Coronavirus

[heltok]

What's the conspiracy?

Take RFK Jr seriously: what RFK Jr. gets right and wrong

Because the media screwed up Covid19 policy & because of how they choose to cover him, RFK Jr's influence is destined to grow

vinayprasadmdmph.substack.com

(According to the comments, Vinay misunderstood some of RFKs argument about DTaP vs DTP)

 

[nwdiver]

Getting so hard to tell what's satire these days....

 

[DrGriz]

Worthwhile synopsis of the state of the origin debate:
(free)

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2305081?query=TOC&cid=NEJM%20eToc,%20June%2022,%202023%20DM2243420_NEJM_Non_Subscriber&bid=1628873835

 

[scottf200]

 

[Norbert]

Is this the de-classification that was supposed to reveal any evidence behind the DoE's "low-confidence" and the FBI's moderate-confidence assessments of the lab-leak theory? Sounds like there wasn't much behind all that excitement.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/23/covid-origins-us-intelligence/

Freshly declassified U.S. government intelligence about the origins of the covid-19 pandemic reveals some new insights into China’s virus research but no additional clarity about how the global outbreak began and is unlikely to settle that debate, which has exacerbated tensions between Washington and Beijing and fueled a heated dispute among scientists, lawmakers and government officials.

 

[DrGriz]

All we really know is that the US security agencies didn't find enough data to dismiss lab-leak out of hand, which WHO seems to have done at the time.

The lesson is to be true scientists and probe yourself for assumptions, especially when you know that you don't have all of the information.

 

[madodel]

New U.S. intelligence report sheds little light on covid origins

The disclosure is unlikely to settle a heated debate about the pandemic’s origins, which has exacerbated tensions between Washington and Beijing

In May 2021, President Biden instructed U.S. intelligence agencies to examine the virus’s origins, based partly on their own classified sources of information, including about the Chinese government’s response to the outbreak. Intelligence officials previously reported that the agencies did not reach consensus, though most of them tended to favor the natural origins scenario.

The new report, which was required by law and released Friday evening, adds little to those earlier assessments, which remain unchanged, but it addresses some specific potential links that lab leak proponents have raised.

The report mainly focuses on potential connections between the pandemic and the Wuhan Institute of Virology, including collaborations between researchers at the civilian institute and the People’s Liberation Army, China’s military. The WIV was conducting extensive research on coronaviruses.

The intelligence agencies found that “some of the research conducted by the PLA and the WIV included work with several viruses, including coronaviruses, but no known viruses that could plausibly be a progenitor of SARS-CoV-2,” the virus that causes covid-19, according to the report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

 

[NikolaACDC]

A Reddit post

https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/14jbki6

with links to the paper
https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/sciadv.adf9742

and an article/news-release about it
New excess mortality estimates show increases in US rural mortality during second year of COVID-19 pandemic

" New excess mortality estimates show increases in US rural mortality during second year of COVID-19 pandemic
...
Between the first and second year of the COVID-19 pandemic, excess deaths decreased in large metropolitan counties and increased in rural counties in the United States, according to a new study led by Boston University School of Public Health (BUSPH) and The University of Pennsylvania (UPenn).
...
Published in the journal Science Advances, the findings show that the high excess death rates that burdened large metropolitan areas in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions in the initial months of the pandemic began to shift to non-metropolitan areas in the South and West as early as August 2020, with the sharpest increases occurring during the surge of the highly contagious Delta variant in the spring and summer of 2021.

The study identifies a total of 1,179,024 excess deaths from March 2020 through February 2022, including an estimated 634,830 excess deaths from March 2020 to February 2021, and 544,194 estimated excess deaths from March 2021 to February 2022."

 

[dhanson865]

Taking higher-than-recommended doses of vitamin D for five years reduced the risk of atrial fibrillation

Taking higher-than-recommended doses of vitamin D for five years reduced the risk of atrial fibrillation in older men and women, according to a new study from the University of Eastern Finland.

www.uef.fi

and in discussion of it this older article came up.

The Big Vitamin D Mistake

Since 2006, type 1 diabetes in Finland has plateaued and then decreased after the authorities’ decision to fortify dietary milk products with cholecalciferol. The role of vitamin D in innate and adaptive immunity is critical. A statistical error ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Since 2006, type 1 diabetes in Finland has plateaued and then decreased after the authorities’ decision to fortify dietary milk products with cholecalciferol. The role of vitamin D in innate and adaptive immunity is critical. A statistical error in the estimation of the recommended dietary allowance (RDA) for vitamin D was recently discovered; in a correct analysis of the data used by the Institute of Medicine, it was found that 8895 IU/d was needed for 97.5% of individuals to achieve values ≥50 nmol/L. Another study confirmed that 6201 IU/d was needed to achieve 75 nmol/L and 9122 IU/d was needed to reach 100 nmol/L. The largest meta-analysis ever conducted of studies published between 1966 and 2013 showed that 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels <75 nmol/L may be too low for safety and associated with higher all-cause mortality, demolishing the previously presumed U-shape curve of mortality associated with vitamin D levels. Since all-disease mortality is reduced to 1.0 with serum vitamin D levels ≥100 nmol/L, we call public health authorities to consider designating as the RDA at least three-fourths of the levels proposed by the Endocrine Society Expert Committee as safe upper tolerable daily intake doses. This could lead to a recommendation of 1000 IU for children <1 year on enriched formula and 1500 IU for breastfed children older than 6 months, 3000 IU for children >1 year of age, and around 8000 IU for young adults and thereafter. Actions are urgently needed to protect the global population from vitamin D deficiency.

 

[madodel]

Taking higher-than-recommended doses of vitamin D for five years reduced the risk of atrial fibrillation

Taking higher-than-recommended doses of vitamin D for five years reduced the risk of atrial fibrillation in older men and women, according to a new study from the University of Eastern Finland.

www.uef.fi

and in discussion of it this older article came up.

The Big Vitamin D Mistake

Since 2006, type 1 diabetes in Finland has plateaued and then decreased after the authorities’ decision to fortify dietary milk products with cholecalciferol. The role of vitamin D in innate and adaptive immunity is critical. A statistical error ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

My wife always tells her patients to take additional Vit D3 supplements. She told me that it helps with the immune system but never mentioned to me the aFib benefit. I'll ask her about that.

 

[DrGriz]

I think it's worth mentioning that nobody in the US outside of Alaska lives as far north as everybody in Finland, where those studies were done. And that has everything to do with vitamin d levels.

 

[dhanson865]

I think it's worth mentioning that nobody in the US outside of Alaska lives as far north as everybody in Finland, where those studies were done. And that has everything to do with vitamin d levels.

I mow my yard maybe 5 days a year where I get any sun to speak of. I might be outside and get some sun for some other reason 1 or 2 days a year.

So for ~97% of the days I'm indoors with zero sun exposure. Doesn't matter how for north I live.

Ask your average Arizona, Texas, or Florida office worker or retiree how much sun they expose themselves to when its triple digits heat or 100% humidity.

I'm saying the majority of the US population has to treat itself the same as the Finnish when it comes to Vit D supplementation.

 

[DrGriz]

I mow my yard maybe 5 days a year where I get any sun to speak of. I might be outside and get some sun for some other reason 1 or 2 days a year.

So for 98% of the days I'm indoors with zero sun exposure. Doesn't matter how for north I live.

I am sorry for you, then!
You as an individual may very well benefit from vitamin D supplementation.

Yes, I have had patients who are like you and they have seriously low vitamin D levels. I have had to use crazy amounts of Vitamin D supplements to get their levels into the normal range.

And absolutely vitamin D is involved in more than bone health. The question is a population based one. Who should be supplemented? Everyone? or just those who are found to have low levels. And what should be the target.

The incidence of vitamin D deficiency is likely to be higher in Finland than many other places due to latitude alone. Also, from what I read, they talked about fortifying milk with vitamin D as if it were something new. We've done that for a long time here.

Anyway, from the perspective of a population and how to address low levels, it's different in Finland than in the continental US. That's my point.

 

[jerry33]

I am sorry for you, then!
You as an individual may very well benefit from vitamin D supplementation.

I take Vitamin D supplements because tests showed I was low a couple of years ago. Levels okay now. Even if you live in a sunny climate, going outside during the day means either putting on tons of sticky sunscreen and long sleeve shirts (not comfortable in 35-45 C weather) or having a high risk of skin cancer. So I do the yard work just after Civil Dawn and finish as soon as the sun can be seen. Indoors as much of the rest of the day as possible.

 

[dhanson865]

And absolutely vitamin D is involved in more than bone health. The question is a population based one. Who should be supplemented? Everyone? or just those who are found to have low levels. And what should be the target.

The incidence of vitamin D deficiency is likely to be higher in Finland than many other places due to latitude alone. Also, from what I read, they talked about fortifying milk with vitamin D as if it were something new. We've done that for a long time here.

Anyway, from the perspective of a population and how to address low levels, it's different in Finland than in the continental US. That's my point.

Ask your average Arizona, Texas, or Florida office worker or retiree how much sun they expose themselves to when its triple digits heat or 100% humidity.

I'm saying the majority of the US population has to treat itself the same as the Finnish when it comes to Vit D supplementation.

Any difference in how far north they are is offset by our higher average body weight.

And for the darker skinned among us (of which the US has 20x higher percentage vs the Finnish), you are likely have to supplement even more.

 

[DrGriz]

Ask your average Arizona, Texas, or Florida office worker or retiree how much sun they expose themselves to when its triple digits heat or 100% humidity.

I'm saying the majority of the US population has to treat itself the same as the Finnish when it comes to Vit D supplementation.

Any difference in how far north they are is offset by our higher average body weight.

And for the darker skinned among us (of which the US has 20x higher percentage vs the Finnish), you are likely have to supplement even more.

Ok. I'd be very interested in your evidence. From what I have been able to glean from the literature, there's little evidence that in our population, vitamin D supplements don't effectively treat any condition except rickets and osteoporosis. And exposure of a 4x4 inch patch of skin to the proper wavelengths of sunlight a day is enough.

I'd be happy to know with confidence that that is wrong.

 

[dhanson865]

Ok. I'd be very interested in your evidence. From what I have been able to glean from the literature, there's little evidence that in our population, vitamin D supplements don't effectively treat any condition except rickets and osteoporosis. And exposure of a 4x4 inch patch of skin to the proper wavelengths of sunlight a day is enough.

I'd be happy to know with confidence that that is wrong.

The largest meta-analysis ever conducted of studies published between 1966 and 2013 showed that 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels <75 nmol/L may be too low for safety and associated with higher all-cause mortality, demolishing the previously presumed U-shape curve of mortality associated with vitamin D levels. Since all-disease mortality is reduced to 1.0 with serum vitamin D levels ≥100 nmol/L, we call public health authorities to consider designating as the RDA at least three-fourths of the levels proposed by the Endocrine Society Expert Committee as safe upper tolerable daily intake doses. This could lead to a recommendation of 1000 IU for children <1 year on enriched formula and 1500 IU for breastfed children older than 6 months, 3000 IU for children >1 year of age, and around 8000 IU for young adults and thereafter. Actions are urgently needed to protect the global population from vitamin D deficiency.

Last I heard mortality isn't a type of rickets or osteoporosis. Do I need to link to 30469 or would you be willing to scroll up the page?

 

[DrGriz]

The largest meta-analysis ever conducted of studies published between 1966 and 2013 showed that 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels <75 nmol/L may be too low for safety and associated with higher all-cause mortality, demolishing the previously presumed U-shape curve of mortality associated with vitamin D levels. Since all-disease mortality is reduced to 1.0 with serum vitamin D levels ≥100 nmol/L, we call public health authorities to consider designating as the RDA at least three-fourths of the levels proposed by the Endocrine Society Expert Committee as safe upper tolerable daily intake doses. This could lead to a recommendation of 1000 IU for children <1 year on enriched formula and 1500 IU for breastfed children older than 6 months, 3000 IU for children >1 year of age, and around 8000 IU for young adults and thereafter. Actions are urgently needed to protect the global population from vitamin D deficiency.

Last I heard mortality isn't a type of rickets or osteoporosis. Do I need to link to 30469 or would you be willing to scroll up the page?

Excuse me, but I did read that. The information in those pieces is generated entirely from studies done in Finland, and the first article about atrial fibrillation looked only at people over 65.

They extrapolate that information to recommend vitamin D supplementation to everyone of every age in every part of the world. If that one size fits all solution to a problem doesn't raise a red flag in your mind, it should! There are 8 million of us on this planet. O how did we ever survive without taking vitamin D supplements over the last several million years?

Again, I was asking for information that applied to the vast portion of the world that doesn't live in Finland.

Vitamin D conversion in the skin occurs when it is exposed to certain wavelengths of UV radiation. When the sun is low in the sky, those wavelengths reflect off of our atmosphere like a mirror. As the sun gets higher, more of the vit D rays get through to the surface. Latitude determines how many if any months you can't produce vit D.

I have personally done an experiment over the last 35 years. I ski a lot, mostly in the winter. In January, I can ski all day and not worry about a sunburn, nor do I tan. By March, I need sunscreen. Happens like clockwork.

Don't just take my word for it. The good folks at Harvard have noticed this effect as well.

Time for more vitamin D - Harvard Health

Vitamin D has been linked to a growing list of health benefits beyond bone strengthening, but many people, particularly seniors, have vitamin D deficiency. Because few foods are rich in the vitamin...

www.health.harvard.edu

Most people in the world do not live north or south of 37 degrees latitude.

So again. Bring me the information that shows that those conclusions apply worldwide. Or explain to me why you think extrapolation to everyone is warranted by the articles you referenced.

 

[dhanson865]

Excuse me, but I did read that. The information in those pieces is generated entirely from studies done in Finland, and the first article about atrial fibrillation looked only at people over 65.

Was it all from Finland, or was it just published there.

Here is a similar study not from Finland

Meta-analysis of All-Cause Mortality According to Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D

We examined the relationship between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) and all-cause mortality. We searched biomedical databases for articles that assessed 2 or more categories of 25(OH)D from January 1, 1966, to January 15, 2013. We identified 32 studies ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

They extrapolate that information to recommend vitamin D supplementation to everyone of every age in every part of the world. If that one size fits all solution to a problem doesn't raise a red flag in your mind, it should! There are 8 million of us on this planet. O how did we ever survive without taking vitamin D supplements over the last several million years?

As if office buildings and 3 piece suits or even nudity laws were common millions of years ago.


I can't read this one as I don't have a membership and it's paywalled but

Vitamin D Deficiency Linked to Death, New Study Finds

A genetic approach provides support for the effects of vitamin D on mortality. The benefits of Vitamin D supplementation are largely found in those with deficiency, researchers find.

www.medscape.com

and there is

https://ar.iiarjournals.org/content/anticanres/36/3/1379.full.pdf

and on and on and on.

 

[DrGriz]

Was it all from Finland, or was it just published there.

Here is a similar study not from Finland

Meta-analysis of All-Cause Mortality According to Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D

We examined the relationship between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) and all-cause mortality. We searched biomedical databases for articles that assessed 2 or more categories of 25(OH)D from January 1, 1966, to January 15, 2013. We identified 32 studies ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

As if office buildings and 3 piece suits or even nudity laws were common millions of years ago.


I can't read this one as I don't have a membership and it's paywalled but

Vitamin D Deficiency Linked to Death, New Study Finds

A genetic approach provides support for the effects of vitamin D on mortality. The benefits of Vitamin D supplementation are largely found in those with deficiency, researchers find.

www.medscape.com

and there is

https://ar.iiarjournals.org/content/anticanres/36/3/1379.full.pdf

and on and on and on.

Please. I never said that there are no individuals and groups who would benefit from vitamin D supplementation. But your "Big Mistake" article states:

Actions are urgently needed to protect the global population from vitamin D deficiency.

I absolutely think that people with low levels ought to be treated. You are now dissembling by bringing up potential benefits in subpopulations and groups as well as individuals. And, there are different recommendations for different target levels in different populations in different parts of the world. But I haven't yet seen evidence that this is a global issue. I believe it is an issue for individuals and we should have the tools to figure that out. The rest of us should not have to take little pills made who knows where and should try to get our vitamin d as naturally as possible.

Your same article says this:

these recommended doses can be individualized based on dietary and sun exposure habits and the latitude of the country, and they can also be adjusted according to body mass index, age, and skin color, with obese, elderly, and dark-skinned people needing higher doses.

and it also says this:

taken as a supplement all year long except for circumstances such as vacations in which one engages in sunbathing.

So, after recommending high levels of RDA, they then backpedal and give exceptions for vacations in parts of the world where, well, it may not be an emergency.