Coronavirus

[dqd88]

Not sure if you are joking here. But at the risk of getting r/woooosh'd, here goes:

That's called a protein subunit vaccine, and there are currently 15 of them already in test for SARS-Cov-2.

Like I said, it's not my wheelhouse. But I guess I was on the right track of thinking since it's actually a thing.
For someone with no training in biology to conceptualize removing RNA to make a vaccine, I'm mean, I think that's cool.

 

[defc0n]

Maybe some states will try that, and a few may succeed. But I've concluded that most of the US is going to go the very painful route of opening soon and saturating medical resources. My personal strategy is to keep members of my household safe at home, to the extent possible.

people with little to no income or savings are running out of options

 

[ZeApelido]

We should all realize that most likely net deaths will remain about the same. Everyone dies of something. Without Coronavirus they would die of a "thing". If they die of Coronavirus then they will not die of that thing. So they won't be counted as a death attributed to that thing, it will just move to the Covid column.
Death causes are a zero sum game; particularly with Covid which doesn't (ok, very rarely) kill people who are healthy.

Oh, now I get what a "deplorable" is.

 

[dqd88]

I think you are mathematically challenged. Every life lost sooner, reduces avg life expectancy.

BTW, do you have any older relatives - like parents ? Do they know you couldn't care less whether they are dead or alive ?

I think you are word challenged. I didn't say it wouldn't reduce life expectancy. I said it would not change it in a "material way". I guess nuance escapes you.

In other words, yes in absolute terms, it would reduce it, but the effect would be nominal.
Far more impactful in moving the life expectancy needle are public attitudes and behaviors around drug/alcohol/tobacco use, auto safety, exercise, mental health, stress, etc.

Yes I have parents and I would advise them to take common sense precautions, as should everyone.

 

[EVNow]

Richard Neher on Twitter

The preprint on #SARSCoV2 seroprevalence in Santa Clara County continues to make headlines. They estimate 2-4% of the population had #COVID19 by April 4 implying an infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.1 to 0.2%. But there are many reasons to be very skeptical. Thread...​

 

[EVNow]

Yes I have parents and I would advise them to take common sense measures, as should everyone. I'm not running around saying to keep everything shut down to save my parents, because that's stupid and selfish and unnecessary.

That seems very "nuanced".

Still waiting for any reasons you could come up with for your unhinged rant.

 

[dqd88]

Oh, now I get what a "deplorable" is.

We're not gonna get anywhere, and definitely not to the truth, if you resort to ad hominem attacks.

 

[Norbert]

A decent percentage of people who are contagious, but don't know it and can't be detected except through the full virus test makes this thing almost impossible to stop short of herd immunity (either through cases or a vaccine).

I don't quite understand this sentence in the context of other things you wrote. South Korea succeeded in stopping it, to a large degree by test & trace (nothing that should be impossible for the US), and China was apparently able to limit it to one region (more or less, probably) by different means. No country, at least not as a whole, has gone through the herd immunity process. Not even NYC is close, Herd immunity just is not an option.

Plus, this most likely will not be the last pandemic. The next one might be even more deadly. If we don't learn to stop an epidemic this time, next time we may not be able to learn it fast enough even if we try.

 

[Daniel in SD]

people with little to no income or savings are running out of options

There should definitely be more help for people who are self employed.

 

[dqd88]

Belgium continues to have a lot of fatalities.

Infact in countries with over 50 deaths, it has the highest deaths /1 M population.

ps : The testing situation is either bad (> 25% of tests are +ve) or they have a very high infection rate. Brazil seems to be the worst in this - over 50% are +ve.

And why do you think that is?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Would have to view those numbers relative to totals. But it seems those numbers agree with my hypothesis.
It really depends on what % increase in net deaths for each age group are moved by Covid. Seems it would be an immaterial % from napkin

This is the problem Daniel. You can't just look at raw numbers. No context. Doesn't tell you anything. You have to view it in context - ie, relative to total deaths, relative to other infectious diseases, etc.

You said the average age of a person who dies from COVID-19 is 80 years old. That's definitely not true for NYC.

 

[defc0n]

There should definitely be more help for people who are self employed.

my greatest worry now other than those getting sick of course is the general populace essentially revolting due to their lifeblood being forcibly cut off. Prior to this I was concerned about overwhelming the health care system but not so much now.

I don’t think there has been enough care or strong enough plan put into place for those shut out of work. These stimulus checks won’t be enough for many.

meanwhile rich people sit at home in their McMansions telling everyone to just deal with it while they live easily off their savings or just working from home.

I hate this virus.

 

[dqd88]

You said the average age of a person who dies from COVID-19 is 80 years old. That's definitely not true for NYC.

It would vary by region depending on the demographics. I was just going by a global average.

 

[dhanson865]

> French Defense Minister Florence Parly told lawmakers that 1,081 of the 2,300 people aboard the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier—the flagship of the French navy and the country’s largest ship—have tested positive for coronavirus so far during parliamentary hearings about the infections Friday.

>1081 *so far*. The article says they tested all 2300 sailors but they're still waiting on a 1000 of the results. Which means actually 1081 of the 1300 sailors they have results for are positive, i.e. 83%.

from a forbes article and comment.

Here is an alternate source so you don't have to deal with forbes. France finds 1000 coronavirus cases on aircraft carrier

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

You realize of course that if you do not hit reply to a post but you just hit 'reply' at the bottom of the page serious people (and This Thread does have many serious members!) then have to struggle to figure out who your crabbiness is intended for? Do you intend for all of us to have to do that much extra work just because you're crabby? Seems profoundly unfair!

I was wondering what you were going on about! But this clears it up! You have RandomJohnny on ignore. Unpilot was responding to him in all the posts you had replied to. So Unpilot hadn't done anything wrong. You just misunderstood him. There's a link at the bottom of the page where you can see "ignored messages" to see this.

Edit: So if you see people responding to the thread in general, it's probably in response to someone you have on ignore.

 

[Norbert]

Basically: Why can't the US do something like South Korea did?

Or something even better? Is that asking too much?

 

[dhanson865]

Basically: Why can't the US do something like South Korea did?

Or something even better? Is that asking too much?

* South Korea is one of the planet's most densely populated countries with a density of 503 people per square kilometer, or 1,302 people per square mile.

* The population density in the United States is 36 per Km2 (94 people per mi2).

The US is just too spread out and inefficient (states vs country) to do what South Korea did so quickly.

 

[Norbert]

* South Korea is one of the planet's most densely populated countries with a density of 503 people per square kilometer, or 1,302 people per square mile.

* The population density in the United States is 36 per Km2 (94 people per mi2).

The US is just too spread out and inefficient (states vs country) to do what South Korea did so quickly.

That should make it easier according to everything I know. And even if: Is NYC not dense enough for you?

 

[dhanson865]

US passed 700,000 confirmed cases, should be past the 750,000 confirmed cases mark in a few hours.

 

[dhanson865]

That should make it easier according to everything I know. And even if: Is NYC not dense enough for you?

South Korea is essentially an island (Northern Border is a DMZ with armed guards on both sides) the rest is a close enough single government zone with water surrounding it. Very easy to cut off international travel by land, air, and sea.

Once you stop travel it's just about dealing with what you have. They had a much simpler equation to solve.

US has 50 states all with governments that don't want to cooperate with any other state they don't have to and don't want to cooperate with the federal government.

We have international land borders North and South that are passable by foot, car, etcetera. We have state borders that are passable by foot, car, etcetera in all directions.

We can't even stop travel, which was South Korea's first step, let alone do the 2nd step South Korea took. And that all comes down to Geography and Population Density.