Coronavirus

[scottf200]

That study terrifies me, as an endocrinologist. Type 1 DM is something we haven't made much "curative" progress on in the past 40 years. Plenty of perpetual treatment progress, but not much curative. Anything that increases the incidence is disturbing.

100%. Have family with T1D for ~20 years and the only thing that has changed recently is expensive sensors as part of the feedback loop to the pump. It has only been recently that medronics latest versions don't require frequent calibrations multiple times a day. Heard about curative stuff for a couple decades but little wide spread results.

 

[DrGriz]

The likelihood of the omicron style covid strains to end up into death or hospital or ED is so low that I don't quite understand the added benefit of "vaccines more effective than natural immunity to protect against death, hospitalizations and ED visits". Is it possible that the benefit is gained primarily from risk groups which were not elaborated in the study?

I will quote this sentence from the report.

Data on pairs of vaccine recipients and individuals with prior infections, aged between 12 and 110 years, matched on age, sex, CDC-defined COVID risk scores and dates of initial exposure

They matched cases based on known risk factors. What you are now proposing is that the difference is based on unknown risk factors not being taken into account. Of course, such things exist, but since you don't know that you have or don't have such unknown risk factors the odds are you are better off vaccinating.

I realize you are digging hard for an excuse not to vaccinate. It's emotional, and we all can get illogical when we are thinking with our gut. It's human. But you are playing the odds and in the long run vaccination is the better play. You are just hoping to be lucky.

And consider this: vaccination also reduces the risk for long Covid, as we define it now, and there are only more forms of long Covid to come as we understand the issue of autoantibodies. At least 13.3% of people infected get long covid as we understand it, I have seen patients with very debilitating long Covid and they did not have major risk factors or severe disease. They were just normal people who got covid without being vaccinated, never went to the hospital and never needed any sort of treatment.

Long covid reduced by vaccine

 

[Tiger]

I realize you are digging hard for an excuse not to vaccinate. It's emotional, and we all can get illogical when we are thinking with our gut. It's human. But you are playing the odds and in the long run vaccination is the better play. You are just hoping to be lucky.

I may have misrepresented myself. I am digging hard for an excuse to continue vaccinating if it can keep me and people I am contact with safer. There is just seems to be less and less hard or anecdotal evidence to support it.

And consider this: vaccination also reduces the risk for long Covid, as we define it now, and there are only more forms of long Covid to come as we understand the issue of autoantibodies. At least 13.3% of people infected get long covid as we understand it, I have seen patients with very debilitating long Covid and they did not have major risk factors or severe disease. They were just normal people who got covid without being vaccinated, never went to the hospital and never needed any sort of treatment.

I have some autoimmune issues already so I know it is not a nice territory. Luckily I did not get long covid from previous exposures (knock knock knock on wood). I'm curious if it can turn out different every time?

 

[DrGriz]

I may have misrepresented myself. I am digging hard for an excuse to continue vaccinating if it can keep me and people I am contact with safer. There is just seems to be less and less hard or anecdotal evidence to support it.


I have some autoimmune issues already so I know it is not a nice territory. Luckily I did not get long covid from previous exposures (knock knock knock on wood). I'm curious if it can turn out different every time?

I think the best evidence, and I presented plenty from the era of Omicron, clearly does support it. I'm not sure what you aren't seeing.


If you only look at infection rates, and ignore consequences, it may seem harder to justify. But it's the consequences that I worry about.

We recommend a new flu vaccine every year and have for decades. There's never been any big anxiety over that, even though some years the vaccine doesn't keep up with the mutations. But we don't quit vaccinating every year.

Yes, past evidence doesn't guarantee future results. But until we see clear evidence that vaccination doesn't prevent consequences, the odds favor continued vaccination.

You initiated this current conversation with a link to YouTube nutbag John Campbell. He's been called out repeatedly. You need better sources of information for your decision-making.

 

[Tiger]

I think the best evidence, and I presented plenty from the era of Omicron, clearly does support it. I'm not sure what you aren't seeing.

Can you show me a graph or something, for dummies, Omicron era?

 

[NikolaACDC]

DeSantis backs Florida surgeon general in urging residents against new Covid vaccines

"DeSantis backs Florida surgeon general in urging residents against new Covid vaccines
...
Dr Joseph Ladapo, the governor’s hand-picked surgeon general and a vaccine skeptic previously found to have manipulated data on vaccine safety, falsely claimed the new booster shots had not been tested on humans, and contained “red flags”."
__________________

I'm sure the smart people of Florida will be able to do their own research and come to the decision that's best for their health.
...

 

[DrGriz]

Can you show me a graph or something, for dummies, Omicron era?

The magnitude and durability of protection was particularly high for those with hybrid immunity compared to those with previous infection alone, reinforcing the importance of vaccination despite previous infection in protecting against severe disease due to the omicron variant.

Protective effectiveness of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and hybrid immunity against the omicron variant and severe disease: a systematic review and meta-regression

The benefit of vaccination after previous SARS-CoV-2 infection in the omicron era

 

[Tiger]

View attachment 972415


Protective effectiveness of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and hybrid immunity against the omicron variant and severe disease: a systematic review and meta-regression

The benefit of vaccination after previous SARS-CoV-2 infection in the omicron era

Do I read it correctly that infection plus only one shot gives the best protection "gold standard", and infection plus two shots (first shot plus booster) gives the second best protection? I have infection(s) plus two shots, and I try to keep myself regularly infected at low probability of hospitalization (according to this chart). So I am not too far off the mark?

 

[Dave EV]

Do I read it correctly that infection plus only one shot gives the best protection "gold standard", and infection plus two shots (first shot plus booster) gives the second best protection? I have infection(s) plus two shots, and I try to keep myself regularly infected at low probability of hospitalization (according to this chart). So I am not too far off the mark?

The more you get infected, the better your immunity. So you should just go and get infected a bunch of times to prevent yourself from getting sick. /s

 

[DrGriz]

Do I read it correctly that infection plus only one shot gives the best protection "gold standard", and infection plus two shots (first shot plus booster) gives the second best protection? I have infection(s) plus two shots, and I try to keep myself regularly infected at low probability of hospitalization (according to this chart). So I am not too far off the mark?

Infection plus one or two vaccinations (confidence limits/shaded areas overlap, so they are effectively the same) give better protection at 4-6 months and on than either infection alone or primary alone for severe disease and hospitalization.

1 or 2 vaccinations with infection and infection alone were better than vaccination alone against all infection.

Again, what they did not measure in this study is long covid. The risk of that is much more significant than death or severe disease.

Vaccination can never (by it's simple definition) give you long covid. But it can probably lower your risk of long covid significantly, especially if you are vaccinated prior to first infection.

Protective effectiveness

Vaccine Post Covid

 

[Tiger]

Again, what they did not measure in this study is long covid. The risk of that is much more significant than death or severe disease.

Is there any similar for dummies graphs or research about this, or it is some how neglected? The topic of long covid itself seems bit hot due to the related liabilities (mainly insurance etc.).

Vaccination can never (by it's simple definition) give you long covid. But it can probably lower your risk of long covid significantly, especially if you are vaccinated prior to first infection.

Protective effectiveness

Vaccine Post Covid

At least it is rare:

https://www.science.org/content/article/rare-link-between-coronavirus-vaccines-and-long-covid-illness-starts-gain-acceptance

 

[Tiger]

The more you get infected, the better your immunity. So you should just go and get infected a bunch of times to prevent yourself from getting sick. /s

Just living the kindergarten "la vida loca" life will do that

 

[DrGriz]

Is there any similar for dummies graphs or research about this, or it is some how neglected? The topic of long covid itself seems bit hot due to the related liabilities (mainly insurance etc.).



At least it is rare:

https://www.science.org/content/article/rare-link-between-coronavirus-vaccines-and-long-covid-illness-starts-gain-acceptance

From the link I shared for you above, there is this table. I am not sure there's better information for Dummies. Dummies are...Dummies. There are many articles discussing the results. So I don't know why you think it's being ignored, except by those with an agenda. For instance, you seem to have ignored the information I linked for you. Try googling "vaccine protection against long covid" and look at this year's information.

From your article re: "long vax"

Although more researchers are now taking Long Vax seriously, regulators in the United States and Europe say they have looked for, but have not found, a connection between COVID-19 vaccines and small fiber neuropathy or POTS. “We can’t rule out rare cases,”

One of the problems in studying this rare phenomenon, I would observe, is that up to 50% of people (in other studies) had asymptomatic Omicron covid infections and were only shown (to their surprise) to have had it through antibody studies, which can distinguish natural from vaccine immune response.
Give enough people vaccinations and some small number will be exposed in the days and weeks immediately following vaccination. How would you then distinguish which is the cause? I haven't seen anything that souses that out.

Not saying that the small fiber neuropathy doesn't happen post vaccine, but if it does, its really rare. Focusing on that rather than the bigger risk is digging pretty hard.

 

[Tiger]

From the link I shared for you above, there is this table. I am not sure there's better information for Dummies. Dummies are...Dummies. There are many articles discussing the results. So I don't know why you think it's being ignored, except by those with an agenda. For instance, you seem to have ignored the information I linked for you. Try googling "vaccine protection against long covid" and look at this year's information.

Thanks, I'm not well versed in this so that's why I asked, instead of roaming around the internet doing some hallucination of my own Not sure I understand how that table explains how much vaccination improves long covid relative to previous infections, whether I can divide those effectiveness numers with each other to get the gain? Does the After row mean it improves the outcome getting vaccine after being infected?

From your article re: "long vax"

One of the problems in studying this rare phenomenon, I would observe, is that up to 50% of people (in other studies) had asymptomatic Omicron covid infections and were only shown (to their surprise) to have had it through antibody studies, which can distinguish natural from vaccine immune response.
Give enough people vaccinations and some small number will be exposed in the days and weeks immediately following vaccination. How would you then distinguish which is the cause? I haven't seen anything that souses that out.

Not saying that the small fiber neuropathy doesn't happen post vaccine, but if it does, its really rare. Focusing on that rather than the bigger risk is digging pretty hard.

Sure, it's quite nitty gritty and low returns to research this, would need a military level setup to map it out properly.

 

[DrGriz]

Thanks, I'm not well versed in this so that's why I asked, instead of roaming around the internet doing some hallucination of my own Not sure I understand how that table explains how much vaccination improves long covid relative to previous infections, whether I can divide those effectiveness numers with each other to get the gain? Does the After row mean it improves the outcome getting vaccine after being infected?



Sure, it's quite nitty gritty and low returns to research this, would need a military level setup to map it out properly.

In the last column the table measures "vaccine effectiveness" which is defined elsewhere as reducing long covid conditions/symptoms.
The first line is the results of studies looking at vaccination both before and after infection.
The next row shows effectiveness of vaccination before first infection, around 35% effective.
The last row shows effectiveness of vaccination after a previous infection, around 27% effective.

So it's better to be vaccinated prior to being infected, but still significantly effective if not.

The study is a meta-analysis, and I wouldn't rely on those numbers to be precise in any given patient, but the trend is pretty clear, at least in the studies this study pooled. Fewer post covid conditions and symptoms following vaccination.

 

[Tiger]

In the last column the table measures "vaccine effectiveness" which is defined elsewhere as reducing long covid conditions/symptoms.
The first line is the results of studies looking at vaccination both before and after infection.
The next row shows effectiveness of vaccination before first infection, around 35% effective.
The last row shows effectiveness of vaccination after a previous infection, around 27% effective.

Thanks. Which of these rows can give us some indication of how much % gain is obtained if someone has previous infection (less than 6 months) and long past first two vaccinations, but without having a booster within last 6 months vs. having had also a booster within last 6 months?

 

[madodel]

Interesting discussion about barriers to Flu vaccinations around racial/ethnicity groups, including a discussion of misinformation about vaccines.

Equity in Flu Vaccine Rates: Bridging Racial & Ethnic Gaps

 

[madodel]

The new normal.

Amid another rise in cases, Covid’s new normal has set in

Covid is now like influenza, RSV, rhinoviruses, and a large number of other pathogens that will at some point or points in a year increase in transmission activity and then decline, ceding the stage to something else that can make people cough, sneeze, run a fever, feel lousy, and sometimes require medical care and can on occasion lead to death. To be sure, Covid currently is the worst member of that gang, still killing more people a year than influenza, which previously wore the worst actor badge.

But when we’re looking at Covid, it’s important to remember that we are in a markedly different phase in our experience with SARS-2 than we were even a year ago, experts insist. Yes, the number of new hospital admissions is rising, and the number of deaths may follow. But they are far below the figures of previous years. In the last week of August 2021, there were nearly 86,000 new hospital admissions. Last year at the same time, the number was 37,000. This year it was 17,400.

 

[DrGriz]

Thanks. Which of these rows can give us some indication of how much % gain is obtained if someone has previous infection (less than 6 months) and long past first two vaccinations, but without having a booster within last 6 months vs. having had also a booster within last 6 months?

Since this situation hasn't happened to anyone, including you, until now, there are no rows/studies looking at that scenario. Maybe ask that question in a year or two when it has happened and the protective effect in your setting can be measured, studied and published.

Since we do know the protective effect of both vaccines and infection wane over time, the third line is probably the best guide. Boosting now would likely provide improved protection from long covid due to a new infection you might get over the next 6 months.

Again, your specific scenario can't have been looked at, yet. It's too early. So I am not sure why you would think that information is available.

 

[DrGriz]

The new normal.

Amid another rise in cases, Covid’s new normal has set in

As far as I can see, that article completely ignores long covid, which is not what we see with the other viral illnesses. I'm not sure why.
Long Covid, as currently defined and understood, affects roughly 15% of everyone who has had Covid, depending on the study. Some studies suggest higher, and it depends on the subgroups. It's not simple to diagnose. But we don't see anything like that with colds and the flu.

Long COVID - Household Pulse Survey - COVID-19

As part of an ongoing partnership with the Census Bureau, the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) recently added questions to assess the prevalence of post-COVID-19 conditions (long COVID), on the experimental Household Pulse Survey. This 20-minute online survey was designed to...

www.cdc.gov