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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
At some point, the countries prioritizing a low death toll will be at an economic disadvantage to the countries that prioritize herd immunity at the cost of a high death toll. When the public realizes that, you’ll see one country after the other switch to the herd immunity strategy.
Unless some cure or vaccination can be found. The economic value of a medical solution to this problem will be massive.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Ya, let's watch how it plays out in UK. If it works, then it seems like the best move going forward. Otherwise you have to lock down until a vaccine, which means the total collapse of commerce.
There must be game theory simulations for this!
There will exist a scale between total annihilation, total herd immunity and total collapse of hospitals.
I'm intuitively certain but leave the proof to you dear students ...
1) Why are you differentiating countries with good containment efforts vs. others? It will produce better short term results if the bad containment countries have worse outcomes because of a higher pulse and insufficient supplies/beds/hospital resources, but I don’t get how that affects things going forward? Even good containment countries are going to have a substantial portion of the population get it when containment is relaxed. It’s just a shallower curve, but the same area underneath.
2) one of the experts from the Sam Harris podcast I linked earlier, believes we will have a vaccine that works in 12-18 months, that will be a one-time vaccine unlike the flu vaccine.
My guess would be that going forward we’ll just become more cognizant of good hygiene, and hopefully far better prepared for the next pandemic.
Another thing that expert said was that he believed it was primarily transmitted through sneezing and coughing. I had also read that talking could possibly transmit it, but he did not mention that. If sneezing and/or coughing is the primary transmission mechanism, why aren’t the articles, experts, government... talking about the importance of sneezing or coughing into your sleeve or a tissue. And immediately avoiding someone and calling them out, when they do not do this. Wouldn’t this be the most effective measure we could take?
marvinat0rz
Member
My sister's in national quarantine watching WWZ with a month of supplies in the pantry. No fear.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
The best outcome is probably having the drugs currently on trial come out with positive results in 3 months. This is probably as long as countries can lockdown. Then once it happens, every country follows UK's example and let it burn through the population in a controlled manner.
Controlling by area and also starting from the younger generation. The worst case scenario is having little unknowing kids passing it on to their grandparents. Once we stop that vector, we can properly let this slowly go through the older generation, but hopefully by then, we'll have a vaccine, but I am not really hopeful of that outcome from all previous trials with SARS and MERS.
Sean Wagner
Member
Thank you to those of you who provided some context to the graph I linked to, I realize how important it is to keep things sane. Nevertheless, the numbers are stark and I'm having some trouble with the abstraction.
As expected.
The best we can do is slow down the speed of propagation while ramping up the number of respirators and ensure hospital staff are adequately protected and supported.
High-grade masks were reported stolen from the local university hospital - I am aghast.
I've now found an official Italian page linking to excellent maps and up-to-date data. There are links to desktop and mobile maps here: Coronavirus Emergency: The National response
Click-thru desktop version:
Dipartimento della Protezione Civile
COVID-19 Italia - Monitoraggio della situazione
Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS
Hope it is of use. De-select the line representing infections to re-base the y-axis. It's sobering to think that not too far south, medical professionals are fighting night and day to save as many people as they can.
As expected.
The best we can do is slow down the speed of propagation while ramping up the number of respirators and ensure hospital staff are adequately protected and supported.
High-grade masks were reported stolen from the local university hospital - I am aghast.
I've now found an official Italian page linking to excellent maps and up-to-date data. There are links to desktop and mobile maps here: Coronavirus Emergency: The National response
Click-thru desktop version:
Dipartimento della Protezione Civile
COVID-19 Italia - Monitoraggio della situazione
Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS
Hope it is of use. De-select the line representing infections to re-base the y-axis. It's sobering to think that not too far south, medical professionals are fighting night and day to save as many people as they can.
An important parameter is the hospital capacity. If all get sick at the same time, many die. If the same number get sick over a longer period, not so many die because they can be treated while alive. Crucial difference!
Also, some tv news show I happened to watch suggested that one feature differentiating between Covid19 and flu or cold is the absence of sneezing in the former. Now, I have no idea how true that is, but it was the most prominent discriminator in that graphic. However that may be, it is always best not to sneeze or cough out into the open but into a (disposable) hanky or your elbow.
And don't touch door handles etc, don't touch your face (if you can help it) and wash hands often.
Not medical, but still advice.
Every week I walk a mile and half to the grocery store to get a weeks worth of groceries. I was a bit worried that it would be a mad house or that the shelves would be empty.
The reality was it wasn't much different than normal. Sure the checkout clerk talked about how crazy it's been, but I didn't see it being for apocalyptic. Sure the entire shelves of toilet paper was completely bare, and the shelves for eggs was mostly bare but they had boxes ready to be unloaded right next to it.
I didn't have any issues finding what I came in for. I only saw a few people were clearly stocking up, but most it seemed like it was just another Saturday. I didn't check the soup aisle despite actually needing to since I plan on using this hell period to get my wisdom teeth out, and a broken tooth that they said couldn't be saved. :-(
Now maybe this particular Safeway did a brilliant job with supply management, and stocking. Or maybe people around me are less panic'd. It's been well over a week since schools around my area have been shut down. I believe we had the first death (the Snohomish County area) in the entire Country.
Where I work we initially did the "work from home if you can", and now it's "you're not even allowed in the building if it's not your assigned teams time to be here".
France, Spain, Italy, all in national lockdown.
No travel from Europe to US.
DoD restricts all domestic travel.
Next will be state by state travel restrictions in US. Mark my words.
Anyone that still thinks TSLA can survive the macro in the face of this panic and shutdown is smoking something potent.
No travel from Europe to US.
DoD restricts all domestic travel.
Next will be state by state travel restrictions in US. Mark my words.
Anyone that still thinks TSLA can survive the macro in the face of this panic and shutdown is smoking something potent.
Massive increase in deaths will likely dissuade most countries who did low death toll from switching to herd immunity. I mean I doubt anyone is looking at Iran digging mass graves and thinking they should emulate Iran. Well except the UK I guess. They are absolutely insane but the world thanks them for their sacrifice by testing the limits of their NHS with a let everyone die and see how it goes strategy.
If the UK really goes forward with "Let God sort 'em out", I wonder if Ireland will be forced to close the border with Northern Ireland.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Trevor Bedford on Twitter
Good information on estimates for current case count in the US (between 20k and 40k cases).
Trevor Bedford is a great guy to follow on Twitter - good science-based information.
This has been debunked. It was from an early paper and it's quite common in a pandemic like this for one strain to end up more prevalent than another. Just because the gene sequence is different does not mean the virulence is any different.
Trevor Bedford on Twitter
"It is mutating, as RNA viruses do. It's just that almost all mutations are expected to have very little functional impact. There's no evidence that this particular mutation is special."
Ha ha ha.
We'll see how long that lasts. Elon is being a bit of a fool to discount this (see his email and his tweets) - that will not age well. He needs to be focused on protecting his workers (he may be doing so), and making sure that production can continue without risk of an outbreak. That requires a lot of extra procedures but it seems like it should be possible. But safety of his employees should be his first priority, not maintaining Model Y production so he can get his stock payment. I don't think there's a lot of hope for maintaining market cap above the threshold in the short term, anyway, so there's not much point in trying to pump it. Just focus on the business and finding ways to maintain production - safely.
Leadership and modeling correct behavior starts at the top.
I keep hearing people say this, but it's not true that the area is the same underneath. There is no reason that we cannot bring infections in the US to near zero (and in fact it is essential). The first priority is to bring the infection rate way down - what we are trying to do now. After that (and while you're doing that), prepare massive fast testing capability and other infrastructure for immediate response to individual cases. For the long term, we are going to need extremely high vigilance to quarantine the handful of cases that will continue to pop up, even with intense travel restrictions and screening. We must ensure that future shutdowns and quarantines are at a very local level - and with such infrastructure put in place over the coming weeks, it may well be possible. We have to hope we can be better at outbreak control and contact tracing and monitoring, otherwise this will be disruptive for a very long time.
To see the area "constant" argument is false - just look at both China and South Korea. The area under Korea's curve will certainly end up lower than it would have been if they had taken no action! This is completely separate from whether the hospitals could have handled it. Long term, NOT everyone will get it. We need to work (with the current social distancing and extreme shutdown measures) to get the infections down to an extremely low level, which can then be met with immediate strong response to prevent spread (local "strike teams" to introduce local quarantines, school shutdowns, etc), for the next 18 months or so, hoping that vaccines will become available to create herd immunity.
Good information on estimates for current case count in the US (between 20k and 40k cases).
Trevor Bedford is a great guy to follow on Twitter - good science-based information.
This has been debunked. It was from an early paper and it's quite common in a pandemic like this for one strain to end up more prevalent than another. Just because the gene sequence is different does not mean the virulence is any different.
Trevor Bedford on Twitter
"It is mutating, as RNA viruses do. It's just that almost all mutations are expected to have very little functional impact. There's no evidence that this particular mutation is special."
Ha ha ha.
We'll see how long that lasts. Elon is being a bit of a fool to discount this (see his email and his tweets) - that will not age well. He needs to be focused on protecting his workers (he may be doing so), and making sure that production can continue without risk of an outbreak. That requires a lot of extra procedures but it seems like it should be possible. But safety of his employees should be his first priority, not maintaining Model Y production so he can get his stock payment. I don't think there's a lot of hope for maintaining market cap above the threshold in the short term, anyway, so there's not much point in trying to pump it. Just focus on the business and finding ways to maintain production - safely.
Leadership and modeling correct behavior starts at the top.
I keep hearing people say this, but it's not true that the area is the same underneath. There is no reason that we cannot bring infections in the US to near zero (and in fact it is essential). The first priority is to bring the infection rate way down - what we are trying to do now. After that (and while you're doing that), prepare massive fast testing capability and other infrastructure for immediate response to individual cases. For the long term, we are going to need extremely high vigilance to quarantine the handful of cases that will continue to pop up, even with intense travel restrictions and screening. We must ensure that future shutdowns and quarantines are at a very local level - and with such infrastructure put in place over the coming weeks, it may well be possible. We have to hope we can be better at outbreak control and contact tracing and monitoring, otherwise this will be disruptive for a very long time.
To see the area "constant" argument is false - just look at both China and South Korea. The area under Korea's curve will certainly end up lower than it would have been if they had taken no action! This is completely separate from whether the hospitals could have handled it. Long term, NOT everyone will get it. We need to work (with the current social distancing and extreme shutdown measures) to get the infections down to an extremely low level, which can then be met with immediate strong response to prevent spread (local "strike teams" to introduce local quarantines, school shutdowns, etc), for the next 18 months or so, hoping that vaccines will become available to create herd immunity.
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Longer infection time reported by doctors researching the patients. How about 8 to 37 days....CBS News report.
Coronavirus can live in your body for up to 37 days, according to new study
From the CBS News article (study published in Lancet):
"They found that the virus was present in the bodies of patients with severe disease status for an average of 19 days, and inside the bodies of patients with critical disease status for an average of 24 days. Overall, the virus was detected for an average of 20 days in patients who were eventually discharged from the hospital. In the respiratory tracts of patients who died, coronavirus was detectable until death.
The shortest length of time the virus lived in the respiratory tract of a survivor was eight days. And perhaps most shocking of all, in some cases, the virus persisted for as long as 37 days. "
Coronavirus can live in your body for up to 37 days, according to new study
From the CBS News article (study published in Lancet):
"They found that the virus was present in the bodies of patients with severe disease status for an average of 19 days, and inside the bodies of patients with critical disease status for an average of 24 days. Overall, the virus was detected for an average of 20 days in patients who were eventually discharged from the hospital. In the respiratory tracts of patients who died, coronavirus was detectable until death.
The shortest length of time the virus lived in the respiratory tract of a survivor was eight days. And perhaps most shocking of all, in some cases, the virus persisted for as long as 37 days. "
MXLRplus
Active Member
@S4WRXTTCS - Before it was reported in the media, panic hoarding began here, IIRC, there wasn't even a single C19 case in the area when hoarding started. The panic must be spreading via social media. Perhaps your area has less people on social media? Dunno.
I used to live near Issaquah on 5 acres. The population density was low back then. Perhaps low population density helps.
I used to live near Issaquah on 5 acres. The population density was low back then. Perhaps low population density helps.
Probably one of Trump's staffs told him Verily, a Google company, will do the portal for us, and he just call it Google. Same as calling Tim Cook Tim Apple because he runs Apple
Is that a positive ... uh ... good thing?
I hope you and your wife are still ok. Do I understand that she has tested positive, you both have symptoms, and you are awaiting a test kit?
For those hoping to watch shows on TV/Cable/Streaming, here's a list from Deadline of all the programs that have been shut down as of publication, quite extensive. Guess it's home and reruns or shows you didn't watch first go round, or a time to pick up a book.
Coronavirus: TV Shows That Have Halted Or Delayed Production Amid Outbreak – Deadline
Coronavirus: TV Shows That Have Halted Or Delayed Production Amid Outbreak – Deadline
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