Twitter canceled thousands of QAnon related accounts. Hardly left wingnuts.
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Coronavirus
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Twitter canceled thousands of QAnon related accounts. Hardly left wingnuts.
Slums of Mumbai are in a race with the poorest neighborhoods in nyc, as far as herd immunity goes.
As poor and densely populated Mumbai's slums are, it's taking them longer to reach this dubious achievement than the impoverished hot spots in the USA. 57% of Mumbai slumdwellers have Covid antibodies: Sero survey - Times of India
As poor and densely populated Mumbai's slums are, it's taking them longer to reach this dubious achievement than the impoverished hot spots in the USA. 57% of Mumbai slumdwellers have Covid antibodies: Sero survey - Times of India
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
57% is likely higher than almost any similar sized location in the US, except institutionalized populations.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Any guesses for the over/under on the time it will take for the MLB season to be indefinitely postponed?
Apparently teams are staying in hotels open to the public, with weddings, etc.
My guess is about 3-4 weeks.
Apparently teams are staying in hotels open to the public, with weddings, etc.
My guess is about 3-4 weeks.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Slightly surprised it is that high, but not shocked. I would have guessed 40-50%. Wonder how big these studies were relative to the 7000 tests (?) in India.
It depends on the disease, but early on I was reading 70-80% was needed, though 60% is getting into the ballpark.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
That’s for an Rt of 2 (threshold = 1 - 1/R). The exact threshold depends on the effectiveness (and consistency) of measures that change the R, as I understand it (I may not be completely correct here).
For these boroughs, in a completely unmitigated epidemic, it would likely have overshot to ~80%. The herd immunity threshold assumes a starting point of 1 infection. It doesn’t account for an epidemic that has momentum when the threshold is reached (you could imagine that if 10% of the population has the disease when 60% (say) threshold is reached, that that 10% will definitely infect some of the remaining 40% susceptible). The reason an Rt of 2 means 50% threshold is that theoretically that one person who would on average normally infect two people, would on average infect just one, because on average half of the people would not be susceptible. So the infections would begin to die out at that threshold.
In any case, these high seroprevalence numbers really show up the huge contingent on Twitter (including a Nobel laureate and (most likely) Elon) these days who are somehow convinced that outbreaks magically die out at 20% infected, due to herd immunity. That’s true when Rt is less than 1.25. So I guess technically they are correct. But look out when the masks come off and people try to party like it’s 2019. At 20% immune, you have to either have zero infections, or you have to keep Rt less than 1.25, via whatever measures you choose.
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bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Most of the world has a population FAR more intelligent and FAR more reasonable than that of the USA.
What is bizarre is they have millions to spend to deal with it in a population of hundreds and they failed to get through a week without a large outbreak. It is insane to think any schools can deal with it.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
It's not about the money, it's about the commitment and buying into the simple stuff like social distancing, mask wearing, and surface sanitation (i.e. clean up the dugouts, have wipes available, etc.). They are cheap, but effective, solutions.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I think the exposure of the teams to the community is more of an ongoing issue. It seems they’re ignoring that part. Unless they avoid locker rooms and all other indoor environments for the team, I don’t know how they will be able to prevent spread within the team once it is introduced from the community. Masks will help, but there are just too many opportunities in an environment like a locker room and similar team facilities.
The problem is, even if you don’t have much spread between players, you’re going to have constant exposures of players. It’s just really risky to be traveling all over the country constantly.
I guess it is possible they are going for herd immunity. That’s trendy, possibly because people think it is a 20% threshold.
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Daniel in SD
(supervised)
That study was PCR positivity rate early on in the NYC outbreak. Which of course was mostly a sample of people who were very sick. (https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa922/5868956?searchresult=1)
Highest seroprevalence in NYC was Morrisania in the Bronx at 43%. That's probably not a very scientific study though. (Coronavirus News: Cuomo calls for outreach to hardest hit low-income areas)
I suspect like the one golf cart video tweet he retweeted not that long ago that he simply heard the drug mentioned and “not necessary to wear masks“ so retweeted. As we’ve seen before on many occasions he doesn’t seem to fully vet anything before putting it out there, more TV entertainer than presidential behavoir. But then maybe he believes all that. I kind of feel for his staff having to explain his support of this person. Nah LOL. Kind of fun to see them respond. Oh to be a fly on their walls when they have to plan how to counteract some of this stuff. This woman really takes the cake though and has provided some real entertainment. I couldn’t get through reading the article relating what she said and has said before without bursting out laughing. He sure knows how to side himself with some excellent people.
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Agreed but with money they could hire people to monitor all that. Hire people to clean up after them. No school board can afford the testing or the people needed to clean and monitor.
scottf200
Well-Known Member
Sweden at 10%-13% from my reading over time.
27-Jul-2020
* Sweden hoped herd immunity would curb COVID-19. Don't do what we did. It's not working.
* Sweden's approach to COVID has led to death, grief and suffering. The only example we're setting is how not to deal with a deadly infectious disease.
25 Swedish doctors and scientists Opinion contributors
Sweden has often been considered a leader when it comes to global humanitarian issues, regarded as a beacon of light in areas such as acceptin
Sweden's COVID death toll is unnerving due to herd immunity experiment
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Thanks. That makes more sense. I didn't have time to chase the links yesterday, and as usual the headline was a bit misleading.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I don't think the games are the major source of concern (though locker rooms are certainly a risk, and certainly transmission between teams can occur at games). It's all the 90+% of the time spent not playing where most of the infections will occur, both from the community to the team, and between team members, presumably. The community is where all teams will get exposed, and it doesn't really matter if there is transmission between teams or not.
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