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https://www.fda.gov/media/141570/download

This is the antigen test from Abbott that was in the news a month ago that was announced for distribution today at the White House.

Hopefully they actually do a good job of rolling it out. In theory it should enable more activities - if used correctly. Obviously there are tons of other things that need to be done to maximize effectiveness. None of which will be done.

97.1% sensitivity and 98.5% specificity. I can't find the detailed data. That's going to mean a lot of false positives, so positive results will need to be followed up by RT-PCR if the symptoms (or lack of them) are not consistent with COVID.

I'll believe the impact when I hear about tests being widely available. I wonder how this additional testing will be accounted for in the daily testing numbers.

Way better to have 150 million of these than not have them, though! 100 million are going towards school reopening, 50 million as follows: 18 million for nursing homes; 15 million for assisted living facilities; 10 million for home, health, and hospice care agencies; and nearly 1 million for HBCUs. (7 million unaccounted for)

It would not have made an appreciable difference.

Look at the general level of STUPID in this country, it doesn't stop at the WH.

I disagree. There have been many opportunities to make large differences in the numbers, in spite of people being resistant to it. In fact, as head of a Republican administration, Trump was optimally positioned to gather the country in a united effort to eliminate the virus. Would have been much more difficult for a Democrat. But instead, it was politicized. But, that's the last I'll say on that more political discussion. Mostly we just need to just crush this thing like a bug.
 
In literally the least surprising development to date in this pandemic, Sweden has now more than doubled in cases from their minimum a couple weeks ago, and Stockholm has quadrupled in the last two weeks.

Not a surprise at all of course; everyone expected this to happen. Sorry to bore with expected "news." But, it's still disappointing. (At least they are testing quite a lot - positivity is still fairly low in an absolute sense.)

https://www.thelocal.se/20200902/co...bout-the-outbreak-in-sweden-timeline-part-two
 

TN governor doesn't want to be left out.

Gov. Lee to remove restrictions on businesses, gatherings in 89 counties

>Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee will be lifting all restrictions on businesses and gatherings in 89 of the state’s 95 counties, the governor announced on Tuesday.

>The governor also signed an executive order that will allow county mayors in those 89 counties to institute a mask mandate through Oct. 30.

>Restrictions in Davidson, Hamilton, Knox, Madison, Shelby and Sullivan counties will be up to the local health departments.
 
There was a poll but I don't think any prize is offered.
TMC Coronavirus Ghoul Pool
I guessed 0.05%-0.07% and we're at .063%! Unfortunately it's not the end of 2020 yet so I think I've lost. :(
Interesting that the most popular selection, 0.1%-0.2%, is very likely to be right! Wisdom of crowds.

I must have been in a reaaaly dark mood when I answered that poll. I got it more wrong than you by a ton.

I didn't do the math back then to see what the percentages equaled out to in raw numbers.

upload_2020-9-29_22-18-35.png
 
Two universities welcomed students on campus. Only one tested for Covid-19

"Despite warnings from the county health department, students and staff, UNC invited students back for a mix of in-person and online instruction. Some canceled their on-campus housing agreements, but roughly 6,000 were in dorms the first week of class.
The university opted against mandatory testing for students prior to their re-entry, stating that widespread testing went against CDC recommendations and that it could “create a false sense of security”.

The following week, more than 130 students and staff tested positive.

The university quickly reversed course, moving its classes online and asking students to leave campus.
“This is certainly not what we were hoping for this fall semester,” Kevin Guskiewicz, the UNC chancellor, said at the time."
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'hoping' - over 7 months into this still operating based on hope...
 
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Two universities welcomed students on campus. Only one tested for Covid-19

"Despite warnings from the county health department, students and staff, UNC invited students back for a mix of in-person and online instruction. Some canceled their on-campus housing agreements, but roughly 6,000 were in dorms the first week of class.
The university opted against mandatory testing for students prior to their re-entry, stating that widespread testing went against CDC recommendations and that it could “create a false sense of security”.

The following week, more than 130 students and staff tested positive.

The university quickly reversed course, moving its classes online and asking students to leave campus.
“This is certainly not what we were hoping for this fall semester,” Kevin Guskiewicz, the UNC chancellor, said at the time."
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'hoping' - over 7 months into this still operating based on hope...
So they sent them home to infect everyone else. Is there no one at UNC that has any comprehension of viral spread?
 
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'hoping' - over 7 months into this still operating based on hope...

As an American, I can assure you that magical thinking is one of our finest qualities. (Not saying you aren't American, to be clear - I have no idea.)

I guess technically, under the new stricter standards, I may not be American, since both of my parents have chosen not to become naturalized citizens over the past 45 years.
 
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“Just another flu”

Source/credit Marc Bevand, link in photo.

Note it is semilog, so this nicely shows exponential increase in risk with age. For both flu and COVID, for the most part (except for the young, where things are different, fortunately).

By the way, using the data in this plot you end up with a US IFR of a little over 0.7%, assuming uniform incidence in all age groups.

6F46A651-5774-48EF-956A-A77E9F18B7C9.jpeg
 
Last edited:
The role of T-cells in SARS-CoV-2 virus defense
SARS-CoV-2-derived peptides define heterologous and COVID-19-induced T cell recognition | Nature Immunology
upload_2020-10-1_21-37-20.png


Cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 peptides revealed pre-existing T cell responses in 81% of unexposed individuals and validated similarity with common cold coronaviruses, providing a functional basis for heterologous immunity in SARS-CoV-2 infection.


The collection of unexposed individuals (PRE collection, n = 185) includes samples of healthy blood donors (blood donations for research purpose from the Department of Transfusion Medicine, University Hospital Tübingen) that were never exposed to SARS-CoV-2, as the PBMCs of these donors were isolated and asserted (Department of Immunology, Tübingen) before the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic (June 2007 to November 2019).

Ok, so 81% of sample of healthy bood doners somewhere in Europe had some level of immune response vs Covid19 despite never being exposed to Covid-19.
 
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“Just another flu”

Source/credit Marc Bevand, link in photo.

Note it is semilog, so this nicely shows exponential increase in risk with age. For both flu and COVID, for the most part (except for the young, where things are different, fortunately).

By the way, using the data in this plot you end up with a US IFR of a little over 0.7%, assuming uniform incidence in all age groups.

meanwhile, in Oz, despite the covid19 deaths, 32,398 residents died between January 1 and July 31, 2020 - 985 fewer deaths than the same period in 2019!!!!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...influenza-at-record-lows-20200912-p55uzt.html

thats not to say that covid19 is less than flu, what it is to say, is that where covid19 is successfully held at bay, then the flu will also be held at bay, with great benefit.
 
The role of T-cells in SARS-CoV-2 virus defense
SARS-CoV-2-derived peptides define heterologous and COVID-19-induced T cell recognition | Nature Immunology
View attachment 594063

Cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 peptides revealed pre-existing T cell responses in 81% of unexposed individuals and validated similarity with common cold coronaviruses, providing a functional basis for heterologous immunity in SARS-CoV-2 infection.


The collection of unexposed individuals (PRE collection, n = 185) includes samples of healthy blood donors (blood donations for research purpose from the Department of Transfusion Medicine, University Hospital Tübingen) that were never exposed to SARS-CoV-2, as the PBMCs of these donors were isolated and asserted (Department of Immunology, Tübingen) before the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic (June 2007 to November 2019).

Ok, so 81% of sample of healthy bood doners somewhere in Europe had some level of immune response vs Covid19 despite never being exposed to Covid-19.

Yawn.

Yes, there are 6 other Coronaviruses out there which we have all be exposed to (common cold viruses).

Just because you have a T-cell response or an anitbody DOES NOT mean that response is an "effective immune response" and indicates immunity.

They are called "Cross Reactive" T-Cell and antibodies. There is a small chance they will help, but it's like . . . trying to fill a lake with a garden hose.