Coronavirus

[ohmman]

I was a consultant long enough to know when someone's layering more datasets and scenarios to try and cover a mistake.

I don't know how to politely say this, but you appear to know this well since you've avoided backing up your claims in this thread, even when asked repeatedly to do so.

 

[bkp_duke]

When I had shoulder problems I had to wait almost a month to see a Dr. because I was a new patient. A friend of my mother's has water on the brain causing him increasing functional problems and the soonest he could see a specialist is June. They are trying to find some way to get him in sooner somewhere. Do not continue to pretend that care isn't rationed in the US.

Water is always on the brain - it's suspended in water. . .

Don't pretend that care in other countries isn't rationed, you know better.

 

[bkp_duke]

@EVNow

Thought of you when I read this one:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2005412?query=RP

 

[traxila]

How do you think the market will respond when we reach 2000 deaths per day ?
Is it already baked in ?

No. I think the market will be chronically unhappy for a while. Probably will turn well before death rate crests when it sees a light at end of tunnel. But right now acting as if worst is behind. It is wrong. IMO.

 

[ohmman]

Water is always on the brain

When my well pump broke, I really had water on the brain.

 

[NikolaACDC]

I guess this means churches won't be packed on Easter? I don't think even Evangelicals are that....um.....reckless.

Wouldn't bet on it...
What's It Like At Liberty University Right Now?

Water is always on the brain - it's suspended in water. . .

Don't pretend that care in other countries isn't rationed, you know better.

He never claimed it wasn't.
You were the one pointing out that care is rationed in countries with single payer healthcare, implying that it isn't in the US.
Or why else point it out?

 

[bkp_duke]

@UrsS - you going to grow a pair and join in the conversation, or just keep armchair quarterbacking and clicking "disagree" ?

Asking for a friend.

 

[Daniel in SD]

He should be retracting it, not deflecting. I was a consultant long enough to know when someone's layering more datasets and scenarios to try and cover a mistake.

All the scenarios are in the original report. I'm not sure why you feel it necessary to slander him. Have you read the report?

EDIT: Oops almost forgot. Where is the SARS data you talked about?

 

[bkp_duke]

No. I think the market will be chronically unhappy for a while. Probably will turn well before death rate crests when it sees a light at end of tunnel. But right now acting as if worst is behind. It is wrong. IMO.

Concur. Had a friend that is a mortgage broker call me to complain today and he says it's an absolute $%^& show right now. Because the relief act that just passed allows homeowners affected by the pandemic to suspend their mortgage payments for up to 12 months, it is having a nasty ripple effect through the industry. The middle men, like Quicken Loans, etc. are still responsible to make interest and other payments to the bond holders of those securities. This has caused an INSTANT repricing effect to happen where people with lower FICO scores are seeing their quoted rates for loans jump to as high as 7+%. The brokers want nothing to do with these borrowers now because they feel they could be left holding the bag unless the Fed puts additional protections in place.

His opinion, if that oversight is not fixed, it could be a bigger downward pressure on the markets than what we saw in 2008.

 

[Unpilot]

Don't have much to contribute. But do want to say I appreciate the education I am getting.

 

[MXLRplus]

Don't know if this has been posted here, but it is public now. Abbott has gotten FDA approval on their C19 test. Positive results in 5 minutes, negative in 15 min.

The President enacted the War Power Act on GM to accelerate Ventec ventilator production. Apparently the Fed is stuck at the negotiation stage. The WPA will force them to proceed without a contract.

 

[deonb]

Don't know if this has been posted here, but it is public now. Abbott has gotten FDA approval on their C19 test. Positive results in 5 minutes, negative in 15 min.

The President enacted the War Power Act on GM to accelerate Ventec ventilator production. Apparently the Fed is stuck at the negotiation stage. The WPA will force them to proceed without a contract.

I wonder how many concurrent tests can be run? At that speed it becomes practical to screen people at an airport before they board a flight.

Unless of course you can only run one test at a time.

 

[bkp_duke]

Don't know if this has been posted here, but it is public now. Abbott has gotten FDA approval on their C19 test. Positive results in 5 minutes, negative in 15 min.

The President enacted the War Power Act on GM to accelerate Ventec ventilator production. Apparently the Fed is stuck at the negotiation stage. The WPA will force them to proceed without a contract.

Great info. I was starting to think it was going to be a slow day for actual science.

Detect COVID-19 in as Little as 5 Minutes

Did a quick hunt on what kind of test this is, and it is a point-of-care PCR test. They sensitivity and specificity for the SARS-CoV-2 virus and this test isn't published, but here is the link for that data for their Flu A/B test:
ID NOW Influenza A & B 2 - Alere is now Abbott

Should be a reliable test. Sadly, they are only stating a production capacity of 5 million tests per month in April.

 

[eevee-fan]

I wonder how many concurrent tests can be run? At that speed it becomes practical to screen people at an airport before they board a flight.

Unless of course you can only run one rest at a time.

We really need a all-in-one kit like Kodak film... where's Kodak when you need them?

 

[EinSV]

I completely disagree. They are making zero effort. I'm just as upset over their analysis of the Iceland data. There is plenty of information about incubation periods, time from infection to death, demographics, and they are using none of it. It is not a serious analysis. This is what a serious analysis looks like:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357v1.full.pdf

One of the challenges for academics trying to publish in the midst of a pandemic is that everything moves incredibly fast.

That March 9 pre-publication paper is already outdated, because in the absence of data (at the time) the authors had to make educated guesses about the level of mild and asymptomatic cases that affected their entire analysis.

Now we have data that -- while limited -- strongly suggests a high percentage of asymptomatic and mild cases. Perhaps they they can update their analysis with more current data during peer review/before publication.

In the meantime, I have great respect for the many scientists who are willing to get out of their comfort zones and take their best shot at evaluating evidence in real time.

 

[bkp_duke]

We really need a all-in-one kit like Kodak film... where's Kodak when you need them?

Bankrupt?

 

[sparcs]

Great info. I was starting to think it was going to be a slow day for actual science.

Detect COVID-19 in as Little as 5 Minutes

Did a quick hunt on what kind of test this is, and it is a point-of-care PCR test. They sensitivity and specificity for the SARS-CoV-2 virus and this test isn't published, but here is the link for that data for their Flu A/B test:
ID NOW Influenza A & B 2 - Alere is now Abbott

Should be a reliable test. Sadly, they are only stating a production capacity of 5 million tests per month in April.

CNBC says that the 5 million/month is combined with an existing test they already provide: Abbott receives approval for test that can detect coronavirus in 5 minutes

i think it's only 1.5 million of this test per month via a ramp to 50k per day. Not sure how much it matters, but figured I would point it.

 

[bkp_duke]

Well . . . this just got real here locally. Literally minutes ago our kids' school sent out an email that there has been a presumptive positive by an employee at their school.

Only saving grace is that the kids have now been out of school for 14 days, so odds are this positive is community acquired.

Still, makes one pause and take stock of the situation.

 

[Daniel in SD]

One of the challenges for academics trying to publish in the midst of a pandemic is that everything moves incredibly fast.

That March 9 pre-publication paper is already outdated, because in the absence of data (at the time) the authors had to make educated guesses about the level of mild and asymptomatic cases that affected their entire analysis.

Now we have data that -- while limited -- strongly suggests a high percentage of asymptomatic and mild cases. Perhaps they they can update their analysis with more current data during peer review/before publication.

In the meantime, I have great respect for the many scientists who are willing to get out of their comfort zones and take their best shot at evaluating evidence in real time.

There is no need to have scientists go out of their comfort zones, in fact this is most definitely not the time for that! That paper was published by multiple epidemiologists.

 

[PeteC]

That 80,000 assumes agressive self isolation and hospitals will not exceed capacity and have to let savable patients die because they don't have the ventilators. With COVID-19 the number of people who have life threatening cases and require hospitalization or they will die is much, much higher than any flu outbreak since the 1918 flu.

Look at the hospital situation in many places that are hardest hit. In some places in Italy they have had to let savable patients die because they didn't have the ventilators and other resources. New York City, Atlanta, and New Orleans are on the verge of that point right now with cases growing in every city.

If we do aggressive self isolation, we can keep the death rate down to 80,000 in the next four months. If we don't, there is a study out of the UK that showed if the virus was allowed to run its course. In the UK, they would see 500,000 dead. The US in the same scenario would see 2.2 million dead. We would be done with the virus by mid to late summer because almost everyone left alive will have had it and gotten over it.

Then there are the long term consequences. There is news coming out of China that about 20% of those hospitalized who recover have permanent heart damage. Some percentage (probably fairly high) will have permanent lung damage too. About 68 million Americans are vulnerable to get serious cases. If all of them got it at once, a huge percentage of them would die and most of the rest would be left with permanent, chronic health conditions that will require treatment the rest of their lives.

If you want to see millions die and the economy melt down for a generation, go back to business as usual.

I’ve never participated in this forum before, so I apologize if I’m doing this wrong. I just wanted to say that this is the most cogent explanation have seen and if I had permission and the knowledge of how to post it on Facebook I would. And thank you.