Cost of Tesla Solar Roof Tiles

[techmaven]

There is asphalt shingles, and then there's asphalt dimensional shingles. In my neighborhood, only dimensional shingles are allowed.

The price quotes I had in my area for Certainteed Grand Manor were $485/square, and for GAF Camelot II were $371/square two years ago. Both of these quotes had some upgraded warranty coverage. GAF does have a more expensive, slightly cheaper than Grand Manor product too. That's the all in price... removal of the old (imitation slate) roof, ice and water shield, felt paper, new flashings where applicable, etc.

These are both limited lifetime products, but you have to read the warranty terms. Non-prorated coverage is for 50 years on the GAF for instance with the upgraded warranty, 10 years if not.

Imitation slate products, like the Certainteed Symphony product was about 40% more than the Grand Manor product if I remember correctly.

Clearly, the initial solar roof products would target the expensive side of things. From Angie's list:

One of the big things that I was worried about with roof top solar was putting penetrations through the very expensive roof I just put up. The roofing companies already try to get out of their warranty obligations, and the finger pointing that would result with the solar company and the roofing company and their products would be a mess if it came to it. A solar roof from one company with one installation company puts that worry to rest.

 

[trils0n]

4. Automotive glass is like $166 per square if you get it outsourced. And these are much smaller (cheaper mass produce) and seem to be produced in house.

How'd you get this number for $166/square for auto glass? Auto glass is typically more expensive than other glass correct? With its odd, curved shapes, etc. Would probably be cheaper to make smaller, simpler pieces like these roofing tiles.

What is the cost per square of other roofing materials? (And does anyone know if this material cost calculator is accurate?)
Asphalt/composite was around 80/square in materials last I remember looking, seems to be similar to calculator.
Slate can easily be up to 600/square in materials, same with the clay tiles, IIRC.

So given all this:
Even if Tesla's glass tiles cost $200/square, to include other stuff like the plastic film, it seems like they could have a competitive roofing product even without the solar, given the long life of glass, excellent aesthetics, and the high cost of comparable high-end roofs (if installation costs are similar, which I don't see why they wouldn't be). Am I way off base here?

 

[techmaven]

I've been looking at solar glass costs... I saw an old reference to $4.60/meter^2 and I'm looking for a newer number. One square is 9.29 meters^2, so that's $43 of solar glass per square. That doesn't seem all too expensive. Even at $6/meter^2, that's $56/square.

IHS: Solar glass prices set to rebound following EU-China dispute

The question is whether or not Solarcity is looking to make their own glass on-site using that cheap hydro power. (less than 2 cents/kWh). That would help a lot on production costs as energy input is something like 35-40% of the cost. And help in the overall carbon footprint.

So to use solar glass instead of shingles, looking at the lowest cost name brand asphalt shingles look like that retail for $65/square. Assume the material cost is 1/3 of that, so around $20/square. I don't think solar shingles can compare against that. Dimensional shingles are likely $50-60/square, so solar shingles likely can get close to competing against that, but probably not at first. Depends on the price of glass.

Solar glass versus synthetic slate, real slate, tile, metal, terra cotta, and so forth probably is a win.

So this is looking at the cost of putting the non-solar cell glass tiles on the roof.

 

[brucet999]

4. Automotive glass is like $166 per square if you get it outsourced. And these are much smaller (cheaper mass produce) and seem to be produced in house.

I didn't read this at first. Who does roofs made of automotive glass?
Or were you referring to per square foot price of auto glass? You do know that in roofing a square = 100 square feet?

 

[Cattledog]

I didn't read this at first. Who does roofs made of automotive glass?
Or were you referring to per square foot price of auto glass? You do know that in roofing a square = 100 square feet?

Not common, but possible! This is a project by the Rural Studio at Auburn University. Auto windshields. Cool architecture program.

http://www.ruralstudio.org/project-images/glass-chapel/2000_Glass-Chapel_73726p.jpg

 

[trils0n]

Who does roofs made of automotive glass?

On the SolarCity merger call Elon mentioned the glass in the roofs was related to the Tesla Glass program and that the first application of the glass was Model 3. So apparently Tesla planes to make roofs out of some kinda glass related to auto glass.

 

[SageBrush]

No doubt. To use an analogy -- Solar City until now was the Roadster.

Except SolarCity mostly attracted the cash-strapped who were looking for a cheaper monthly utility bill.

I think SC is being upended by EM, and these solar tiles are the Roadster. Not so much because of the tile prices themselves, but the soft costs of integration and installation.

 

[Green Pete]

I didn't read this at first. Who does roofs made of automotive glass?
Or were you referring to per square foot price of auto glass? You do know that in roofing a square = 100 square feet?

Tesla will make roofs out of automotive class. Corning makes windshields for about 20 bucks a piece (avg 12 sq ft per windshield).

 

[FlatSix911]

Consumers reports estimates cost of solar roof.

Here's How Much Tesla's New Solar Roof Could Cost

I don't get how they come up with asphalt shingles costing more than clay tile, though.
Clay tile costs a lot more per square than asphalt and is more labor intensive to install.

Most people will have sticker shock if the CR price model is correct ...

We've run some numbers and determined that a textured glass tile Solar Roof should cost no more than $73,500, installed, to be competitive with an asphalt roof. To get there, we pulled together ballpark pricing for the various roofing materials Tesla’s solar shingles mimic, from sources like the Slate Roofing Contractors Association, the Tile Roofing Institute, and the Remodeling 2016 Cost vs. Value Report.

There are plenty of variables, of course, including the location of the home and shape and height of the roof. (And we’re leaving out any consideration of solar rebates and incentives.) But here’s what the installed costs look like for the roughly 3,000 square feet of roofing needed to cover an average size home in the U.S.

• Clay Tile: $16,000
  
• Asphalt: $20,000
  
• Slate: $45,000

So how could a $73,500 roof be considered cost-competitive with a $20,000 asphalt roof? To compensate for the proposed added value of the “free” electricity from Tesla’s roof, we added in $2,000 a year, over the lifespan of the roof. That’s a typical electric bill in states where solar is big, like California, Texas, and North Carolina. Tesla says the life expectancy of its tiles will be 30 years. So that adds $60,000 to the value of the roof. (Our rough estimate assumes our hypothetical Solar Roof homes generate exactly as much electricity as they use.)

One final factor: the Tesla Solar Roof will work like any rooftop solar system, connecting to your home’s electric panel through an inverter. You could stop there, but the system is being packaged alongside Tesla’s forthcoming Powerwall 2.0, a battery storage device with a built-in inverter and an installed cost of $6,500. Combining Solar Roof and Powerwall 2.0, Musk promises, will power an entire home with 100 percent renewable energy.

The easy way to factor in the cost of a Powerwall to our roofing calculation is to subtract it from the value of the electricity over the life of the roof. So $60,000 worth of electricity becomes $53,500. (Though we should note that the warranty of the Powerwall 2.0 is 10 years, so you would most likely need to replace it more than once over the life of the shingles). So put all that together, and here's how Tesla would need to price its tiles to meet Musk's claims.

• Tuscan Tile (Tesla's equivalant of clay tile) would need to cost less than $69,500, installed (or about $2,300 per 100 square feet), to beat its traditional counterpart;
  
• Smooth and Textured Tile (Tesla's equivalent to asphalt tile) would need to cost less than $73,500, installed (or about $2,450 per 100 square feet);
  
• Slate Tile would need to cost less than $98,500 (or about $3,300 per 100 square feet)

Bottom line: For sure, $70,000 to $100,000 is a lot to spend on a roof. If Tesla's roofing tiles end up priced that high, it will be because consumers will essentially be paying for long-term electricity costs up front, according to Musk’s formula. And even if Solar Roof products cost less than our estimates, it will most certainly be initially aimed at the luxury home market.

 

[KublaConn]

Any question of cost is naturally going to be problematic at this point. Because of the highly varied nature of any actual installation due to roof configuration, house orientation, surrounding foliage, how many solar tiles vs. dummy tiles, etc. the actual cost is going to be wildly different. The only reasonable approach towards determining cost would have to be on a "per unit" basis, and I seriously doubt that they have any kind of idea as to how it is going to cost to manufacture a single solar tile or even the dummy tiles at scale.

When it comes to Elon's statement as to it being comparable to the cost of a normal roof once you factor in energy savings over the life of the roof, to me, it should obvious that he's talking about the install of a comparable roof. Hence, the significance put on the specific different types of tiles that will be available, all of which are higher end roofing materials. For someone to speculate and make comparisons between the cost of an asphault roof and these tiles is a bit out there, isn't it? Yes, I understand that you're comparing to what you CAN get put on your roof, but you're not really comparing apples to apples here, because you're not comparing to what you WILL get with these tiles. There was no, "look at these solar tiles that mimic an asphault roof" in this demonstration, was there? One roof isn't the same as any other roof and to make a fair comparison, you would have to do as the Bloomberg article did and compare to a slate roof, or a Spanish tile roof, etc. Just by virtue of the roofing materials they have chosen to imitate, it is obvious that they realize that their target customer is shopping the higher end market and, as others have noted, the new house market will probably the most successful entry point for one of these roofs. Sure, the "Net Zero house" crowd will love this, but the whole point is to bring the average home buyer into the fold by making it just as pretty and sexy as what they can already purchase, and there ain't nothing pretty or sexy about an asphault roof.

 

[AudubonB]

"Automotive glass" -

I am guilty of having started that rumor, I fear. Perhaps others simultaneously so wrote.

It first seemed to me - first listen - that was what Mr. Musk was saying at the Desperate Housewives reveal, and I so posted on this forum later that Friday night. Upon re-listening, I retract that. He seems to have been comparing the ease of manufacturing auto glass to what it will be like manufacturing these tiles.


SO - UNLESS SOMEONE has hard evidence that it is worth pursuing this idea, I suggest that all might quell their enthusiasm, as I have done, over this.

Cheers, all -

 

[ecarfan]

One roof isn't the same as any other roof and to make a fair comparison, you would have to do as the Bloomberg article did and compare to a slate roof, or a Spanish tile roof, etc. Just by virtue of the roofing materials they have chosen to imitate, it is obvious that they realize that their target customer is shopping the higher end market

Yes for the "Tuscan" and "Slate" solar tile styles, but the "Textured" style appears to me to be intended to look like a wood shake roof which is= not a "higher end" type of roof.

The "Glass" style has no directly comparable traditional roof type. Maybe that is why I prefer it. It doesn't pretend to look like something it is not.

 

[msnow]

Yes for the "Tuscan" and "Slate" solar tile styles, but the "Textured" style appears to me to be intended to look like a wood shake roof which is= not a "higher end" type of roof.

The "Glass" style has no directly comparable traditional roof type. Maybe that is why I prefer it. It doesn't pretend to look like something it is not.

Many of you are deep in the weeds. I think the way to look at this presentation on a Hollywood set (not real houses) is a way to get support and proxy votes for the Tesla acquisition of Solar City. That's why we don't really know how it works or how much it will cost. The "vision" isn't developed enough to provide that level of detail yet. It's an awesome vision but that's all it is at this point.

 

[KublaConn]

Yes for the "Tuscan" and "Slate" solar tile styles, but the "Textured" style appears to me to be intended to look like a wood shake roof which is= not a "higher end" type of roof.

The "Glass" style has no directly comparable traditional roof type. Maybe that is why I prefer it. It doesn't pretend to look like something it is not.

We are talking comparatively here, and yes, compared to asphault shingles, wood shake shingles are a higher end product. I'm no expert on roofing, but with just some quick online research, the average price for typical asphault shingles is $85 to $90 per square foot, while the average price for wood shake is $175-$250 per square foot. If that information is true, would that not show a considerable difference between the two and signify that, discounting personal aesthetics, people who opt for an asphault roof over a wood shake roof are most likely doing so because the wood shake roof is cost prohibitive? Of all the different roofing materials I looked at, asphault was consistently listed as the least durable, with the shortest expected lifespan, so there is likely a "I may not be here in 25 years anyway" attitude at work, as well. This would indicate to me that a bias towards new home construction would be even more likely because most people investing in a house are thinking more long range than those who have already been in their home for a decent amount of time.

As with the Tesla automobiles, with these solar roofing tiles, Elon is further exposing the ugly truth that what is really holding us back is humanity's incessant shallow obsession with appearances and status, with seeming, rather than being, and an overall resistance to change. To me, he deserves accolades for realizing that he can't change these destructive tendencies and, therefore, must find viable work-arounds to mitigate the damages incurred. This, of course, means we end up spending way too much time & effort on trying to make things aesthetically appealing to those who wish everything to stay the same as it always has. The reality is, an asphault roof with solar panels on it is a perfectly workable and viable, as well as, economical solution to the problem and poses no practical or logistical difficulties. The only real complaint that most people have is that it doesn't "look nice".

 

[ecarfan]

Many of you are deep in the weeds. I think the way to look at this presentation on a Hollywood set (not real houses) is a way to get support and proxy votes for the Tesla acquisition of Solar City. That's why we don't really know how it works or how much it will cost. The "vision" isn't developed enough to provide that level of detail yet. It's an awesome vision but that's all it is at this point.

I agree, to a point. Obviously the 4 styles of solar tiles displayed at the event were real tiles. Just as obviously they are not finished products ready to sell today. But I believe Elon when he says they are products that Tesla Energy will offer in the future.

And yes clearly the event was intended to convince opponents of the Tesla plan to acquire SolarCity that in fact it is a good plan.

 

[electracity]

Permanent roofs are done with better flashing. Flashing on asphalt roofs is redone every 20-30 years. Material costs on clay and concrete tile roofs are not so great, but flashing and labor is considerably more expensive.

Ironically a poor prospect for Tesla's new solar roofing are existing upscale house with permanent roofs. Who want to tear off an expensive roof with an indefinite life? So I guess the target market in existing homes are people with asphalt roofs who are willing to spend a lot more money.

Expensive homes designed with these new solar roofs in mind should be an excellent market for Tesla. Solar communities with fancy solar roofs and powerwalls.

 

[msnow]

I agree, to a point. Obviously the 4 styles of solar tiles displayed at the event were real tiles. Just as obviously they are not finished products ready to sell today. But I believe Elon when he says they are products that Tesla Energy will offer in the future.

And yes clearly the event was intended to convince opponents of the Tesla plan to acquire SolarCity that in fact it is a good plan.

Point taken, they were probably real tiles or working prototypes but if the acquisition is voted down, which I guess is a possibility, do you think this moves forward at the same pace?

 

[ecarfan]

Point taken, they were probably real tiles or working prototypes but if the acquisition is voted down, which I guess is a possibility, do you think this moves forward at the same pace?

Perhaps not, but knowing Elon I think he would still want to make those products a reality.

 

[brucet999]

I'm no expert on roofing, but with just some quick online research, the average price for typical asphault shingles is $85 to $90 per square foot, while the average price for wood shake is $175-$250 per square foot.

If you were an expert on roofs, you would have written the costs as per square, which = 100 sq ft as installed.

 

[electracity]

Isn't the energy density of Tuscan Tile a problem on most houses?