JRP3
Hyperactive Member
We've covered this, but you've chosen to ignore it.
Interesting. I can say the first two I had were worse than the 3rd which was barely sore for a day. All mine were Moderna.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
No casualty issue just more reasons why parents of young men might be hesitant. Events from last fall influence current behavior just like current events do. I just stumbled on the more recent article after I posted and decided to include it.
Parents are involved for adolescents and young adults 13-20ish at least. You know the original post was in response to people being concerned about their children having heart issues after vaccination. Acting like you don’t know that is being disingenuous. The study looked at ages 13-39 which includes people in the age group where parents are involved. Any concerns for 13-39 would be larger for 13-20 because risk from COVID generally increased with age.
Good point but wrong conclusion. Seroprevalence rather than PCR would catch more cases. PCR confirmation requirement leads to an undercounting if anything because many young people are asymptomatic. Bigger denominator means lower risk from infection related myocarditis making the comparison look worse for the vaccine. So your point really makes the case that the number used for infection related myocarditis rate is likely too high.
You clearly spent a lot of time trying to pick apart my post but I’m really just arguing that parents of young men who are vaccine hesitant have understandable reasons for feeling that way and that the original post I responded to may have been spreading misinformation (though I assume unintentionally) which is thankfully not (yet) punishable by fines or imprisonment.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yes it would. It's complicated though. Some of those cases were symptomatic, some were not. You could argue that symptomatic (COVID symptoms) cases are more likely to be tested of course (likely true).
Nope. You seem to be assuming (I think?) that myocarditis most likely occurs after a symptomatic infection (which would presumably be tested). I don't think that's a valid assumption. As it turns out, viral myocarditis in asymptomatic individuals is actually something that happens. It may even be more common in asymptomatic COVID that symptomatic COVID; it's plausible that a more muted immune response makes infection of the heart more likely (we don't know; it would be good to know, but very hard to find out). Focal Myocarditis after Mild COVID-19 Infection in Athletes - PubMed
So the issue that I was trying to highlight here is asymptomatic (no PCR) COVID-19 => myocarditis, which I think wouldn't be counted, since the PCR test (if it was even done) would post-date the myocarditis diagnosis (I'm not going to reread the inclusion criteria, as it's certainly possible that a PCR test would not be done at all, and it could be a while before a patient presents with myocarditis symptoms, depending on severity, at which point PCR might be negative anyway ).
In short, it's very, very complicated. There's not enough data to definitively compare vaccine myocarditis rates to COVID-19 myocarditis. Hence my original comment that the confidence intervals overlap (meaning, definitively, your posted study was inconclusive for that comparison). They should keep looking at this and tracking myocarditis (and CLEARLY quantify severity, too - this is also critical because not all myocarditis is the same), though! It's very important.
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scottf200
Well-Known Member
What goes up must come down ... but at different rates it seems.Here is a bit of good news regarding the new case trend (7-day average) as reported by John Hopkins.
New COVID-19 Cases Worldwide - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
Have countries flattened the curve? Daily confirmed new COVID-19 cases for the most affected countries over time.coronavirus.jhu.edu
YLE: "South Africa is taking its time with the descent. While it took 3 weeks to peak, it’s been almost 5 weeks in the descent and hasn’t reached pre-Omicron levels yet."
State of Affairs: Jan 18
Last week the World Health Organization reported more than 15 million cases of COVID19, which is so high that they had to change the y-axis scale of their epi curve. During the WHO press conference, one advisor said, “
yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com
scottf200
Well-Known Member
So 5 pages later… you are agreeing with me that the risk of myocarditis in young men from vaccination merits concern.
You are conceding that many countries have opted to either not vaccinate young men or limit them to one dose.
Guardian article
NIPH article
BBC article
Reuters article
The scientist article
And I’m assuming at this point you are acknowledging that parents, who are not experts, are being reasonable when they are unsure about vaccinating their sons based on all this uncertainty.
And you are tacitly agreeing with me, by pointing out all the uncertainty, that the original statement which I responded to
Is at best speculation and at worst misinformation based on the available data because of uncertainty. (And I don’t mean to pick on this person it is a widely publicized claim so they are understandably repeating it)
But you’d like me to throw in the caveat that asymptomatic COVID related myocarditis might tilt the scales a bit one way or maybe the large number of asymptomatic cases tilts the scales the other way but it’s complicated to figure out for sure? I can live with that.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Some 4th dose info from Israel:
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Israel sticks with 4th vaccine shot, sees Omicron wave waning next week
Israel will continue to offer a fourth COVID-19 vaccine shot despite preliminary findings that it is not enough to prevent Omicron infections, the Health Ministry said on Tuesday, predicting contagions stoked by the variant will wane in a week.www.reuters.com
This was VERY interesting data. Basically, it looks like effectiveness plateaued after the 3rd dose. As the 4th dose didn't offer any real protection.
Basically, the antibodies only partially protect against Omicron, and boosting them further didn't help (I mentioned this in an argument we had about a month ago in this thread). We've gotten as much as we can out of the current shots, at least in respect to Omicron.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
This is true in regards to this will always be with us, we're approaching endemic now.
What I don't agree with is whether we will have shots for every future variant or not. Despite what the lay person may think, vaccines usually LOSE money for the manufacturers. Manufacturers, if we are being honest, would much rather sell you a monoclonal antibody to treat COVID, which they can charge 10-20k per person for (because it costs 5-10k per person to make - "biologics" like that are expensive). For the same amount of money, they will effectively "cure" 5 to 10,000 people with vaccines. They have no recurring revenue. Sad, but it is true.
What will determine if we have boosters for different variants is how deadly those variants continue to be. If we get down to "common cold" deadly, boosters will stop (no one will take them, they will be no demand). If we stop at influenza level deadly, there will be boosters, but it will probably be for certain age groups (i.e. 65 and older, or 25 and older with comorbidities like diabetes, etc.).
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Never said it didn’t. We should study side effects and quantify rates. Who would not want to do that? Your claim was that your paper showed that myocarditis risk from vaccine is higher than that from COVID-19 (that’s not what it shows - it says they are statistically the about the same).
No, obviously I am not acknowledging that since it makes no sense. The risks, based on the data, overlap, for just myocarditis. But we know there are many other serious risks of COVID in young people, and they clearly outweigh vaccine-induced myocarditis, even in young healthy men.
And while there are not detailed papers on it, I think taking that into account, we can also give some weight to doctors treating patients who say that myocarditis from the vaccine is typically less severe than that from COVID (though perhaps not always).
In life there are risks. Take the lower risk path in a situation like this, and pay attention for this side effect in the high risk group, and get Pfizer. That’s what I think is reasonable for parents to do.
Your study shows the risks of myocarditis are similar in young men. It seems clear to me that it’s likely myocarditis from the vaccine is being counted better than that from COVID. You’re dealing with a known documented exposure vs. one that is not well documented.
FloridaSun
Member
I think that what level of protection needs greatly depends on age. From almost 900k COVID related deaths, LESS THAN 60k were under the age of 50 and a majority of those under 50 that died from it had underlying conditions like diabetis etc.. So, your chance of dying from COVID19, even if unvaccinated are just slightly higher than the flu if you are under 50 and have no health issues. This pandemic is mostly affecting the elderly. My parents are 81 and 83 and they both had 3 shots of Pfizer each and if I was that age, I would get every available booster shot too. However, in my demographic and the fact that I have no major health issues, with my 2 shots of Pfizer, my chance of getting seriously ill with COVID are very very low and I don't see the need for a booster.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
It's not just death. You need to bear in mind long-term complications. Look up "Long-COVID Syndrome" for more info. We literally have millions of people with long-lasting complications from this, and those people are in the 30-65 age range. Many of them with no underlying medical conditions.
FloridaSun
Member
I can't find any official statistics on long term complications. What I know from my circle of acquaintances and friends, MANY of them had COVID and none of them had any lasting damage. However, none of my friends are in a high risk demographic. I know tons of people who had it.. Me and my wife (she had 2 shots Moderna and I had 2 shots Pfizer) just had scratchy throat which is common with Omicron and we both tested negative, so we have doged the bullet so far.. We do NOT take any precautions and frequently meet with friends and very few people here in Central Florida use face masks.. maybe 20%...
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview
COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.
www.webmd.com
We’ll have to just agree to disagree at this point. The WHO and numerous countries agree with what I’ve posted about being cautious or limiting young men to one dose. Canada and the US are full speed ahead with double vaxxing and boosting teenage boys. Both are reasonable paths IMO I just want to make clear that the more cautious path with teenage boys is not unreasonable, misinformation, or outside of the mainstream consensus in many developed parts of the world.
If I had a teenage boy he’d get a single shot of Pfizer and I’d call it a day.
According to my wife, myocarditis/pericarditis is not the main cardiac issue with COVID from what she is seeing locally, it's all the A-Fib and other arrhythmias she is seeing everyday in COVID patients, many of whom were asymptomatic or mild symptom COVID cases. COVID has brought a large number of these cases into the hospital and her office. Will be interesting to see how much of this resolves over time or if it will be permanent disability for many.Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview
COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Right, that makes sense. Myocarditis is an inflammatory reaction, which would be transitory. But if that inflammation damaged the conduction system of the heart, which is pretty sensitive to inflammation as I understand it, then it would result in various arrythmias. The conduction system is nervous tissue, so I personally don't have high hopes for a lot of resolution of these problems, long-term.
FloridaSun
Member
This really needs to be broken down by age. I would bet that the more serious issues mostly apply to older COVID patients. As I said, I know MANY people who had it and most of our circle of friends is in their late 30's to late 50's and not a single one of like 25 people in my closer circle of acquaintances and friends had long timer side effects.. 0% of 25 people. I don't have any elderly people in my circle of friends and my parents who are in their 80's have not had COVID19 and have all 3 shots..Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview
COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.
Friend of ours who had 2 shots of Moderna (she was vaccinated January 2021 as she was a healthcare voluneer and had access to the vaccine early) just gave birth while having Omicron.. Baby was not infected and she had to stay away from the baby for a couple days as she was infected..
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Anecdotally we know there are people who have a fear of shots/needles. I wonder how many anti-vaxxers and anti-booster people really have a needle phobia and are cherry picking reports to justify avoiding the shots.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
If you want to deep dive, read the references on that paper. That is a summary study, it's just aggregating all of the many studies that have been done on this.
Again - people don't want to get vaccinated, I don't care anymore. But, don't come to me expecting to raise my taxes to pay for their increased costs of healthcare through Medicaid, etc. either. This knife cuts both ways.
No phobia here. My immune system told me that I just don't need the vaccine since I've had it. Besides loss of taste n smell, woulda never known otherwise. Not an anti-vaxxer as me and my kids have all had various shots over time. We all had it and it only affected our taste n smell. My wife had a little fatigue as well but nothing else. Went about our lives same as any other day pre-pandemic and still do. None of us are vaxxed or plan on getting vaxxed.
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