Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

Obviously, more time needs to pass to know more about full spectrum of lab studies and clinical manifestations of omicron’s effect on vaccines.

Here’s the in-vitro results from a study out of Germany (similar to what was done in SA).
That drop.

Look at the percentage that had a measurable titer though after a boost (two weeks post boost). 78%! Quite a bit better than what we see against delta after just two doses and six months (50%). And way way better than those other combinations.

So it is going to kind of depend on how the boost wanes, exactly. If the titers generally stay high, then we may see better results than we did with Delta after six months.

But clearly a challenge, and I think we’ll definitely see an efficacy drop off for boosted people, but hard to know how much (75%?). Vulnerable triple-vaccinated individuals will need to be careful or at least figure out their neutralizing antibody levels (tricky/impossible).

We still need to see how it can outcompete delta (unclear but I would guess it will) and how intrinsically severe it is.

And we need to know the protection level afforded by t-cells in triple-vaccinated individuals if they get a breakthrough. Will it be 50% efficacy against hospitalization? Or 90%?

 

[Unpilot]

One data point.

Got my booster yesterday....just a little sore at injection site.

Feel great otherwise.

 

[ohmman]

One data point.

Got my booster yesterday....just a little sore at injection site.

Feel great otherwise.

I got mine on Monday (Pfizer) and had arm soreness until today and a very low grade fever for the first half of Tuesday. Mild symptoms, happy to have it done before the holidays.

 

[madodel]

Two over-the-counter drugs could effectively fight COVID-19.

Diphenhydramine and lactoferrin

“In lab tests on human and monkey cells, the combination was particularly potent: Individually, the two compounds each inhibited SARS-CoV-2 virus replication by about 30%. Together, they reduced virus replication by 99%.”

Note there have been no human clinical trials. This is purely based on lab cell studies. Now of course people will commence hoarding Benadryl and storing it with their warehouse full of toilet paper.

 

[msm859]

Good luck. I hope you stay well. I'm fully vaccinated and boosted but I would not set foot in a restaurant, even a well-ventilated one that's not crowded. Indoors with unmasked people eating and shouting at each other.



I guess I need to change my position from "there's no downside" to "it's well worth the very small risk, given the benefit." A neighbor of mine with bad allergies had such a strong reaction to her first shot that she has not gotten another.

Like you, I have a regular exercise routine and am well aware when I'm a bit more tired than normal, or a bit stronger than normal. Given my very mild reactions to my three shots, I will continue to get all recommended vaccines, as soon as available. There are days when, for no reason I can determine, I'm more tired. And other days when I'm stronger. The shots had minimal if any effect on my energy level.

What if it was a restaurant that required proof of vaccinations to get in? Was at the LA auto show couple of weeks back and went out for dinner that night with my wife. LA is now requiring proof of vaccination to go inside. We were both happy to be in a restaurant knowing everyone was vaccinated.

 

[Double-O]

What if it was a restaurant that required proof of vaccinations to get in? Was at the LA auto show couple of weeks back and went out for dinner that night with my wife. LA is now requiring proof of vaccination to go inside. We were both happy to be in a restaurant knowing everyone was vaccinated.

This is a minor issue many have overcome with falsifying documents. You never truly know who is or isn't vaccinated. Those cards are easy to come by and just as easy to get registered in the "system"

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

What if it was a restaurant that required proof of vaccinations to get in? Was at the LA auto show couple of weeks back and went out for dinner that night with my wife. LA is now requiring proof of vaccination to go inside. We were both happy to be in a restaurant knowing everyone was vaccinated.

I think it depends on one’s baseline risk if you’re fully vaccinated. Namely, age and BMI.

And of course if you live with anyone who is vulnerable, that matters too.

Proof of vaccination is excellent, but it is imperfect of course.

Those cards are easy to come by and just as easy to get registered in the "system"

I doubt a high percentage of people are committing federal crimes to get and use fake vaccine cards.

The proof of vaccination requirement clearly lowers risk, but there’s obviously some residual risk due to breakthrough infections, which is reducing as boosters become more widespread, and will then return when Omicron becomes widespread.

Such breakthroughs are a much higher risk than the risk of an unvaccinated person with a fake card, simply due to the quantity of each.

 

[ohmman]

I doubt a high percentage of people are committing federal crimes to get and use fake vaccine cards.

Yeah, people frequently speed but speed limits still save lives.

 

[JRP3]

What if it was a restaurant that required proof of vaccinations to get in? Was at the LA auto show couple of weeks back and went out for dinner that night with my wife. LA is now requiring proof of vaccination to go inside. We were both happy to be in a restaurant knowing everyone was vaccinated.

Of course vaccination is no guarantee that people aren't infected or that you couldn't catch it. I won't be eating indoors in public until things drastically improve, and currently they are heading in the wrong direction.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

T cell epitopes likely to be conserved. This is good news for the boosted and infected + vaccinated. (Also not that surprising.)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1469007626306392064

However, large numbers of infections are still problematic for hospital capacity. Hopefully things will be better than it appears they will be, and boosters keep a lid on things.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1468988174693289994

Omicron has made it to San Diego…

 

[scottf200]

"This is a small but striking sample that points to how evasive Omicron may be. 11/"

"It’s not only vaccine protection that Omicron is eroding—it’s also infection-induced immunity. Omicron poses about a 5X greater risk of reinfection than Delta among people who have had Covid previously. Get vaccinated as soon as possible, and get boosted when you’re eligible. 12/"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1469512291112599554

 

[Yuri_G]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1469784763527360513

Delta was around an Rt of 1.5-2.0 when it became the dominant variant in the US.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Those are some healthy growth rates! Hope they are cranking on those Omicron boosters!

Seems like Omicron could be dominant by the end of December at this rate! Sure hope it turns out to be mild.

If I don’t end up picking up COVID (Delta) from my superspreading work party yesterday (felt good to be “normal,” but also felt very hazardous at the same time, so did not feel normal), I’m definitely adjusting my risk thresholds again until mid-February or so. The wife has expressed she does not want COVID (I’m a bit more blasé at this point - kind of hoping it’ll be like a superbooster, if I pick up Delta), so we’ll have to take appropriate measures. No more dine in, after two forays in the last couple boosted months. I don’t think I will bring the full-face respirator back but we’ll see.

We'll see on the work party. I went into it eyes wide open, knowing it's the sort of party that ends up on the news ("Fully Vaccinated (Mostly Boosted) Party Turns Into Superspreading Event."). I also knew the ventilation would be awful because I knew the venue. And I knew that the people in charge didn't want to think about it. So far so good! I'm not sure what to think about the whole situation. If boosted, on one level I feel like I should just go back to mostly normal (wear a mask indoors, eat outside). On the other hand I have to take the wishes of others into account...

I fully anticipate taking a break from traveling into the office again in the new year, at least for the first few weeks. It's just not worth the stress on the home front... I'll be quarantining in advance of travel this week.

 

[scottf200]

12-Dec-2021 9:21 am CT

 

[SO16]

Well my hospital again for the 3rd time in a year is full, having to turn away ambulances and stop elective surgeries. So anyone that has a heart attack/stroke/car accident near my hospital now has to travel much farther to the next hospital about a half hour away. Not good when time is critical. Our ED is full and so are the beds.

And many of those patients clogging up beds? People that thought they were healthy and young enough.

Just heard on the news that 3 large hospital chains in my city are 90% full and ICU is 100% full. They have already turned away over 700 patients! This affects EVERYONE.

This virus will be around for years. But there is no doubt that the unvaccinated are making this worse and last longer.

Update: well my west MI hospital now has 17 fewer patients with Covid than the high about a week ago. Resources freed up a little bit. So that’s good!

Just ignore that roughly half that number left in a body bag in about the same time period.

 

[daniel]

What if it was a restaurant that required proof of vaccinations to get in? Was at the LA auto show couple of weeks back and went out for dinner that night with my wife. LA is now requiring proof of vaccination to go inside. We were both happy to be in a restaurant knowing everyone was vaccinated.

Requiring proof of vaccination is good and I'd love to see every place of business doing that. But I am 73 years old, so even though my risks are low (three shots) they are not zero. And restaurants are not a high priority for me. They have just about nothing I can eat (low-sodium diet: restaurants use a ton of salt on everything) and I enjoy my own home cooking. So the benefits would not justify the risk.

 

[daniel]

Those are some healthy growth rates! Hope they are cranking on those Omicron boosters!

Seems like Omicron could be dominant by the end of December at this rate! Sure hope it turns out to be mild.

If I don’t end up picking up COVID (Delta) from my superspreading work party yesterday (felt good to be “normal,” but also felt very hazardous at the same time, so did not feel normal), I’m definitely adjusting my risk thresholds again until mid-February or so. The wife has expressed she does not want COVID (I’m a bit more blasé at this point - kind of hoping it’ll be like a superbooster, if I pick up Delta), so we’ll have to take appropriate measures. No more dine in, after two forays in the last couple boosted months. I don’t think I will bring the full-face respirator back but we’ll see.

We'll see on the work party. I went into it eyes wide open, knowing it's the sort of party that ends up on the news ("Fully Vaccinated (Mostly Boosted) Party Turns Into Superspreading Event."). I also knew the ventilation would be awful because I knew the venue. And I knew that the people in charge didn't want to think about it. So far so good! I'm not sure what to think about the whole situation. If boosted, on one level I feel like I should just go back to mostly normal (wear a mask indoors, eat outside). On the other hand I have to take the wishes of others into account...

I fully anticipate taking a break from traveling into the office again in the new year, at least for the first few weeks. It's just not worth the stress on the home front... I'll be quarantining in advance of travel this week.

Good luck. It sounds like your risks were low, and you made the decision the event was important enough to take the chance. I hope you stay well.

We all decide what risks to take. I swim in the ocean in spite of the possibility of encountering dangerous animals (jellies scare me the most) because it's worth the risk. For me, restaurants aren't worth the risk.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

12-Dec-2021 9:21 am CT

Yeah, skyrocketing cases seem certain now, and the onset should be quite apparent by Christmas. What the impact will be is much less clear.

The Delta “final” wave seems to have settled down and leveled off, so not sure if my prediction will end up close (further surging is possible of course), but it was not too far off, though things are leveling off earlier than I expected:

I predict a 7-day average of 125k cases by very late December, which will be the last big peak

Obviously Omicron is going to change this; I expect to see cases look relatively level for the next week or so, and then we’ll see Omicron start to poke up as Delta starts to decay. Should be relatively easy to separate the surges based on the sequences sampled. I guess I’d assume Omicron cases could exceed all prior peaks but it’s a little hard to say. I kind of suspect it won’t exceed winter 2020, because people are more aware and boosting and vaccination will still help. I certainly don’t expect hospitalizations to rival winter 2020. Very hard to predict though!

Denmark is really taking off! The trajectory there, the UK, and in South Africa should give us some idea of what to expect.

 

[madodel]

My wife is on call this weekend. 27 patients on her service. 23 because of COVID related cardiac problems and only 1 of them was vaccinated.

Speaking of risk, just got an email that Casablanca will be in our theater for one day in late January. I'd love to see it, but just can't imagine going to a movie in a theater would be safe even by late January.

 

[EVNow]

MSN

He would make an interesting case study