Like, what if there are warehouses full of pre-made Model 3s somewhere in California, Nevada, or elsewhere that are ready for delivery to employees/early reservation holders? With everyone expecting/assuming that Tesla will continue to do things the way it always has with its lower volume high-end cars, wouldn't it be a shock if a lot of Model 3s in different limited color/wheel trims were ready to go on the launch day next month?
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SoloRX7
Member
What day is the launch day? A build and hold strategy would play well with the Fed tax credit, allowing max deliveries with full credit in the quarter they hit 200k.
based on Elon's Q&A at the most recent annual shareholder meeting, sometime at the "end of July"
Already a rumor out there that this is what they've done ...
https://model3ownersclub.com/threads/july-surprise.3983/
https://model3ownersclub.com/threads/july-surprise.3983/
I could see them having a few hundred available so that they could be seen in stores around the world right away in July. I doubt they would start delivering hundreds/thousands in July. We do know they ordered enough parts for several hundred RCs. The employee orders come first though so I don't think they'll be filling non-employee orders right away.
BluestarE3
Active Member
If they have hundreds of cars built already, I'd like to see some of those delivered to stores as demo cars much sooner than the "late 2017" date they had temporarily posted via a pop-up on their website (and confirmed via e-mail to those who tried to schedule a Model 3 test drive). If they don't have enough demo cars for all stores at the same time, they can roll them out in the same sequence they plan to deliver the car.
jelloslug
Active Member
With all of the delays and false starts that the Model S and Model X had, I could see Tesla doing this just to prove that they are serious and capable.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Could a significant number of pre-configured, finalized Model 3s already exist...?
Yes.
Now have a discussion on what a "significant number" is.
Yes.
Now have a discussion on what a "significant number" is.
jelloslug
Active Member
Actually, having worked thru several new model starts in an assembly plant, I would be surprised if there are any customer vehicles built already. Tesla has been working thru production trials ("PT"). The first customer vehicle is called "Job 1" - (Ford's claim that "Quality is Job 1" to the contrary). This will be built with some fanfare, and often becomes a museum car where all the team members have signed it (in magic marker, right on the paint). PT vehicles are required to be scrapped both for tax and insurance reasons. (Many having already been consumed by crash testing).
In summary, if Tesla has already built any vehicles destined for sale, it would mean that Job 1 has already occurred and production is in progress. (That doesn't necessarily mean production at the final TAKT time; sometimes a conveyor line is run slowly for a few weeks until all team members are up to speed on all standard procedures). See book "Toyota Production System," Yashiro Monden, 2011.
In summary, if Tesla has already built any vehicles destined for sale, it would mean that Job 1 has already occurred and production is in progress. (That doesn't necessarily mean production at the final TAKT time; sometimes a conveyor line is run slowly for a few weeks until all team members are up to speed on all standard procedures). See book "Toyota Production System," Yashiro Monden, 2011.
WileyTheMan
Peanut Gallery Member
You are probably right in that they haven't built any customer products yet (cool insight into the process, by the way), but they are probably imminent. If they were to start sometime next week, that would give them a good month to crank out as many cars as possible for the final reveal at the end of July.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
They could ship to near the store in containers, and pull them out on announcement day. Just a couple hundred cars would have a big impact.
The question is whether they want to have a big impact. They will sell all they can make for awhile, so what is the point of showing new potential buyers a car they can't buy.
ProphetM
Member
The problem with there being warehouses full of Model 3s already made is that they would need to get from the factory to the warehouses without anyone noticing. That seems unlikely.
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