Coronavirus

[Causalien]

Trump thinks a mask would make him look weak. Most other politicians wear them in crowds.

Mandatory anything gets push back here, e.g. Orange County death threats and Dollar Store security guard in Michigan shot after telling a customer to put on a mask. Governors, mayors, etc. also have limited authority to unilaterally impose rules (the whole checks and balances thing). Most lockdowns and mask rules they put in place weren't technically mandatory. Many that were wouldn't have withstood court challenges. When pushed the government usually folds -- just like that uneducated fascist who unjustly tried to prevent Musk from saving the world with his two ton cars.

Except in your country, ha. Quebec public health director says masks don't work.

We all have that one special kid.

What I meant is that. In the beginning. I remember even some M. D. Were arguing against wearing mask.

My M. D. Friend is now saying that masks do work. But she's an anti vaxxer and due to her freedom she's not wearing one.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I am not apologizing for Trump and his fantasyland, but I do think that the media should focus on the subtleties of testing and rates of positive tests more than the top line "positive" numbers. There have been a few spikes due to backlogs recently and they really do not indicate a nationwide increase (yet). Unfortunately discussions about the relative merits of epi curves vs. by-report-date graphs are probably a bit too much in the weeds for the 6 o'clock news.

There's a clear, precise story that can be told about a deteriorating situation in few states (which may expand to other states!) - and the media spending some time carefully digging to really understand what is going on in those few states where there appear to be problems would be quite informative for everyone. And it might help inoculate the public against this silly Twitter spin. Though perhaps I am too optimistic.

If a clear picture emerges of what has gone wrong in the few states that have serious problems, perhaps the public can be informed and demand from their government what is needed to prevent the outbreak from spreading to other states.

 

[shinytop]

The problem with the states with rising cases is pretty clear. They are mostly Republican governors who hurry to kiss His Orangeness's butt in case he wins in November. They raced to see who could open first and the most and will not back down. Here in Florida we have had many consecutive days of record new cases and are still reopening more.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

The problem with the states with rising cases is pretty clear. They are mostly Republican governors who hurry to kiss His Orangeness's butt in case he wins in November. They raced to see who could open first and the most and will not back down. Here in Florida we have had many consecutive days of record new cases and are still reopening more.

It's not a great picture in Florida, with positivity doubling since mid-May. However, Florida doesn't provide a proper epi curve (by date of symptom onset), so I can't say with certainty whether a portion of the "new" positive tests are some backlog of positives.

I would guess that it's going to get worse this week. But I hope I'm wrong.

 

[dhanson865]

my local picture still looks worse, tick mark at about 48 on top graph is the same spot as near week 6 on bottom graph (I didn't align the width of the graphs).

end result number of people in the hospital here now is worse in phase 2 reopening than it was in phase 1. Testing has not increased in phase 2 compared to phase 1.

 

[dfwatt]

We all have that one special kid.

What I meant is that. In the beginning. I remember even some M. D. Were arguing against wearing mask.

My M. D. Friend is now saying that masks do work. But she's an anti vaxxer and due to her freedom she's not wearing one.

Which Freedom does she think she's protecting the most? The freedom to give infection or the freedom to get infection?

 

[Causalien]

Which Freedom does she think she's protecting the most? The freedom to give infection or the freedom to get infection?

I have since stopped trying to figure her out. I stopped at M.D. + AntiVaxxer.

 

[dfwatt]

I have since stopped trying to figure her out. I stopped at M.D. + AntiVaxxer.

Yes that's a disturbing contradiction in terms for sure.

 

[Norbert]

https://www.fda.gov/media/138945/download

FDA has concluded that, based on this new information and other information discussed in the attached memorandum, it is no longer reasonable to believe that oral formulations of HCQ and CQ may be effective in treating COVID-19, nor is it reasonable to believe that the known a nd potential benefits of these products outweigh their known and potential risks. Accordingly, FDA revokes the EUA for emergency use of HCQ and CQ to treat COVID-19, pursuant to section 564(g)(2) of the Act. As of the date of this letter, the oral formulations of HCQ and CQ are no longer authorized by FDA to treat COVID-19.

(Not sure what it means that this is specified for "oral" formulations.)

 

[madodel]

https://www.fda.gov/media/138945/download


(Not sure what it means that this is specified for "oral" formulations.)

Maybe suppositories are aok?

 

[PeterJA]

Question for the amateur (or pro) epidemiologists here:

Many folks are concerned about rising numbers of cases, apparently assuming rising deaths will follow as determined by a fixed CFR (whatever it is). But since fatality of the disease varies with a person's immune strength, it occurs to me that continued or increased testing may be counting more cases in healthier people who are not going to die.

Do the Covid data authorities that you follow attempt to correct for this effect?

 

[dfwatt]

Maybe suppositories are aok?

Yes the hydroxychloroquine suppositories with bleach have been proven effective. Definite cure for idiocy, and other Trump associated nonsense.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Question for the amateur (or pro) epidemiologists here:

Many folks are concerned about rising numbers of cases, apparently assuming rising deaths will follow as determined by a fixed CFR (whatever it is). But since fatality varies with a person's immune strength, it occurs to me that continued or increased testing may be counting more cases in healthier people who are not going to die.

Do the Covid data authorities that you follow attempt to correct for this effect?

Of course and that seems like the most likely explanation for why daily deaths have fallen while daily case numbers have remained constant over the last couple months. What's disturbing about what's happening right now is that the number of cases is increasing in many states without a corresponding increase in testing. The positive test percentage is the metric that the COVID data sites track and that has been going up even as testing has increased.
It's possible that the people being infected right now are younger and healthier but I haven't seen that being tracked. I did hear the Florida governor talking about how there are a lot of cases right now among agricultural workers and that they should have a much lower chance of being hospitalized (younger and lots of vitamin D ).

 

[Doggydogworld]

https://www.fda.gov/media/138945/download

(Not sure what it means that this is specified for "oral" formulations.)

It means medical geniuses can no longer tell people to take HCQ, but they can still tweet about it.

In other news, Sweden 7-day death total fell below 200 today. They paid a higher initial price, but have bent the curve downward without lockdowns or other severe restrictions.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

I have since stopped trying to figure her out. I stopped at M.D. + AntiVaxxer.

Well MDs are just practitioners, not researchers & considering their relative lack of education, don’t deserve the D in MD, considering the original meaning of ‘Doctor’

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

It means medical geniuses can no longer tell people to take HCQ, but they can still tweet about it.

In other news, Sweden 7-day death total fell below 200 today. They paid a higher initial price, but have bent the curve downward without lockdowns or other severe restrictions.

Sweden has the 7th highest death rate on the planet

 

[Norbert]

From the comments I conclude that oral formulations were the only ones ever approved for COVID-19. ; )

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Many folks are concerned about rising numbers of cases, apparently assuming rising deaths will follow as determined by a fixed CFR (whatever it is)

Nobody thinks that there will be a fixed CFR at all. That's obviously not true. Furthermore, people also realize that IFR will likely go down with time, if we can do a good job of keeping it out of vulnerable populations (obviously there are other factors too).

But as has been pointed out by me before, that's like having a peeing section in a swimming pool. If a lot of people start peeing, the water starts to get pretty yellow eventually (especially if everyone's been taking those vitamins you keep on harping on about).

Right now measures appear to be working but I worry about the long term - plus at some point people will want to visit the grandparents!

Another aspect is that you have to look at the number of people hospitalized who are young. Outcomes are not binary - you don't just die, or get 100% better. Sometimes you get a double lung transplant!

It's possible that the people being infected right now are younger and healthier but I haven't seen that being tracked.

I've been specifically looking at AZ, TX, SC, and NC, and those states are definitely skewing towards younger people being infected. It's pretty clear that efforts to keep infections out of LTCFs are being successful. However, I believe that will only be effective as long as overall disease burden remains low. And that is problematic.

AZ provides data on (current) hospitalizations by age. And cases by age. For example. It's not a pretty picture in AZ, particularly, right now.

 

[SMAlset]

Business Insider has a story today 6/15 "Fauci: Mask advice was because of doctors' shortages from the start". Like we here didn't know that (sarcasm) but guess some people in the country thought it meant people shouldn't need to wear them at all, period. No the public's safety was second to medical and emergency workers. Really not hard to understand. BI's story (on Apple News) originated from a Fauci video interview with The Street, as linked to here: https://www.thestreet.com/video/dr-fauci-masks-changing-directive-coronavirus

Will actively publicizing the reason as to why the advice was initially given to the public result in more people wearing masks now that masks are available? I think it will take a lot more hospitalizations and deaths to sink in with some, probably more so if it hits their home/family, but I still believe others simply won't care. Today there was a story I saw about a woman in NYC at a bagel shop who wasn't wearing a mask assault another woman and those around her by intentionally going up to them and coughing several times at her/them exclaiming well I already have antibodies! and calling her names (Maskless woman at NYC bagel shop intentionally coughs on patron who calls her out: 'Horrific behavior'). Just appalling and certainly not the only case like this we've seen in the news. I can't help but think the mistake made initially which caused some of this mask uncertainty was in not suggesting people at least wear home made masks or scarves like we saw in other countries. Instead it lead people to not wearing anything and spreading the virus during that time and confusing some people as to why wear them at all.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I'm always open to other ideas, so this is another option for bringing our cases to zero:

Smart.

https://twitter.com/PeterAlexander/status/1272604861809463298