Coronavirus

[dfwatt]

Wife suggests most people aren't dying from Covid, but instead are dying with Covid. This is expressing that most people have other issues and Covid is the last straw.

Further proof that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. For the full unpacking of that seductive notion see the long post on this page here. It's a bit like the argument that the plate was already cracked in the store before you dropped it on the ground. Guess what - you still own it.

 

[SageBrush]

More support for the notion that asymptomatic cases are widespread comes from a new report in the British Medical Journal:

Or this means that RNA testing is picking up people in the incubation phase, or very early in the infectious phase before eventual symptoms are recognized and reported by the patients.

The note that imported cases are symptomatic buttresses this interpretation.

 

[EinSV]

Or this means that RNA testing is picking up people in the incubation phase, or very early in the infectious phase before eventual symptoms are recognized and reported by the patients.

The note that imported cases are symptomatic buttresses this interpretation.

Agree that as far as I can tell this particular report does not distinguish between presymptomatic and true asymptomatic cases.

 

[Norbert]

It always rises just before the peak.

Busted!

The "total cases" are still rising, so we don't even have that peak yet. The "deaths per day" peak follows in some distance. In China, it was about 14 days. Do the math. Maybe in the US the distance will be shorter, but on what grounds would you say so?

 

[ohmman]

I didn’t see this posted yet but the California Board of Education has decided that kids will not return for the remainder of this school year.

If business reopens before then, get ready for 6 year olds who can cook AND do the dishes!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Busted!

The "total cases" are still rising, so we don't even have that peak yet. The "deaths per day" peak follows in some distance. In China, it was about 14 days. Do the math. Maybe in the US the distance will be shorter, but on what grounds would you say so?

????????
"The "total cases" are still rising, so we don't even have that peak yet."
Um, yeeaahhh.... Kind of by definition of "peak"

"The "deaths per day" peak follows in some distance."
Um, yeeaahhh.... Kind of by definition of "peak"

"In China, it was about 14 days"
WHAT was about 14 days? The time from what to the peak?

 

[mikevbf]

What makes you say the peak will be "the next week or two"?

It seems generally, the number of new cases is still rising.

Only the first line is my words. The rest comes from NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital's person in charge of communicating with their employees. My friend works for NYP and shares his summary from those communications each night with me via email which I copy and paste to this thread each morning. I should have put quotes around the rest. I will in the future.

 

[AZRI11]

I'm taking quercetin. Mom takes hydroxychloroquine for her lupus. Hopefully, everyone on this forum has a plan that is as "death proof" as mine seriously all be well

 

[EVNow]

We are approaching the peak of this which we think will be the next week or two. We still have a ways to go before we see the light at the end of the tunnel

They all seem to be going by the projections from covid19 project. NY is supposed to peak around Apr 10th. Apparently this is the same projection that convinced Trump to move out social distancing guidelines to end of April (instead of Easter).

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

CA projection says peak by end of April. If this holds, we should expect Fremont closure to last till mid-May, if not end of May.

 

[tander]

If we've hardly done any testing+most people have no or mild symptoms=how do we have any accurate sense of how many people really are/have been infected? Couldn't half the population have it and we just wouldn't know because they feel fine and haven't been tested? Hoping there are some epidemiologist TMC members

 

[dfwatt]

There's no virus in the history of the world that wasn't an equal opportunity killer. Fact that younger individuals have an infinitesimally small death rate should tell all of us older individuals something. After 100+hrs of research my opinion is don't take any meds if you have the virus. Your own immune system is your best chance. Hydroxychloroquine should be an option for those with underlying conditions "only". If your heathly and get the covid-19 fever let said fever do it's job and kill this virus. Now someone give me a podium with a presidential seal

I have no idea what you're talking about. Wait... Neither do you!

 

[AZRI11]

I have no idea what you're talking about. Wait... Neither do you!

Fair point. Still no one in South Korea under the age of 30 has died of this virus. This one is a mind bender indeed.

 

[Norbert]

????????
"The "total cases" are still rising, so we don't even have that peak yet."
Um, yeeaahhh.... Kind of by definition of "peak"

"The "deaths per day" peak follows in some distance."
Um, yeeaahhh.... Kind of by definition of "peak"

"In China, it was about 14 days"
WHAT was about 14 days? The time from what to the peak?

Short answer: If you read my post more carefully, we can avoid half the discussion.

Edit: I will follow up once the worldometer numbers for today are complete, which should be soon.

 

[Norbert]

Busted!

The "total cases" are still rising, so we don't even have that peak yet. The "deaths per day" peak follows in some distance. In China, it was about 14 days. Do the math. Maybe in the US the distance will be shorter, but on what grounds would you say so?

Actually, it should have said: "New cases" (per day) are still rising. Speaking on the national level, to be clear.

 

[EinSV]

If we've hardly done any testing+most people have no or mild symptoms=how do we have any accurate sense of how many people really are/have been infected? Couldn't half the population have it and we just wouldn't know because they feel fine and haven't been tested? Hoping there are some epidemiologist TMC members

It is a strangely controversial topic but I'll give you my two cents.

Unfortunately, like so many things with the coronavirus there are conflicting reports and imperfect information. For example, data from Iceland and a small village in Italy that tested its entire population suggest that most cases are asymptomatic or have only mild or moderate symptoms. Other studies suggest that asymptomatic cases are not as widespread. Many scientists have called for random testing to try to get a better handle on it. Those efforts have started but so far have not yielded much useful information.

You will hear from a handful of people on this forum who have no expertise on this issue, but think they know more than the epidemiologists who are studying these questions. Overcoming confirmation bias during COVID-19

Edit: On this topic, and hot off the presses, is this report from Italy:

Note: I seriously doubt this data is representative, but is more anecdotal evidence of asymptomatic infections

 

[JRP3]

Trigger warning for those afraid of data that may have political overtones:

The Pentagon warned the White House about a shortage of ventilators, face masks, and hospital beds in 2017—but the Trump administration did nothing.

“There have been recent pronouncements that the coronavirus pandemic represents an intelligence failure…. it’s letting people who ignored intelligence warnings off the hook.”

In addition to anticipating the coronavirus pandemic, the military plan predicted with uncanny accuracy many of the medical supply shortages that it now appears will soon cause untold deaths.

The plan states: “Competition for, and scarcity of resources will include…non-pharmaceutical MCM [Medical Countermeasures] (e.g., ventilators, devices, personal protective equipment such as face masks and gloves), medical equipment, and logistical support. This will have a significant impact on the availability of the global workforce.”

Exclusive: The Military Knew Years Ago That a Coronavirus Was Coming

 

[sparcs]

WHO says 'more and more' young people are dying from the coronavirus

• Most of the people with severe illnesses in intensive care tend to be older or have underlying conditions, she said. “But what we are seeing in some countries is that there are individuals who are in their 30s, who are in their 40s, who are in their 50s who are in ICU and who have died.”
• It is a mistake to believe that the virus only severely impacts older people and those with underlying conditions, added Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s emergencies program. In Italy, one of the largest outbreaks in the world, 10% to 15% of all people in intensive care are under 50. In Korea, he added, one in six deaths have been people below the age of 60.

Sadly, the people who need to hear this are not doing any reading at all. They are the one's out at big gatherings.

 

[tander]

It is a strangely controversial topic but I'll give you my two cents.

Unfortunately, like so many things with the coronavirus there are conflicting reports and imperfect information. For example, data from Iceland and a small village in Italy that tested its entire population suggest that most cases are asymptomatic or have only mild or moderate symptoms. Other studies suggest that asymptomatic cases are not as widespread. Many scientists have called for random testing to try to get a better handle on it. Those efforts have started but so far have not yielded much useful information.

You will hear from a handful of people on this forum who have no expertise on this issue, but think they know more than the epidemiologists who are studying these questions. Overcoming confirmation bias during COVID-19

Edit: On this topic, and hot off the presses, is this report from Italy:

View attachment 529092

Note: I seriously doubt this data is representative, but is more anecdotal evidence of asymptomatic infections

Would be really nice to know just from a practical can I visit my Grandma or donate blood standpoint. Or better yet can I give my antibodies or whatever to her, wish it was that simple

 

[EinSV]

Would be really nice to know just from a practical can I visit my Grandma or donate blood standpoint. Or better yet can I give my antibodies or whatever to her, wish it was that simple

I think one thing almost all of us would agree on is that it's a bad idea to visit your Grandma, no matter how good you feel.

For those who can afford it, this is a great time to give an older person who doesn't have one a smart phone or tablet and teach them how to use Facetime, WhatsApp, Zoom or whatever.

We gave an iPhone we no longer used to our 90+ year old friend and an iPad to an elderly relative over the past couple years. After a little work getting them up and running they ended up loving having the face-to-face calls.

 

[linux-works]

and so, the lawlessness escalates:

I wonder: how will they know if the right roll is returned to them?

oh right, it answers to its own name.

sure, I'd want that one back, too, I guess.