COVID-19 is obviously having a huge, unprecedented impact on the global economy. While I have bigger concerns like keeping my family and myself safe, I wonder what the impact is on Tesla, specifically on Fremont production? Some people have been saying it's more or less "business as usual" - does anybody know otherwise? Thanks.
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COVID-19 Impact on Tesla production?
- Thread starter HrvatskaEV
- Start date
Tam
Well-Known Member
Fremont depends on many auto parts from China. What happens to China affects Fremont's operation.
Usually, a company would have enough parts in the short term to get by in case something like Covid-19 right now, but the supplies will run out soon if the worker quarantine in China will not be resolved soon.
Of course, it's business as usual as long as there are parts to produce a car. The production line would stop only when the parts run out.
Although the assembly lines are still running today, the stock market usually sees further than today and it worries how long will the current inventories last and it is not hopeful and that reflects on the lower stock price.
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Oh! I think you concern about complying with the principle of social distancing of minimum 6 feet apart from one person to another.
That kind of 6 feet apart is very difficult to maintain in a Bernie Sander's political rally so it and quite a few other events, schools are canceled.
I guess your question is, would Tesla abide by the 6 feet apart guidance in their workplace?
It's quite an engineering specialty and they don't have a medical officer in the Board of Directors so I doubt Tesla would change their routine for now. Especially when it thinks the "panic is dumb".
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whitex
Well-Known Member
I meant both. Of course, the delivery time is a minimal complaint because there are bigger things to think about. But I think that with the (supposed) declining number of active cases in China, the factory issue will be resolved soon. The factory behaviour might not be mandated by Elon but I'm sure they will take precautionary measures anyway. They can't afford to have an internal epidemic nor do they want that for customers.
For the made in China Model 3 ~70% of the parts are currently imported to China. So the majority of the parts aren't coming from China.
Tam
Well-Known Member
Fremont doesn't need to have majority parts from China, 1 single one disrupted from China could cripple its production line:
U.S. rejects Tesla bid for tariff exemption for Autopilot 'brain'
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Tam
Well-Known Member
Count on GM too:
Barra: GM's North American vehicle production safe from coronavirus until late March
"GM Chairman and CEO Mary Barra said Wednesday that the automaker has enough parts to continue production uninterrupted “deep into this month.”
MXLRplus
Active Member
There will only be one roll of toilet paper and one bottle of water included with each car.
whitex
Well-Known Member
Single point of failure, like the MCU. Problem for manufacturing because single sourced, problem for customers because needed for driving, yet only Tesla sells it, so they can charge whatever they want (like they did for refurb MCUs). Traditional automotive company second sources even computers. Most people don't even realize that a small batch of a particular model year may have a different processor/computer from the rest - they do it to throw some business to the second source.
Tam
Well-Known Member
Tam
Well-Known Member
Elon Musk seems to underestimate the potential threat of Covid-19. That might explain why he is not a medical doctor and not a statistician:
Elon Musk Told Workers They're More Likely To Die In A Car Crash Than From Coronavirus
Car crashes have well known stable factors: numbers of car manufactured, numbers of drivers, numbers of miles...
In the past, the U.S. was serious with each new virus found and treated them as unknown threat such as:
MERS that killed 861 globally
SARS that killed 813 globally
The U.S. was the forefront and provided all the states and 100 other countries with the test kits to track the infection rate. The U.S. provided timely guidelines to everyone. The world, at that time, depended on the U.S. for science and medical guidance.
However, with the current trend of the U.S. going alone, and the emphasis on profits:
Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar: "We would want to ensure that we work to make it affordable, but we can't control that price, because we need the private sector to invest... Price controls won't get us there."
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross: "The coronavirus is “another risk factor that people need to take into account,” Ross said. ″I think it will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America,"
In addition, the Whitehouse ordered high-level meetings and discussions on the coronavirus as classified,
So, when Covid-19 finally arrived in the U.S., we were behind in the test kits (easy to perform with a swab to the nose).
The Covid-19 has killed 5,415 globally so far, which is more than the deaths from both MERS and SARS.
Without adequate test kits, without reliable numbers, data, science... the health professionals can't track the virus progression accurately.
The public has looked up to the President for guidance but we got information such as "this is their new hoax",
"The Fake News Media and their partner, the Democrat Party, is doing everything within its semi-considerable power (it used to be greater!) to inflame the CoronaVirus situation, far beyond what the facts would warrant. Surgeon General, “The risk is low to the average American.”...
When lacking adequate test kits and when we don't know who's infected or who is not, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention has a 6 foot Social Distance guidance to assume that everyone who we are in contact with is infected and the closest distance from one person to another should be 6 feet:
The picture below is from San Diego County:
It's difficult to do a 6 foot Social Distancing so it is understandable that many events are being canceled, including schools and churches as well.
It might be true the Covid-19 might turn out to be nothing but because it is a new virus, there's a potential that there are unknown that we haven't discovered just yet.
Its fatality rate might be low for now but how do we know since it has not finished running its course just yet.
Even if its fatality rate is as low as 1918 Spanish flu with a death rate of 2.5% but that's still a lot because there were about 50 to 100 million people died globally at that time.
Tam
Well-Known Member
Elon Musk thinks that the death rate should be much lower due to reporting errors but Iran is an eye opening example for underestimating the Covid-19 that now we can see newly-dug grave trenches about 100 yards total in length from the Satellite image on 2/24/2020:
Sick Politicians and a Lack of Urgency: Tracking Iran’s Response to Coronavirus
Sick Politicians and a Lack of Urgency: Tracking Iran’s Response to Coronavirus
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Trouble is oppressive regimes like China and Iran try and hide things, and Iran is deeply dependant on China. At first in both cases it is likely the lower tier leaders hid this from upper leadership, and all leadership hid as much as possible from the people. Both have been facing serious challenges to their power and want to hide things to avoid further unrest and then will try to use the crisis as a unifying factor once they can't hide anymore. Iran his the arrival of the virus till it was spread far and wide and are underreporting numbers in part because they don't know and only reporting the obvious they can not hide.
Those factors are all in play in China as well and the Diamond Princess is likely a better case study than oppressive regimes with strangle holds on their media. Bother are trying to run cover for their failures by claims it is some severe bioweapon or the like but the cruise ship gives us a better idea how much of the rest of the world will handle it.
I wish I could find this article elsewhere.
https://regenexx.com/blog/coronavirus-myths-debunked/
He is not an epidemiologist but is a medical professional talking about an example with solid data and common sense.
Right now with the media so out to destroy people it is threatening our ability to get straight news. If a government official comes out and says settle down this is comparable to the flu, little threat to most of us, and greater threat to the elderly bit not an unprecedented one. That person's life and career will be destroyed as fast as possible and if it turns out they are 100% correct it won't matter they would have long since been destroyed professionally and forgotten about. So a climate where our officials almost have to overstate the risk has been manufactured.
Those factors are all in play in China as well and the Diamond Princess is likely a better case study than oppressive regimes with strangle holds on their media. Bother are trying to run cover for their failures by claims it is some severe bioweapon or the like but the cruise ship gives us a better idea how much of the rest of the world will handle it.
I wish I could find this article elsewhere.
https://regenexx.com/blog/coronavirus-myths-debunked/
He is not an epidemiologist but is a medical professional talking about an example with solid data and common sense.
Right now with the media so out to destroy people it is threatening our ability to get straight news. If a government official comes out and says settle down this is comparable to the flu, little threat to most of us, and greater threat to the elderly bit not an unprecedented one. That person's life and career will be destroyed as fast as possible and if it turns out they are 100% correct it won't matter they would have long since been destroyed professionally and forgotten about. So a climate where our officials almost have to overstate the risk has been manufactured.
MXLRplus
Active Member
Some doctors are finally coming out publicly to say we are probably overreacting, and that it's more political than medical at this point in the US. Protecting the known at-risk Americans is a better tactic than protecting everyone from what is close to a bad cold or light flu. ie - half measures on 100% of Americans is not as effective as full measures on <16% of Americans (that is the % of >65yo, not 65+sick).
To get back on topic, the Tesla workforce is not compromised of elderly people with lung disease. Nor is their supply chain. 1 out of 5 humans on earth caught the swine flu 10 years ago with no travel restrictions and no economic harm. In fact the global economy did very well in 2009-2010.
To get back on topic, the Tesla workforce is not compromised of elderly people with lung disease. Nor is their supply chain. 1 out of 5 humans on earth caught the swine flu 10 years ago with no travel restrictions and no economic harm. In fact the global economy did very well in 2009-2010.
And perspective on coverage when one President declared an emergency once 1000 Americans had died of a flu the media covered that positively, different President does so at 40dead and we are being told his administration is asleep at the wheel.
I do not say that to criticize the first President for declaring emergency at 1000 dead, as Ken7 pointed out the flu kills tens of thousands of Americans every year. I paid far less attention to current events during the H1N1 outbreak that may have been a reasonable time to see what the impact was.
My point is that guy A declares at 1000dead guy B declares at 40 and the coverage is not fair.
We also have schools closing public gatherings cancelled and if we are going to pretend that is justified how is it we have politicians arguing to let strangers congregate 150+ in an aluminum tube for 6-8 hours to come here and disburse? Schools are closing and Oregon is talking about setting up alternative daycare so the kids are congregated anyway and likely playing in tighter proximity than the arms length in the classroom. My 10yo said it is dumb to open daycares to cover the school closures for this.
I do not say that to criticize the first President for declaring emergency at 1000 dead, as Ken7 pointed out the flu kills tens of thousands of Americans every year. I paid far less attention to current events during the H1N1 outbreak that may have been a reasonable time to see what the impact was.
My point is that guy A declares at 1000dead guy B declares at 40 and the coverage is not fair.
We also have schools closing public gatherings cancelled and if we are going to pretend that is justified how is it we have politicians arguing to let strangers congregate 150+ in an aluminum tube for 6-8 hours to come here and disburse? Schools are closing and Oregon is talking about setting up alternative daycare so the kids are congregated anyway and likely playing in tighter proximity than the arms length in the classroom. My 10yo said it is dumb to open daycares to cover the school closures for this.
MXLRplus
Active Member
I'm certainly not pleased that I'm paying full tuition at two colleges for what is now on-line classes. Argghh... I paid $XXX,XXX to put a kid through a college and now there is no graduation and she's in tears about it. She's worked her azz off for 16 years with a 3.9x UC gpa and will grad as Summa Cum Laude but get her diploma mail-order. There has not been a single case in her area, and it's low population density.
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