AstraZeneca was mainly given to older people here, so that doesn't explain the rate of spread. Omicron is spreading quickly here because of the capability of the variant to do so, lack of vaccination for youngsters or proper ventilation in schools. Plus our relaxed mask wearing policies. Our government is also putting too much faith in the booster program. I expect the efficacy will drop off pretty dramatically against Omicron after a few months just like it did after 2nd doses. Still keen to see Moderna data, even though that's the least common primary vaccine course given here.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
AstraZeneca was mainly given to older people here, so that doesn't explain the rate of spread. Omicron is spreading quickly here because of the capability of the variant to do so, lack of vaccination for youngsters or proper ventilation in schools. Plus our relaxed mask wearing policies. Our government is also putting too much faith in the booster program. I expect the efficacy will drop off pretty dramatically against Omicron after a few months just like it did after 2nd doses. Still keen to see Moderna data, even though that's the least common primary vaccine course given here.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Keep in mind that is a limited dataset and an older population. Have to read the fine print. Not saying that efficacy is not dramatically reduced with two shots. It is - for all vaccines. But have to read the fine print.
All vaccines need boosting. With boosting, protection against infection by Omicron is still not perfect, and will also wane. However, protection against severe disease is very likely still quite good (and even better with a boosted response). However, for those who cannot afford to fight an infection, they need to be extremely careful.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
This is interesting. Obviously, you expect dips in CFR during times of extremely rapid spread, and they may be testing more. However, it has been a while in South Africa and the excursion is very large to the low side. At least, we can say it is good that it didn't bottom out at 1-2%.
So, if you want to grasp at some hope, this is some. It doesn't mean it can't still be bad - it's likely still more intrinsically dangerous than influenza even if it is intrinsically less virulent, and the sheer number of infections could still be overwhelming, and this drop in CFR has the backdrop of a community that has very few COVID-naive, unvaccinated individuals. (This does not apply to the US, still.)
So, if you want to grasp at some hope, this is some. It doesn't mean it can't still be bad - it's likely still more intrinsically dangerous than influenza even if it is intrinsically less virulent, and the sheer number of infections could still be overwhelming, and this drop in CFR has the backdrop of a community that has very few COVID-naive, unvaccinated individuals. (This does not apply to the US, still.)
The NYT has picked up on the apparent rapid spread of Omicron in Seattle:
www.nytimes.com
Meanwhile, Seattle’s newspaper remains utterly clueless:
www.seattletimes.com
Testing indicates that the Omicron variant is surging in Washington State.
The variant, first found in the region two weeks ago, now appears to account for one out of eight new coronavirus cases, and the ratio is rising fast.
Meanwhile, Seattle’s newspaper remains utterly clueless:
COVID cases continue to decline in Washington state, but hospitals remain stretched thin
COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations are steadily going down, but concerns about limited hospital capacity remain high among health care leaders, prompting them to turn to state legislators for help.
www.seattletimes.com
Denmark and Norway Predict Drastic Spike in Omicron Cases
Health authorities in Europe are warning of a sharp increase in Omicron cases, adding to an existing surge from the Delta variant.
Can that possibly be correct? Norway has only 5.4 million people. If scaled up to the US population, that would be like 5,500,000 to 18,000,000 cases per day. The 4,700 cases per day would already be equivalent to 287,000 US cases per day (currently averaging a bit under 150,000).
Source:
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Denmark and Norway Predict Drastic Spike in Omicron Cases
Health authorities in Europe are warning of a sharp increase in Omicron cases, adding to an existing surge from the Delta variant.www.nytimes.com
Can that possibly be correct? Norway has only 5.4 million people. If scaled up to the US population, that would be like 5,500,000 to 18,000,000 cases per day. The 4,700 cases per day would already be equivalent to 287,000 US cases per day (currently averaging a bit under 150,000).
I think NYT must have botched the numbers they are quoting for Norway.
Original report here. However, they are not accounting for people taking additional precautions so these numbers likely won’t be achieved. “If the measures do not slow the epidemic significantly” is doing a lot of work here. But the case numbers are still going to be very very high.
Hold onto your hats. Better hope it is no worse than a “strenuous flu.” With prior vaccination and boosting it’ll likely be even more mild than that - but only for those people.
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Some preliminary data from SA:
Pfizer shot less effective against hospitalisation in South Africa - study
"Between Nov. 15 and Dec. 7, people who had received two doses of the shot and tested positive for COVID-19 had a 70% chance of avoiding hospitalisation, down from 93% during the previous wave of Delta infections, the study showed.
When it came to avoiding infection altogether, the study by South Africa's largest private health insurance administrator, Discovery Health, showed that protection against catching COVID-19 had slumped to 33% from 80% previously.
...
Discovery cautioned that the study's findings should be considered preliminary. Michael Head, senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton, also said there was a large degree of uncertainty for now about Omicron.
"It is important to avoid inferring too much right now from any national scenario. For example, the narrative around South Africa is that Omicron may be much milder, whereas reports out of Denmark broadly suggests the opposite," he said."
Pfizer shot less effective against hospitalisation in South Africa - study
"Between Nov. 15 and Dec. 7, people who had received two doses of the shot and tested positive for COVID-19 had a 70% chance of avoiding hospitalisation, down from 93% during the previous wave of Delta infections, the study showed.
When it came to avoiding infection altogether, the study by South Africa's largest private health insurance administrator, Discovery Health, showed that protection against catching COVID-19 had slumped to 33% from 80% previously.
...
Discovery cautioned that the study's findings should be considered preliminary. Michael Head, senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton, also said there was a large degree of uncertainty for now about Omicron.
"It is important to avoid inferring too much right now from any national scenario. For example, the narrative around South Africa is that Omicron may be much milder, whereas reports out of Denmark broadly suggests the opposite," he said."
Working fine for me. I wouldn't be here without it.
That thread is funny on my end: every single post that I can see is a response to a post that I can't see. every single one.
I think ignore is working just fine.
To be on topic this is a good collection of covid stats https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...bering-stats-coronaviruss-toll-united-states/
A stat I couldn't find is the amount of money saved from decreased Social Security payments (from early deaths) vs higher payments from disability due to long covid issues. . .
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South Africa: previous infections may explain Omicron hospitalisation rate
"High levels of previous exposure to three previous waves of coronavirus infection in South Africa may explain the relatively low levels of hospitalisation and severe disease in the current outbreak of the Omicron variant, rather than the variant itself being less virulent.
...
...Mahdi cited a recently completed seropositivity survey – the percentage of population who have already been infected – in Gauteng province, which has been at the centre of the Omicron outbreak, that suggested some 72% had experienced a previous infection of coronavirus.
That is well over three times the rate of previous infections detected by a similar survey during the Beta variant outbreak a year ago where seropositivity was some 20%.
While Mahdi said that emerging evidence pointed to the fact that Omicron was both more infectious and more able to evade antibody protection, he suggested that other mechanisms at work in acquired immunity through infection could explain the lower levels of hospitalisations and severe illness."
“The evolution of the Omicron variant is coming at a very different stage of the pandemic,” said Madhi.
“That is important to keep at the back of our minds when we see what is unfolding in South Africa and what we might see in other settings, which might have a very different epidemiology."
"High levels of previous exposure to three previous waves of coronavirus infection in South Africa may explain the relatively low levels of hospitalisation and severe disease in the current outbreak of the Omicron variant, rather than the variant itself being less virulent.
...
...Mahdi cited a recently completed seropositivity survey – the percentage of population who have already been infected – in Gauteng province, which has been at the centre of the Omicron outbreak, that suggested some 72% had experienced a previous infection of coronavirus.
That is well over three times the rate of previous infections detected by a similar survey during the Beta variant outbreak a year ago where seropositivity was some 20%.
While Mahdi said that emerging evidence pointed to the fact that Omicron was both more infectious and more able to evade antibody protection, he suggested that other mechanisms at work in acquired immunity through infection could explain the lower levels of hospitalisations and severe illness."
“The evolution of the Omicron variant is coming at a very different stage of the pandemic,” said Madhi.
“That is important to keep at the back of our minds when we see what is unfolding in South Africa and what we might see in other settings, which might have a very different epidemiology."
Omicron is on track to become the dominant variant in London within the next 48 hours.
Every adult in the UK who is 3 months past their 2nd Pfizer dose can now get a booster shot. They are aiming to give boosters to every eligible adult by the end of the year which will require giving more shots per day than they have ever done since vaccines became available.
Meanwhile, in the U.S. you are only eligible after 6 months and aside from issuing press releases there doesn’t seem to be much urgency to scaling up vaccination in a big way over the next few weeks.
Since Omicron is spreading so rapidly compared to Delta even if it is less virulent (unproven) it will likely overload hospitals again due to the suddenness of the increase and scale of possible infections in December and January.
The Omicron surge in the UK could reach 1 million new infections per day by the end of the year.
www.theguardian.com
This is video of the health minister speaking to parliament about the new urgency:
Every adult in the UK who is 3 months past their 2nd Pfizer dose can now get a booster shot. They are aiming to give boosters to every eligible adult by the end of the year which will require giving more shots per day than they have ever done since vaccines became available.
Meanwhile, in the U.S. you are only eligible after 6 months and aside from issuing press releases there doesn’t seem to be much urgency to scaling up vaccination in a big way over the next few weeks.
Since Omicron is spreading so rapidly compared to Delta even if it is less virulent (unproven) it will likely overload hospitals again due to the suddenness of the increase and scale of possible infections in December and January.
The Omicron surge in the UK could reach 1 million new infections per day by the end of the year.
UK Omicron infections ‘could reach 1m a day by end of December’
Government’s top public health adviser issues warning amid growing calls to limit Christmas gatherings
www.theguardian.com
This is video of the health minister speaking to parliament about the new urgency:
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Doggydogworld
Active Member
First, their >8% CFR peaks are just crazy and make me doubt any of their results. Second, they use a 10 day lag between deaths and cases. This spike was so rapid a 20 day lag would give a 10x higher CFR. Finally, as noted above, South Africa may have unusually high natural immunity due to prior infection. US authorities like to pretend natural immunity doesn't matter, but if we "follow the science" we learn it does.
Ultra-rapid spread of a mild strain that conferred immunity would be pretty close to a best-case scenario at this point. A Christmas miracle, or just wishful thinking?
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yeah, I think it's too much to hope for. I think we're going to see tons of cases in the US (probably all time highs - this is a revision of what I stated a few days ago):
Anyway the outcomes by type:
1) The unvaccinated are going to get clobbered. Everyone will finally get COVID, maybe. Herd immunity? Lol.
2) Prior infected, unvaccinated, are going to get clobbered to a lesser extent. Infection-acquired immunity isn't that great against Omicron it seems.
3) Also double vaccinated (naturally immune, but never infected) will have problems, but to a lesser extent than prior infections.
4) Boosted individuals (naturally immune) and boosted + infection-acquired (double natural immunity!) will generally do well.
5) The data seems to suggest the first-infected + boosted individuals (3 doses is great to increase natural immunity) do the very best. They'll have very few problems.
Overall, after seeing how things are transpiring, I expect cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, to be hitting all time highs in January and February. Simply too many people in class 1, 2, and to a lesser extent 3 in this country.
Not happening because Omicron is more virulent - I tend to think it might be slightly less virulent, but it's really hard to tell. But the very rapid spread is going to lead to a massive hit.
The good news is that boosters really see to confer very good protection. The bad news is the spread will be so fast that an Omicron-specific boost may not provide much utility by the time it becomes available.
Yes. I do tend to think the low-ish CFRs are mostly due to the lag. And maybe some immunity. Still, as I said, at least it didn't bottom out at 1%. But yeah, as I said originally, sky high growth rates will lead to very very low CFRs, and that's the biggest reason for that drop.
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A newly released study done with pseudo viruses in the lab shows a severe 122x neutralization drop for 2-shot Pfizer given within the last 3 months against Omicron vs. other cases including when boosted with a 3rd shot. Interestingly, a few people did better with more distant shots but the large majority showed almost no neutralization. With a booster, Pfizer looked about as good as Moderna with a booster.
Other vaccines and more details here:
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I should add that this category will have very few problems because the really vulnerable are already dead.
An interesting tidbit to keep an eye on, we’ll know soon whether it is some sort of statistical aberration. Not great for the 0-4 group without access to what are very likely safe vaccines for them:
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I've previously mentioned the rise in cases at CU, now they've started to shut down the campus.
www.nytimes.com
Cornell University goes on high alert after finding evidence of the Omicron variant on campus.
The school moved final exams online, canceled a December graduation ceremony and sports events and barred most visitors from its campus in Ithaca, N.Y.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Even worse, people are using the fact that 97% vaccinated Cornell has to shut down as "evidence" that vaccines don't work.
Not a big defender of either paper but both can be true. The overall number may be in decline while OmicRon rapidly makes up a larger amount of new cases. If Omicron really is mild as some are advertising maybe Seattle and world dodge a bullet.The NYT has picked up on the apparent rapid spread of Omicron in Seattle:
Testing indicates that the Omicron variant is surging in Washington State.
The variant, first found in the region two weeks ago, now appears to account for one out of eight new coronavirus cases, and the ratio is rising fast.
Meanwhile, Seattle’s newspaper remains utterly clueless:
COVID cases continue to decline in Washington state, but hospitals remain stretched thin
COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations are steadily going down, but concerns about limited hospital capacity remain high among health care leaders, prompting them to turn to state legislators for help.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Should be able to relatively easily extrapolate from other countries how we're going to do here. Christmas may give an extra boost. January is gonna be lit.
The plateau in cases is about to end, and what would probably have been a slow decline is going to resurge in a very special way.
My partner saw a Twitter thread yesterday started with this video
She's participating in a long COVID study so the thread really caught her eye. I think Long COVID is going to be a concern for generations to come. A researcher in the thread said they are seeing signs that Long COVID is an auto-immune condition and the biggest concern is that it might get worse over time. They only have less than 2 years of data, but they are seeing at least some people seem to have bouts that last a few months, it goes away, and then comes back. At least some people are seeing each bout get worse than the last.
She's participating in a long COVID study so the thread really caught her eye. I think Long COVID is going to be a concern for generations to come. A researcher in the thread said they are seeing signs that Long COVID is an auto-immune condition and the biggest concern is that it might get worse over time. They only have less than 2 years of data, but they are seeing at least some people seem to have bouts that last a few months, it goes away, and then comes back. At least some people are seeing each bout get worse than the last.
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