels flyover. The fact that schools are cancelled for the year is just stupid.

Maybe Pennsylvania isn't. Maybe that's why Pennsylvania took spot #3 in deaths today (294), right after New York and New Jersey. Like that would be an example to follow.

Right now going back to work, as a few people on Twitter have said, it would be like cutting your parachute off after it had slowed you down, but while you're still 1000 feet above the ground.

Except we aren't much closer to the ground than when it started. (2 or 3 million minus 60,000 is still 2 or 3 million.)

That's an illusion created by the task force sweet talking.

Maybe we have more ventilators now. Do we have enough N95 masks to handle another 60,000? Still sold out for average folk. We have some more testing. But far from enough. However you define "enough". Still a blind spot.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Except we aren't much closer to the ground than when it started. (2 or 3 million minus 60,000 is still 2 or 3 million.)

No, that is confusing the analogy. It is an imperfect one (confuses velocity, potential energy, etc.). The ground is zero new cases. When you reach the top of the curve, max cases per day, you’ve flattened it - the parachute has slowed you way down to a gentle survivable rate of descent (without it you’d be plummeting towards doom).

But if you release at that point, you’ll just see acceleration - there’s no way to get a handle on things and you’ll speed up and fail. Once you are maybe 20 feet off the ground you might be able to cut the chute safely though.

Analogy is a bit rough. But flattening the curve was never about slowly burning through 2 million people with the aid of mitigation measures.

The whole point of flattening the curve was poorly communicated. It had two purposes - one was to minimize the hospital loading (wasn’t a problem for most places because action was taken plenty soon), but the *second* was to get cases to a manageable level to address via contact tracing, ASAP.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

See if you can convince her that the model Y is not a vote for Elon it's just a vote for a sustainable transportation.

Sadly she already has an electric vehicle it would replace. So sustainable transportation secured.

This is good news though. It'll save me a lot of money - other EVs are a lot cheaper than Teslas.

The bad news is she also wants me to get rid of my Model 3. She says she can't support this insanity.

 

[SMAlset]

Fires are coming. But PG&E and some cities are holding up battery backups URL has fires-blackouts-solar-batteries-essential at the end but the headline doesn't match the tags.

Thanks for that article. I haven’t seen this issue addressed yet in the press or in any of the public news conferences for covid updates, not by Gov. Newsom or any county/city officials here in the SF Bay area. The SIP affected us directly with regard to our solar/PW install. We were to have had our install (all outdoor & garage only house access) completed by March 31. The day our electrician was set to arrive to start our main panel upgrade prior to solar/PW, the announcement was made to shutdown. Our town is one of those that shut down their permit office for residential projects and also shut down the city inspectors for same. We had our permits pulled but dead in the water nonetheless. Now we have two large shopping center/housing projects going full stream so very frustrating seeing it being built out.

I am very anxious to see movement on this front for solar/PW installs for two reasons. One, our city has been hit with two PG&E shutdowns, one that affected us personally, so having power during the next one is very important to us. While I believe we will still be “up” next for install in our area, time before fire season is running out and doing this during pleasant weather is ticking away. As it was we waited 3 months to be scheduled and know they had a large backup of orders now 2 months behind. Two, even ignoring the fact that solar would reduce our costs during this SIP timeframe, I don’t want to be faced with needing to throw out food from our refrig/freezer in the next PG&E shutdown and sure I’m not alone. Throwing out food across counties-wide shutdowns like last year is really going to negatively impact everyone especially when groceries aren’t stocked and they are expecting a resurgence of covid-19 during the wildfire season. I think it’s critical to get as many homes connected during these months and hope the Governor and PG&E are discussing how they are going to protect homeowners during this upcoming wildfire season.

Before seeing this post and article I]we had called out electrician to see if he had any updates. He did say that he receives weekly newsletter from our city but still no movement. I discussed with him my concern and about losing food to spoilage and he said he hadn’t considered that aspect. He’s said he would send an email to them hoping they are being read and responded to for any updates or timelines. We’re forwarding this article to him. I found the May 1 or early May statements within hopeful. Truly hope that the State/cities consider this type of work essential and get it back on track. Thanks again.

 

[NicoV]

Just like Y2K. People forget that it was no big deal because of all the effort to limit the risk.
But Y2K was not a disease that could have a second or third wave.

 

[EVNow]

Every company in the world is going to have raw, hot, sunbaked garbage for q2 financials...

I think he might be worried about liquidity even though in the call Zach said they are not worried.

 

[EVNow]

Just like Y2K. People forget that it was no big deal because of all the effort to limit the risk.
But Y2K was not a disease that could have a second or third wave.

Yes, it’s like anti-vaxxers. If intervention is successful they think it was not needed.

 

[Norbert]

No, that is confusing the analogy. It is an imperfect one (confuses velocity, potential energy, etc.). The ground is zero new cases. When you reach the top of the curve, max cases per day, you’ve flattened it - the parachute has slowed you way down to a gentle survivable rate of descent (without it you’d be plummeting towards doom).

But if you release at that point, you’ll just see acceleration - there’s no way to get a handle on things and you’ll speed up and fail. Once you are maybe 20 feet off the ground you might be able to cut the chute safely though.

Analogy is a bit rough. But flattening the curve was never about slowly burning through 2 million people with the aid of mitigation measures.

The whole point of flattening the curve was poorly communicated. It had two purposes - one was to minimize the hospital loading (wasn’t a problem for most places because action was taken plenty soon), but the *second* was to get cases to a manageable level to address via contact tracing, ASAP.

I know what you want to say. I'm not arguing with you personally.

Still, generally, the parachute is the only thing we have: there is no ground that we have come closer to.
(Except we gave the treatment/vaccine research more time.)

In order to improve the situation, we have to improve the parachute. (More masks, test & trace.) If it slows down enough, we might change to a parachute that allows us to ease on mitigation. Perhaps we get to the level of South Korea. But it won't simply be "over soon". That's the illusion that has taken hold far too much. Maybe it is seasonal and the season is over soon? OK, show me the evidence that there is a seasonal decline not due to mitigation. (Not you personally.) New hot spots are flaring up, are they not?

 

[EVNow]

That is a bit mysterious...however, I'd be careful to draw that conclusion too soon. It is a bit strange, but I can't find any data to say one way or another what might be happening (excess mortality data, etc.). Obviously demographics are another factor. I had heard a while back that people worry less about Africa because most of the people who would die are already dead. But we know not everyone who dies is old, so I expect that may end up being a marginally bad take.

Malaysia and Thailand have life expectancy just a year or two less than US. They have large dense cities but are not rich like Korea, Japan or Australia. So they make interesting cases. Similar countries like Mexico and Brazil have bad outbreaks. All south Asian countries have similar mortality.

Another interesting comparison is Iran and Iraq.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Perhaps we get to the level of South Korea. But it won't simply be "over soon". That's the illusion that has taken hold far too much.

Yeah, the goal is to get to South Korea or Australia or New Zealand (or even China). Obviously without a vaccine it won’t just go away - constant vigilance will be required and things won’t be completely normal. The idea is that people will be able to go about their business, though, with basically zero risk. Small outbreaks, quickly detected and squashed, will occur, but they will be strongly suppressed and the idea is they don’t get any momentum. That is not “over.” But for most people, effectively, it is. There would be no need to worry about restaurants. Sporting events should even be possible.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Folks, I hereby present to you the CEO of Tesla:

WTF.

 

[SVMike]

Mostly safe much of the time, not even remotely totally safe. You are certainly better off with a mask anytime there will be non-family members within vision range. The easiest way to show this is to stand downwind of a person smoking. You will be able to smell the smoke far further than two metres. You can't smell the virus, but it acts the same way.

The vast majority of infections are from family members. So why would you give them a pass?

I don't think smoke is the same as small mucus droplets containing a virus.
You can smell smoke from at least 50 to 100 feet away.
Virus droplets large enough to cause an infection don't travel that far before dropping to the ground or evaporating and killing the virus.
Numerous studies and CDC and WHO guidelines are based on this

 

[SVMike]

And that's only going to happen if we keep a firm grip on reality for the next couple weeks and do the right thing. Listen to Governor Newsom. Or, any of the scientists he is listening to.

Some things he's doing are OK. But not all. For example the outside policies, such as the beaches. He's going to just close them all.
Where is the science. Who has been infected while surfing? Or sitting at the beach? I'm not saying it is not possible to get infected at the beach...but why not just enforce a mandatory 10 foot distance between families? And/or limit the total crowd?

BTW most of the crowded beach photos have been taken with long telephoto lenses which make it look a lot worse than it is.
Allowing, even encouraging, healthy outdoor activity that is low risk and reminding (enforcing) social distancing is likely to get more people to be OK with a longer time until the average person gets back to work. Remember, many of these people probably just lost their jobs.

There is no shortage of people to hire as lifeguards, rangers, "distance" monitors, etc. And hiring them is better than paying them unemployment.

Note: I rarely go to the beach and don't care to go myself, virus or no virus.

 

[renim]

Australia gets 10,000,000 PCR tests in addition to current 500,000 used todate.

7 minute mark to 12 minute mark.
Andrew Forrest (Mining Philanthropist) personally actioned this into existence with his Chinese counterparty BGI's Wang.

(for context, Australia has 8,500,000 households.)

 

[lascavarian]

Numerous studies and CDC and WHO guidelines are based on this

There is an interesting video of how things spread in a commercial airplane passenger cabin making the rounds. Seems to me distance is your friend but 6’ seems mostly like a starting point. Testing And tracing is going to help add some light as I see it.