Coronavirus

[EVNow]

Here's a calculator where you input your age and condition. It tells you your chances of death.

Coronavirus Dashboard

40 to 59 is a big group. Wish there it was more granular.

Anyway some guy in that age group but with obesity (so good chance of Hypertension, T2D, Cardiovascular problems) is probably going around talking about herd immunity. He doesn't know about the 54% chance of fatality if he catches Covid.

 

[azaz]

Disingenuous people like Rogan framing the argument as endless lockdown till vaccine vs lockdown till we can test+trace is a disgrace. It’s also amazing that earlier Rogan was railing against media biases and slanted coverage yet he disingenuous presents the lockdown argument because of his own biases.

Some other coronavirus denialism being peddled here too in this Rogan/Musk podcast.

 

[Norbert]

The authors don't estimate an IFR, but a reddit thread has some interesting details, including an IFR estimate of about 0.49% (or slightly higher or lower depending on assumptions used for lag times of antibody test and fatalities).

If you take the current number of deaths (254, about 2 weeks later), and the lower end of the confidence interval, you get 0.83%.

I'm looking forward to the results from Italy which wants to do large scale (150,000) antibody testing soon.

 

[dfwatt]

Re post 14186
I think Cases of patients in nursing homes/ care facilities should be ignored when considering re-opening. They are by definition not in the public. Some of the stats show that 20 to 50% of all cases are in those care facilities which is really tragic and needs immediate attention.

So about Covid testing, it's only a snapshot if you are testing general public with no symptoms and not already in hospital.
If walk up testing, people may be infecting passers by before or after testing (or in the parking lot) so I'd think it may be pretty meaningless.

Regarding antibody testing, WHO last time I saw is still saying no evidence that presence of antibodys means immunity. So if you believe the scientists, there is no value to antibody testing. We have to believe the scientists right?

Wow. Where are you getting your information that 20 to 50% of cases are in nursing homes? And where are you getting the misinformation that scientists believe antibodies confer no protection? Love to see your sources on that one. As for your white washing of our testing failure, people have already lambasted that so I won't beat a dead horse. You've got a lot of concentrated questionable assertions in a compact space.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

The authors don't estimate an IFR, but a reddit thread has some interesting details, including an IFR estimate of about 0.49% (or slightly higher or lower depending on assumptions used for lag times of antibody test and fatalities).

Conveniently you pick the wrong post. Time and time again you do the same darn thing. It is infuriating. Lives are at stake, man. Maybe Reddit is not the best source?

"while significantly lower seroprevalence was observed among those 50 and older (3.7%, 95% CI 0.99-6.0, p=0.0008)."

If you want to calculate the IFR, you have to make some assumptions about attack rate. (A uniform attack rate seems reasonable if you're calculating an IFR, as far as I am concerned, but that is subject to debate of course.) Clearly in Geneva, the older population has shielded themselves (for now) from the virus!

This will lower their overall number of fatalities! In spite of this, the elderly have still dominated the fatalities, as you pointed out.

Here's the demographics for Switzerland and the details on the distribution of cases. Note that in spite of the 2.3x lower prevalence in the older population (over 50), they STILL show up with 50% of the cases! That's because the likelihood of being symptomatic increases as you get older! So they are more likely to be identified as cases. It's easiest to just look at deaths, which are (arguably) less likely to be missed.

I'll let someone else do the math here, figure out all the delays, etc., since I don't have time right now, but all the information is here now - seroprevalance in each age bracket and deaths in each age bracket. And the demographic pyramid for Switzerland (which is required for figuring out IFR for a particular population once you determine mortality risk in each category).

Looks to me like the IFR is going to exceed 1%!

Key points:
1) Above 50 has 2.3x less seroprevalence than the younger group (non-children).
2) Above 50 dominates the deaths (basically all of them)

I can read French, so this is all clear to me, though I think these pictures don't require that ability.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Pennsylvania still about 200 deaths shy of our total for the 2018 flu season. Though we'll likely surpass it this time next week.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Pennsylvania still about 200 deaths shy of our total for the 2018 flu season. Though we'll likely surpass it this time next week.

Source? I see 258 deaths in Pennsylvania 2017-2018 flu season. Looks like you've exceeded it...by about a factor of 15. (Not surprisingly!) Am I missing something???

EDIT: Note, if you assume uniform distribution of 2018 flu deaths, 61k (Source: CDC), you get:
12.8million/330million * 61k = 2360 deaths. But obviously this could be way off if disease burden was not uniform.

I assume the discrepancy vs. these numbers are the confirmed positive deaths (lower, 258) vs. estimated deaths (higher)???

Anyway, it's not just a flu, bro. That was with no lockdown! We're matching those numbers with just a small percentage of the population exposed!

Archive

https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/Documents/Diseases and Conditions/Flu/Influenza Season Summary 2017-2018.pdf

 

[linux-works]

Utah governor signs bill protecting businesses from coronavirus lawsuits

Utah Gov. Gary Herbert (R) signed legislation Monday that gives Utah businesses protection from litigation stemming from an individual contracting coronavirus on their property, as the state begins to allow some of its businesses to reopen amid the global pandemic.

Under the law, business owners are "immune from civil liability for damages or an injury resulting from exposure of an individual to COVID-19," that happens at their premises. The legislation does not protect businesses, however, if they display "willful misconduct; reckless infliction of harm; or intentional infliction of harm."

and

Utah isn't the first state to grant this kind of protection to certain establishments. ABC News reported that at least 15 states, either through executive order or legislation, have given legal protection to nursing homes and long-term care facilities.

this really highlights the cultural and idealogical divide in the US.

I want to get that list of 15, but I can imagine who most of them are, just based on history, alone ;(

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Source? I see 258 deaths in Pennsylvania 2017-2018 flu season. Looks like you've exceeded it...by about a factor of 15. (Not surprisingly!) Am I missing something???

It's not just a flu, bro.

Archive

https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/Documents/Diseases and Conditions/Flu/Influenza Season Summary 2017-2018.pdf

View attachment 539559 View attachment 539560

2,670 Pennsylvanians were lost to influenza in the 2018 season.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

2,670 Pennsylvanians were lost to influenza in the 2018 season.

Please, post your source. I posted mine, from the Pennsylvania Department of Health. It shows 258 influenza-associated deaths. I am confused!

I should note that your numbers DO seem correct if you roughly assume uniform distribution of the ~61k influenza deaths in 2018 to the Pennsylvania population.

So maybe we're dealing with reported (confirmed) vs. actual deaths here.

 

[bkp_duke]

Utah governor signs bill protecting businesses from coronavirus lawsuits

Utah Gov. Gary Herbert (R) signed legislation Monday that gives Utah businesses protection from litigation stemming from an individual contracting coronavirus on their property, as the state begins to allow some of its businesses to reopen amid the global pandemic.

Under the law, business owners are "immune from civil liability for damages or an injury resulting from exposure of an individual to COVID-19," that happens at their premises. The legislation does not protect businesses, however, if they display "willful misconduct; reckless infliction of harm; or intentional infliction of harm."

and

Utah isn't the first state to grant this kind of protection to certain establishments. ABC News reported that at least 15 states, either through executive order or legislation, have given legal protection to nursing homes and long-term care facilities.

this really highlights the cultural and idealogical divide in the US.

I want to get that list of 15, but I can imagine who most of them are, just based on history, alone ;(

Well, this isn't really very unique to the US.

Pandemics generally fall under "act of God / nature" by most legal definitions. For this reason, these businesses are most likely not covered at all by any insurance policies they have (most policies have exclusions for acts of God / nature).

As a business owner, I would call this pretty reasonable legislation. I take care of my employees, but something as prevalent as a pandemic I should not be responsible for legally.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Please, post your source. I posted mine, from the Pennsylvania Department of Health. It shows 258 influenza-associated deaths. I am confused!

I should note that your numbers DO seem correct if you roughly assume uniform distribution of the ~61k influenza deaths in 2018 to the Pennsylvania population.

So maybe we're dealing with reported (confirmed) vs. actual deaths here.

My source? It's just a fact. You don't think 256 might maaaaybe be a misprint in a season where 61,000 people nationwide?

 

[bkp_duke]

My source? It's just a fact. You don't think 256 might maaaaybe be a misprint in a season where 61,000 people nationwide?

Comon, really?

You make the claim, and someone asks you for the source, and you reply with that?

Really kills any credibility.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Looks like someone on Reddit is tirelessly trying to stem the tide of misinformation and irresponsible behavior.

They made the same point I did, and calculate an IFR of 1.3%. Not surprised.

The IFR will of course depend on the population and inherent attack rates. But, 1% seems like a good ballpark number we should ALL proceed with at this point. It seems like the data is becoming increasingly clear on that. Finally.

Can we stop credulously posting information that suggests otherwise? At least, we should try to understand why data that comes in may not be supported (and in the unlikely event it is supported and seems legitimate, incorporate that information into our understanding).

 

[deonb]

My source? It's just a fact. You don't think 256 might maaaaybe be a misprint in a season where 61,000 people nationwide?

Are you just anti source in general? Or maybe you're not sure how to copy and paste a URL?

You can easily give him the link to the CDC site, but you've always refused to post sources, when it would be so easy for you to do that. Instead you always argue that people should just accept your word - when everybody else here posts sources (sometimes not credible ones, but at least they're there).

Here it is. Opened the CDC site. Click on the URL at the top to highlight it. Pressed Control+C, came back to TMC, pressed Control+V.
Stats of the States - Influenza/Pneumonia Mortality

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Are you just anti source in general? Or maybe you're not sure how to copy and paste a URL?

You can easily give him the link to the CDC site, but you've always refused to post sources, when it would be so easy for you to do that. Instead you always argue that people should just accept your word - when everybody else here posts sources (sometimes not credible ones, but at least they're there).

Here it is. Opened the CDC site. Click on the URL at the top to highlight it. Pressed Control+C, came back to TMC, pressed Control+V.
Stats of the States - Influenza/Pneumonia Mortality

Thank you. That is what I was looking for. I was searching around but didn't find that...

2887 deaths from influenza in Pennsylvania in 2017-2018.

Those numbers seem about right. It looks like Pennsylvania's (much lower) numbers are confirmed cases. But I believe the CDC numbers are likely correct.

That was a pretty bad flu season! Glad we have vaccines!

Overall flu burden (in the US) that year was 45 million infections, 61k deaths.
Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2017–2018 influenza season | CDC

So about 2.1 million influenza infections in Pennsylvania resulted in those 2887 deaths (assuming uniform IFR across the states).

For comparison, we are at about 3572 deaths from coronavirus in Pennsylvania now (including likely deaths from COVID-19 I think, went up a lot this Tuesday), with about 300-500k infections (to be clear, this is my made up number - COVID Projections predicts 600k infections now, 400k three weeks ago, corresponding to the death number - and there are 56k confirmed infections). Looks like it's at least 6 times more deadly!

I'm sorry I got confused on the flu data (and questioned it). But I'm not sure what the original post was about, since we already easily exceed that 2017-2018 flu mortality, in one month, rather than an entire season.

 

[bkp_duke]

Are you just anti source in general? Or maybe you're not sure how to copy and paste a URL?

You can easily give him the link to the CDC site, but you've always refused to post sources, when it would be so easy for you to do that. Instead you always argue that people should just accept your word - when everybody else here posts sources (sometimes not credible ones, but at least they're there).

Here it is. Opened the CDC site. Click on the URL at the top to highlight it. Pressed Control+C, came back to TMC, pressed Control+V.
Stats of the States - Influenza/Pneumonia Mortality

Thank you. Informative.

 

[shinytop]

Looks like Covid can be detected in semen. Bet that test is more comfortable than the nasal swab.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Are you just anti source in general? Or maybe you're not sure how to copy and paste a URL?

You can easily give him the link to the CDC site, but you've always refused to post sources, when it would be so easy for you to do that. Instead you always argue that people should just accept your word - when everybody else here posts sources (sometimes not credible ones, but at least they're there).

Here it is. Opened the CDC site. Click on the URL at the top to highlight it. Pressed Control+C, came back to TMC, pressed Control+V.
Stats of the States - Influenza/Pneumonia Mortality

It's insulting. As a person who would never pop on a message board and blatantly lie about an easily verified statistic, it's insulting to my character. Speaks to the mindset of the replying poster I guess.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Men have testicular viral reservoirs!

Delayed clearance of SARS-CoV2 in male compared to female patients: High ACE2 expression in testes suggests possible existence of gender-specific viral reservoirs