Coronavirus

[avoigt]

To make the statement that US cases are not growing exponentially based on testing data is ridiculous. At the King County press conference yesterday they clearly said that only about 250 people in the entire state of Washington have been tested so far. And that they have not tested any of the patients still inside of Life Care, any of the staff that works there, or their families, or any of the families that have visited their relatives there over the last month. The numbers of confirmed cases in the US are completely irrelevant right now as nobody is being tested yet.

Las Angeles had a press conference yesterday where they said 25 people have been tested so far in LA county.

Its seems like you did not read my post. I suggest to do that.

The conclusion I did draw that the information we have so far about the developments in the US as not looking exponential does NOT root on the cases tested or not tested.

 

[Matias]

I am right in its epicenter in Washington. We suspect our family might have already had mild cases a few weeks ago. We have definitely been repeatedly exposed. We know a lot of people who are very sick from it, some for as long as 2 weeks now. It has turned our lives upside down. My kid's school just got canceled for two weeks last night. Unless we get lucky with the coming of spring, or the virus naturally weakening, this is going to be a huge human tragedy, and have a huge effect on the stock market.

Aren’t you going to get tested?

Ps. of course it necessarily is not that’s simple. At least here in Finland you need to fulfill certain rather strict criteria to get tested.

 

[Snapdragon III]

Aren’t you going to get tested?

No. I am fine. I may have had a mild case a few weeks ago. Even if I wanted to desperately, it is simply not possible right now unless I were to fly to Germany where they are apparently perfect. Nobody that is not admitted to a hospital is getting tested in Washington right now. You can not get tested. Hopefully that will change in the coming days.

 

[cucubits]

This is the issue. Private businesses not taking this seriously - because of assumed hit on short term revenues. Who is going to this dealership now, anyway ?

NEW: Employee of Toyota of Kirkland (full disclosure: I’m a customer) has tested positive for #coronavirus. Other employees showing symptoms, allegedly were told to continue working according to employee on Reddit. #COVID19seattle​

This is just sad. The other employees who were told to keep working, should show their appreciation by thoroughly shaking the hand of their managers.

 

[dfwatt]

Its seems like you did not read my post. I suggest to do that.

The conclusion I did draw that the information we have so far about the developments in the US as not looking exponential does NOT root on the cases tested or not tested.

what??? Are you debating that the R value is less than 2? Are you suggesting somehow that it's under one? The only way you can get it to those values is through quarantining. There is virtually no real knowledge about how many people in the United States are actually infected with covid 19. We don't know therefore how many people are out in the community spreading the disease.

So for you to make a statement that there's any basis to conclude that the spread is not exponential which is what you would expect with that R value and minimal quarantining is a staggering piece of denial. Buttressing that with raciocination doesn't get you very far.

 

[EVNow]

The response continues to be knee-jerk with little thinking. This is from a couple of days back.

A mall in Texas closed due to coronavirus concerns, and it reveals how shopping centers could be jolted by a wider outbreak

The patient with the coronavirus, who was recently released from quarantine, was at the mall for two hours on Saturday, from 5:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. She visited Dillard's, Talbots, and Swarovski stores and ate at the food court, according to information from the office of San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg​

Days after a visit by an infected person to clean is not a useful response. Better to test the clerks who may have been in contact.

 

[ggr]

Mod: I almost moved a bunch of posts to snippiness thread. I am very pleased to see that the outbreak of snippiness died down all by itself. Please keep it that way. --ggr.

 

[Matias]

What do you think, why cases in China are not growing anymore? Is it because of strict quarantine measures?

 

[jerry33]

Alright, everyone post their NPIs.

Just kidding, don’t do that. I wouldn’t want anyone to get spammed.

Do you really think that will make any difference given the amount of spam that comes around? I'm down do just a few a day, but that's with 21,8## blocking rules.

 

[Matias]

One interesting data point. In the Hubei district there are 67 000 cases. It may sound a lot, but there are 60 million people. So only one in 900 is tested positive. Conclusion is, that this virus doesn’t spread very effectively.

 

[jerry33]

This is the issue. Private businesses not taking this seriously - because of assumed hit on short term revenues. Who is going to this dealership now, anyway ?

NEW: Employee of Toyota of Kirkland (full disclosure: I’m a customer) has tested positive for #coronavirus. Other employees showing symptoms, allegedly were told to continue working according to employee on Reddit. #COVID19seattle​

Another good reason to avoid car dealerships (as if there weren't enough already).

 

[dfwatt]

One interesting data point. In the Hubei district there are 67 000 cases. It may sound a lot, but there are 60 million people. So only one in 900 is tested positive. Conclusion is, that this virus doesn’t spread very effectively.

That's actually not a safe conclusion. China instituted what can only be described as brutal and extremely strict quarantine once it became clear that the virus was spreading like crazy. They instituted widespread testing and they isolated under severe legal penalties everybody who tested positive or who was already symptomatic. That's what caused the number to peak in the 60,000 and flatten out in terms of relatively new cases. How well do you think the United States is doing in relationship to that kind of extremely strict and epidemiologically informed control? We have a chief executive saying that the virus is going to magically disappear in April. A lot of people actually believe him. The other thing you seem to leave out is that before China instituted these extremely strict controls, it was actually spreading exponentially consistent with its published R-value number. How do you think they got the 60,000 cases so quickly? So you are conflating the ability to contain this with strict quarantine with a lack of contagiousness. That's a mistake.

 

[Matias]

@dfwatt, why do you disagree with my post

edit: I see you answered, thank you.

 

[Causalien]

One interesting data point. In the Hubei district there are 67 000 cases. It may sound a lot, but there are 60 million people. So only one in 900 is tested positive. Conclusion is, that this virus doesn’t spread very effectively.

Take Gina's number with a grain of salt.Take the same cautious attitude you have towards Iran's numbers.

Most ppl apply the 1:1000 death to infected ratio. As infected detection is limited by testing whereas death is less prone to fudging. Best is if you can get crematorium numbers and substract the extra cases by normal seasonal deaths.

 

[dfwatt]

@dfwatt, why do you disagree with my post

edit: I see you answered, thank you.

One of the few upsides if maybe the only upside of a totalitarian government is that you can do concerted mass action quickly. Of course if the leadership had not had its head up its ass when the outbreak first surfaced, and was not punishing people like the anesthesiologist who broke the word on this, they might have contained this at a few thousand cases. That's where we have an opportunity still. But I fear we are frittering that opportunity away quickly.

 

[Matias]

That's actually not a safe conclusion. China instituted what can only be described as brutal and extremely strict quarantine once it became clear that the virus was spreading like crazy. They instituted widespread testing and they isolated under severe legal penalties everybody who tested positive or who was already symptomatic. That's what caused the number to peak in the 60,000 and flatten out in terms of relatively new cases. How well do you think the United States is doing in relationship to that kind of extremely strict and epidemiologically informed control? We have a chief executive saying that the virus is going to magically disappear in April. A lot of people actually believe him. The other thing you seem to leave out is that before China instituted these extremely strict controls, it was actually spreading exponentially consistent with its published R-value number. So you are conflating the ability to contain this with strict quarantine with a lack of contagiousness. That's a mistake.

I think your points are valid.

But there’s more; data also tells that within families only 3-10% of family members get reinfected. So that also tells that this is not very contagious (if we compare it to e.g. influenza).

But you are right, China has reached containment with very strict measures.

 

[EVNow]

This is just sad. The other employees who were told to keep working, should show their appreciation by thoroughly shaking the hand of their managers.

The difference between China and US - In China these managers would be in jail by now.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Seattle/comments/fdoekv/corona_virus_at_toyota_of_kirkland/

Some grumblings about a possible case in Boeing too.

The difference in the way tech companies are handling this (mandatory work from home) vs others shows what we should expect.

 

[dfwatt]

I think your points are valid.

But there’s more; data also tells that within families only 3-10% of family members get reinfected. So that also tells that this is not very contagious.

But you are right, China has reached containment with very strict measures.

I have not seen those datasets. Please Point them out to me. 3 to 10% family transmission sounds extremely low.

 

[Matias]

I have not seen those datasets. Please Point them out to me. 3 to 10% family transmission sounds extremely low.

It is a second hand quote from a newspaper. I try to find the original source.

edit: “but preliminary studies ongoing in Guangdong estimate the secondary attack rate in households ranges from 3-10%.”

Source https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

page 8

 

[dfwatt]

It is a second hand quote from a newspaper. I try to find the original source.

edit: “but preliminary studies ongoing in Guangdong estimate the secondary attack rate in households ranges from 3-10%.”

Source https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

page 8

If it's not from the CDC or some actually carefully vetted piece of epidemiology it's just an anecdotal report and probably should not be trusted. Especially if it came from China or Iran where there is intense political pressure to minimize the costs of the government f****** up.