Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

France Discovers Undiagnosed Coronavirus Patient From Last Year

Bloomberg so I won't link, but the headline says it all. Frenchy with cv19 admitted back in late December. Just like the far less contagious Swine Flu, we're gonna find out in retrospect that this spread far wider and earlier than anyone projected.

Certainly an interesting find. I'm interested to see where this particular virus genome fits in in the overall tree. It did sound like they already suspected this to some extent, based on the phylogenetic tree they've developed (the French genomes do not correspond with the known travel import cases). Definitely want to get the sequence on this one to rule out any possibility of a false positive (I think unlikely that it is).

It's totally possible (though I think generally unlikely, so would be unlikely to have this happen in all countries around the world) for Wuhan to seed outbreaks elsewhere this early (say, December sometime). It started in Wuhan in late November, so it's possible that an export could have occurred before the number of cases became noticeable there. But since there were so few cases in Wuhan at that time, it would likely only throw a spark to one or two places elsewhere in the world (if any).

But note that France's timeline obviously had to be early than the US - their outbreak got bad earlier than ours. Since known imports to the US started in mid-January (accompanied by unknown imports undoubtedly), it seems entirely possible that France was a few weeks earlier.

And remember that the total number of cases may not be altered that much by the earlier behavior in an epidemic. Remember, the rapidity of spread is stochastic at the beginning. The behavior of the first few imports can dramatically affect how large the epidemic gets. For example, the first introduction could be a superspreader. Or, on the other hand, it could be a solitary individual with few contacts. This will dramatically affect the size of the epidemic down the road.

I doubt this will affect the overall number of infected cases much, though undoubtedly there is uncounted mortality and plenty (in absolute terms) of undiagnosed cases in January in France. But since they're early in the explosive exponential growth, there are relatively few of them compared to the total number of cases now.

We should just rely on good serological testing to determine the prevalence of antibodies.

I imagine the Nextstrain folks will be taking a look at this - keep your eyes open for their analysis.

 

[PeterJA]

I don't have any issue with compassionate use of a non-toxic medicine vitamin or nutritional supplement. It might help. And it's probably less toxic than a lot of other things. So no issues there, but I just have an issue with representing something as proven if it has not cleared certain basic scientific hurdles.

Agreed. I didn't say it was proven, just "very likely," as you can see from the post you replied to. So why are you telling me I don't like or accept scientific method, when I have been linking my sources including papers fully referenced to peer-reviewed science?

Obviously we have to await the results of the Chinese double-blind randomized trials and then of course depending on what that shows you want it ideally have that result replicated one way or the other. I realize that's a tedious and drawn-out process but it's the only way to vet the real value of any biologic treatment.

Await the results before we do what? Try to save lives with existing science? You are contradicting your first sentence.

As for the meme of Suspicion about the corrupting effects of big Pharma you are singing to the choir.

Glad to hear it. Others here accused me of posting conspiracy theories.

 

[azaz]

Oops

Exclusive: Government scientist Neil Ferguson resigns after breaking lockdown rules to meet his married lover

Prof Ferguson allowed the woman to visit him at home during the lockdown while lecturing the public on the need for strict social distancing​

Exclusive: Government scientist Neil Ferguson resigns after breaking lockdown rules to meet his married lover

elon attacking this guy on twitter in response to that guy Alex Berenson who is just a complete hack

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Agreed. I didn't say it was proven, just "very likely," as you can see from the post you replied to. So why are you telling me I don't like or accept scientific method, when I have been linking my sources including papers fully referenced to peer-reviewed science?


Await the results before we do what? Try to save lives with existing science? You are contradicting your first sentence.


Glad to hear it. Others here accused me of posting conspiracy theories.

If you could keep us updated on the demographics of the groups under study, what their initial status was, what their final status was, and final mortality rate, whenever the studies you are tracking are completed, that would be appreciated. Would also like to know how this mortality rate compares to an equivalent control group, and what is the significance level ( p-value ) of any conclusions.

That way none of us here have to run down the scurvy rabbithole and we can just get some properly vetted summaries from you.

 

[DanCar]

I expect to see more criminal activity by masked men: Chandler police release sketch of man in face mask wanted for sexual assault

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Exactly!

Not exactly!

 

[Daniel in SD]

I expect to see more criminal activity by masked men: Chandler police release sketch of man in face mask wanted for sexual assault

I expect to see way less criminal activity in cities with major outbreaks. So, getting rid of masks will definitely lower crime!

Although, major crimes in New York City saw a whopping decrease for the month of April compared to 2019, the city has seen an uptick in murders and burglaries, according to the latest NYPD statistics.
According to the data released Monday, major index crimes decreased 28.5 percent for the month of April when compared to the same period last year. In total, there were 5,121 crimes reported throughout April 2020 compared to 7,162 in April 2019.
The data also found that during that one month period, there was a 26 percent decrease in the number of robberies (679 compared to 913); a 32 percent decrease in felony assaults (1,130 compared to 1,652); and a 52 percent decrease in grand larcenies (1,566 compared to 3,250.)
Overall crime also fell in every borough, within the transit system and across public housing.
Additionally, New York City saw a 9.7 percent decrease in the number of shooting incidents for April, (56 compared to 62).

Uptick in Murders and Burglaries Driving Crime in NYC During COVID-19 Pandemic: NYPD
I love how this is the headline for 28.5% drop in major crimes. If it bleeds, it leads.

 

[RandomJohnny]

This thread seems to act somewhat as a barometer. The more TDS and references to old fake news stories continually repeating about Trump advocating bleach,Trumps is a racist, Trump is a Russian, the closer we must be to digging out of this mess.

You sir have hit the nail on the head.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

COVID Tracking report:
259k tests, 22.4k new cases (8.6% positive) (Compare to 202k with 24k new cases, 11.9% positive a week ago)

2527 new deaths. (Compare to 2200 a week ago)

All pretty good news, other than the deaths, which obviously aren't a surprise. With increased testing capacity, we may get better coverage of deaths as well (undoubtedly there are many missed deaths up to this point).

Looking good. Let's keep hoping for that ramp in testing we are aiming for. We REALLY need to see 400k by the end of this week.

If we could get to 5% positive by next week, that would really indicate we might be able to get a handle on this. It really needs to happen quickly with restrictions being reduced in some places and a little more mobility going on. Memorial Day is coming, and we need to have a firm lid on things before that comes, as that will be a tough day for a lot of people.

-----

Locally in San Diego, we're lagging. We're at 2000 tests average (about) out of of daily goal of 5200.

We have 135 contact tracers - our goal is to get to 450 in the county. So far, 4903 investigations have been reported (we've had 4200 cases).

We have 180 people in Public Health Isolation rooms.

-----

I wonder whether Elon could spend some time working with Alameda county to ramp up their testing capacity? After he's finished snuggling with X Æ A-12.

 

[RandomJohnny]

As for the meme of Suspicion about the corrupting effects of big Pharma you are singing to the choir.

Singing to the choir? Here, lol, total lie.

Alas, this deadly combination of arrogance and ignorance is typical of many doctors trained by an industry dominated by pharmaceutical companies.

This is the truth, amen.

 

[dfwatt]

Agreed. I didn't say it was proven, just "very likely," as you can see from the post you replied to. So why are you telling me I don't like or accept scientific method, when I have been linking my sources including papers fully referenced to peer-reviewed science?


Await the results before we do what? Try to save lives with existing science? You are contradicting your first sentence.

You're distorting what I'm saying in order to create straw men that you can easily knock down, that in order to claim you're being victimized here and that your statements are being distorted!

Your behavior and the level of your anger is part of the problem. First of all I said that in order for something to become part of a standard treatment protocol it has to clear a double-blind placebo-controlled trial and preferably two of them. I also said in the meantime if it's non-toxic and relatively safe it should be considered for compassionate use. So there's no contradiction there and I'm not contradicting myself in any way in making those two statements.

You're sometimes a bit like a rotating machine gun here just firing off at people. I think you need to take a break, cool down, and come back and discuss things preferably without this much hypersensitivity and manifest irritation. Open scientific questions should be approached for what they are. Unproven, open to verification but also falsification. We going to have our suspicions and beliefs but in the end what counts is the weight of evidence.

PS this is what Rodney Dangerfield called "A Hard room to work". Being thin-skinned is not a benefit here.

 

[deonb]

Does anybody have the quest diagnostic test number for the new IgG test that has a 99.9% specificity? (They did a study of 1000 samples that pre-date SARS-Cov-2 from last year, and found 1 false positive).

I think it's the one from Abbott.

I think it has a 100% sensitivity after 17 days or something. Can remember the post well, but not even Google can make sense out of this forum thread...

 

[PeterJA]

If you could keep us updated on the demographics of the groups under study, what their initial status was, what their final status was, and final mortality rate, whenever the studies you are tracking are completed, that would be appreciated. Would also like to know how this mortality rate compares to an equivalent control group, and what is the significance level /p-value of any conclusions.

That way none of us here have to run down the scurvy rabbithole and we can just get some properly-vetted summaries from you.

You can keep yourself updated by subscribing to the following free news service, which is probably the best source for accessible and scientifically vetted summaries of vitamin C research. One of the editors, Richard Z. Cheng, MD, PhD, helped set up all three clinical trials of IV-C for COVID-19 underway in China. His blog is another good source.
Orthomolecular News
Cheng Integrative Health Center Blog

I'm not interested in running Story Time for folks who click Funny on my attempts to educate them.

 

[azaz]

Elon Musk on Twitter

"@slashdot Important to distinguish died with covid vs died because of covid. Also, distinguish between tested positive for covid or only had symptoms."

Just mindbogglingly stupid. im sure people have tried to explain why this isn't evidence of some conspiracy, why the numbers are undercounted if anything but he just doesn't care

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

. One of the editors, Richard Z. Cheng, MD, PhD, helped set up all three clinical trials of IV-C for COVID-19 underway in China.

I guess we'll see the results of the trials. It doesn't sound like they've done any double-blind placebo-controlled randomized trials for vitamin C for COVID-19 yet, based on my perusal of the published data.

I did find that what is claimed on one of the websites you posted is false: (Shanghai government has not approved Vitamin-C as a treament.)

No, the Shanghai government has not recommended intravenous vitamin C as a treatment for COVID-19

It sounds like we'll find out whether it actually has an effect later in the year - if the results are significant enough, anyway.

It sounds like it can be a painful treatment, and there are contraindications, but in many cases perhaps there would be no downside (I'm not a doctor so I have no idea).

Most importantly, Dr. Greger has no opinion on the matter (other than to make sure you eat a healthy vegetarian diet and get plenty of exercise).

 

[PeterJA]

You're distorting what I'm saying in order to create straw men that you can easily knock down, that in order to claim you're being victimized here and that your statements are being distorted!

Your behavior and the level of your anger is part of the problem. First of all I said that in order for something to become part of a standard treatment protocol it has to clear a double-blind placebo-controlled trial and preferably two of them. I also said in the meantime if it's non-toxic and relatively safe it should be considered for compassionate use. So there's no contradiction there and I'm not contradicting myself in any way in making those two statements.

You're sometimes a bit like a rotating machine gun here just firing off at people. I think you need to take a break, cool down, and come back and discuss things preferably without this much hypersensitivity and manifest irritation. Open scientific questions should be approached for what they are. Unproven, open to verification but also falsification. We going to have our suspicions and beliefs but in the end what counts is the weight of evidence.

This rings hollow from someone who first replied to me with the following, and has yet to support it with anything I said:

...I know you don't like hearing that... I'm not sure why that's so hard for you to accept.

Is it "hypersensitivity" to correct the record?

Right now, thousands of innocent people are dying every day because they trust a corrupt medical system, and because news of a nontoxic, non-drug treatment that very likely could save them is being suppressed by industry-captured media and government, and because most doctors and their victims have been taught to sneer at such treatments without even looking at the science.

Do I feel "manifest irritation" about that? I plead guilty.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Does anybody have the quest diagnostic test number for the new IgG test that has a 99.9% specificity? (They did a study of 1000 samples that pre-date SARS-Cov-2 from last year, and found 1 false positive).

I think it's the one from Abbott.

I think it has a 100% sensitivity after 17 days or something. Can remember the post well, but not even Google can make sense out of this forum thread...

I posted this: Coronavirus
The thread search on this forum works pretty well. There is a lot of repetition though. I'm guilty of it.

 

[RandomJohnny]

This rings hollow from someone who first replied to me with the following, and has yet to support it with anything I said:


Is it "hypersensitivity" to correct the record?

Right now, thousands of innocent people are dying every day because they trust a corrupt medical system, and because news of a nontoxic, non-drug treatment that very likely could save them is being suppressed by industry-captured media and government, and because most doctors and their victims have been taught to sneer at such treatments without even looking at the science.

Do I feel "manifest irritation" about that? I plead guilty.

good ole dfwatt, he will call you angry if he doesn't agree, maybe follow up with some big words, then he will put you on ignore. I call him Dr. Passive Aggressive.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

2527 new deaths

All pretty good news, other than the deaths, which obviously aren't a surprise.

These large numbers are due to Pennsylvania which reported a backlog of deaths. Probably on the order of 400 extra deaths attributable to that. So more like ~2100 is today's number. Which is in line with the prior week as expected.

 

[RandomJohnny]

Elon Musk on Twitter

"@slashdot Important to distinguish died with covid vs died because of covid. Also, distinguish between tested positive for covid or only had symptoms."

Just mindbogglingly stupid. im sure people have tried to explain why this isn't evidence of some conspiracy, why the numbers are undercounted if anything but he just doesn't care

You just don't stop do you. I haven't read this thread in like 2 weeks and I come by to check out the madness and you are still going on and on. You okay bro? Please stop acting like this is some fringe theory Elon is posting about. Do you work for the CDC or something? It doesn't look like you have anything to say that would convince anyone otherwise except just going on and on about how stupid Elon is and your "fringe" theory.