Agreed, for now. Her workplace, and many like it, still don't have protections in place to protect the front staff from being infected (or passing infections) to their customers/patients. Face masks and gloves should NOT have to be provided by the employees themselves! But that's a rant of a different color.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Agreed, for now. Her workplace, and many like it, still don't have protections in place to protect the front staff from being infected (or passing infections) to their customers/patients. Face masks and gloves should NOT have to be provided by the employees themselves! But that's a rant of a different color.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
I agree it's insane for customer facing employees not to have protection (especially at a pharmacy!).
So here is how Hobby Lobby responded today (Business Insider):
Hobby Lobby is closing all stores and furloughing 'nearly all' employees after it defied stay-at-home orders by quietly reopening locations around the nation
We apparently are at the top of the curve (worldwide) according to Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,096,570 Cases and 59,125 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer new cases & new deaths are nearly the same yesterday/today. Focus should remain on social distancing. June 1st should see us back to work. July should see international travel. If I'm wrong countries will see revolutions (not kidding) and then we will have a much bigger problem.
Hobby Lobby is also one of the companies that want to force employees to live according to their own religious fantasy.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Sure. But I think there's evidence from earlier in the week that part of the "slowdown" was due to limitations on number of tests. We're up to 140k per day now though and hopefully 200k per day by next week.
But that decline in death growth rate would lag the case growth rate linearization. I'd expect the death growth rate to continue to climb somewhat exponentially. (As it seems to be doing, with a brief pause yesterday.)
That would not describe me. The 250k down from 2.2M assumes mitigation, of course - no one expected 2.2 million deaths, unless we did nothing. 250k assumes 25 million infections which seems conceivable. I wouldn't be walking it back if I said 100k. I think it will likely be higher than that, but I'm hopeful we can keep it below 250k. It will depend on exactly how contagious the virus is. However I noticed in one of the pictures today from Wuhan that half the people were wearing bunny suits (which they presumably take off when they get home). It seems like they might think it is contagious.
It's always tough to pin you down, to be honest. It sounds like you don't believe in an IFR of about 1% (or even 0.5%). Which seems a bit like denial to me, based on available data.
The incorrect data on asymptomatic infections (like the article claim above that 80% of people are asymptomatic) are extremely dangerous because they might make people think they have already had the illness, or that we will approach herd immunity sooner than we expect. It's optimistic, but it's also dangerous. Taking this as given also makes containment/mitigation essentially hopeless, which means that our current measures are hopeless, and it will tend to make people less likely to stick to the mitigation measures. But all the data we have suggests that relaxing our current measures would cost over a million lives. So dangerous to suggest that we should consider doing so, unless we have the data to support doing so (antibody testing, etc.), when we have a lot of data suggesting otherwise. And even if it were true, it's very clear that this infection will overwhelm hospitals anyway - so we have to mitigate. The asymptomatic infections issue/answer really more determines how many waves we might have if we do a really bad job in the future.
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Trigger alert:
More support for the notion that asymptomatic cases are widespread comes from a new report in the British Medical Journal:
"New evidence has emerged from China indicating that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms.
Chinese authorities began publishing daily figures on 1 April on the number of new coronavirus cases that are asymptomatic, with the first day’s figures suggesting that around four in five coronavirus infections caused no illness. Many experts believe that unnoticed, asymptomatic cases of coronavirus infection could be an important source of contagion."
"The latest findings seem to contradict a World Health Organization report in February that was based on covid-19 in China. This suggested that “the proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.”1
But since that WHO report other researchers, including Sergio Romagnani, a professor of clinical immunology at the University of Florence, have said they have evidence that most people infected by the virus do not show symptoms. Romagnani led the research that showed that blanket testing in a completely isolated village of roughly 3000 people in northern Italy saw the number of people with covid-19 symptoms fall by over 90% within 10 days by isolating people who were symptomatic and those who were asymptomatic.2
Numbers are small, and from China, but consistent with the data from Iceland and the village in Italy that suggests asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases are widespread.
Not definitive, but food for thought for those who have already (prematurely in my opinion) closed the books on this issue.
Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate
More support for the notion that asymptomatic cases are widespread comes from a new report in the British Medical Journal:
"New evidence has emerged from China indicating that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms.
Chinese authorities began publishing daily figures on 1 April on the number of new coronavirus cases that are asymptomatic, with the first day’s figures suggesting that around four in five coronavirus infections caused no illness. Many experts believe that unnoticed, asymptomatic cases of coronavirus infection could be an important source of contagion."
"The latest findings seem to contradict a World Health Organization report in February that was based on covid-19 in China. This suggested that “the proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.”1
But since that WHO report other researchers, including Sergio Romagnani, a professor of clinical immunology at the University of Florence, have said they have evidence that most people infected by the virus do not show symptoms. Romagnani led the research that showed that blanket testing in a completely isolated village of roughly 3000 people in northern Italy saw the number of people with covid-19 symptoms fall by over 90% within 10 days by isolating people who were symptomatic and those who were asymptomatic.2
Numbers are small, and from China, but consistent with the data from Iceland and the village in Italy that suggests asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases are widespread.
Not definitive, but food for thought for those who have already (prematurely in my opinion) closed the books on this issue.
Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate
Um, maybe because he looks at data and modeled projections.
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Comparing how the model is converging as time progresses, the projected peak a week ago was lower than the current projection, but the projected date of the peak changed little. It seems doubtful that the date of the projected peak is going to shift dramatically before April 10.
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Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Already debunked here: Coronavirus
You should stop ignoring @AlanSubie4Life , he posts useful information!
jhm
Well-Known Member
It's hard for us to fathom what this would look like. This is 6666 DPM. NY at 3218 deaths is just 165 DPM. NY at 6666 DPM would be 130k deaths. Italy and Spain are at 243 DPM and 240 DPM respectively. Try to image that level of tragedy multiplied by 27. Italy has lost over 51 doctors so far. Imagine 1400 doctors and a whole lot more nurses and other medical personnel dying.
As it is we will be lucky if we limit this ten-fold to just 666 deaths per million.
MXLRplus
Active Member
I would say the final death total is mostly dependent on whether humanity comes up with an effective treatment or a vaccine.
We are already seeing the death rate in decline with no major breakthroughs yet.
Our Hobby Lobby is not open nor did it open after it shut down. However many small non-essential businesses are operating as usual, as well as many non-essential public employees are working. If we were not actively working on medical devices, we would close.
Ahhh... now I understand. They make chicken sandwiches!
We are already seeing the death rate in decline with no major breakthroughs yet.
Our Hobby Lobby is not open nor did it open after it shut down. However many small non-essential businesses are operating as usual, as well as many non-essential public employees are working. If we were not actively working on medical devices, we would close.
Ahhh... now I understand. They make chicken sandwiches!
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Case in point. I assume this article will be retracted shortly, as they clearly misread the data.
Have you noticed we're on pace for 10k deaths in the US by the end of day Sunday? And deaths per day are increasing at about 20% per day? Which puts us on target for about 30k deaths by the following weekend, with perhaps over 5000 deaths a day? I mean, I hope the deaths stop increasing at that %, as the effects of distancing in NY kick in, or that that is a brief erroneous data reporting blip, and I am way wrong, and we don't hit 30k deaths until the 15th or so, as looked more likely a couple weeks ago. But putting those panic-inducing numbers aside, 36k is certainly inevitable, and I believe 80k is extremely likely as well, before the end of April.
Anyway, I'll be sure to bookmark this "on pace" claim of yours.
I doubt it. But I hope you are right.
Here is another potential treatment option:-
Researchers find common head lice drug kills coronavirus
Researchers find common head lice drug kills coronavirus
There's no virus in the history of the world that wasn't an equal opportunity killer. Fact that younger individuals have an infinitesimally small death rate should tell all of us older individuals something. After 100+hrs of research
my opinion is don't take any meds if you have the virus. Your own immune system is your best chance. Hydroxychloroquine should be an option for those with underlying conditions "only". If your heathly and get the covid-19 fever let said fever do it's job and kill this virus. Now someone give me a podium with a presidential seal After reading the paper on their modeling methodology I am not sure I would put a great deal of faith in the tail part of these projections. Though the peak date might be more reliable. The curves are modeled on case number curves that fall-off like Wuhan/China because that was the only data point available as they built the model. Italy doesn't seem to be following that trajectory. I would look at Italy to see what the future holds for other Western countries. If Italy stays constant at 4k cases a day with full non-essential shutdown that will put the government in a impossible decision on what action to take next. I hope that is not the case and the cases are falling, just falling slowly compared to China.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
The table is irrelevant. Now for the follow-up question: still infectious ?
Norbert
TSLA will win
I'm aware of, and tracking these models, although I'm looking mostly at national numbers. I have strong doubts about the national numbers. I expect the national peak will be later and higher.
My question is about the actual data and understanding coming from this hospital. The theoretical models are something different.
dhrivnak
Active Member
It always rises just before the peak.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Fortunately, in San Diego County, starting Saturday evening, it is going to be mandatory for all such employees (grocery stores, pharmacy, etc.) to wear masks. Hopefully their companies will find a way to source them quality masks rather than homemade ones.
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