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Current time from confirmation to delivery?

Discussion in 'Model X: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by DarrinR, Mar 3, 2016.

  1. DarrinR

    DarrinR Member

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    My MX order was confirmed yesterday. Fully loaded except tow package. 20" silver wheels. Anyone have any idea on estimated time to delivery from this point?
     
  2. bobbykansara

    bobbykansara Member

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    It is COMPLETELY variable. And there are MANY variables. You will not get a simple, solid, consistent answer to your questions since no one knows the answer. Many sig reservation owners are still waiting for their cars. Some production reservations have received cars. Depends on a lot more information than what you have provided so far. Depends on P or not. 90 or 70. premium? black wheels? Etc. All you can do is keep reading the forums and, unfortunately, wait and guess like the rest of us. ;P
     
  3. LeonardD

    LeonardD Member

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    While everything is completely variable, the only real indicator is the VIN, which would normally mean 6-8 weeks. However, having a VIN is no guarantee of a timeline. Once production is fully ramped, it will be much easier to get this info.
     
  4. EboMike

    EboMike Member

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    Not even the VIN is an indicator anymore these days. I think the only reasonable answer here is "there is no way to tell".
     
  5. Darryl

    Darryl ModelXTracker.com Co-Adm

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    There is really no telling. There are people who have got their cars in eight weeks while there are those who got their VINs in December and still don't even have a status. Then there some who have signature VINs and they have been waiting for over four months.
     
  6. MrBoylan

    MrBoylan Member

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    Was it a P or a regular 90D? If P90D, fully loaded, May 15th. If 90D, fully loaded, July 1st.

    Notice I did not specify a year. :)
     
  7. Monkey

    Monkey Member

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    I would be totally eXstatic if my P90D were delivered on or before May 15th. And I've had my VIN for a couple weeks already. I'm betting it delivers in April if they're able to ramp up production like theyr'e saying. If they encounter any more setbacks in terms of supplier or QC issues, then who knows.

    Once Tesla gets production running at optimum capacity and works through their global back-log, I think we can expect order times to go from confirmation to delivery in about 6 weeks. Like it usually works with the S. Until then... All bets are off.

    I'm also thinking that once they get through most of the USA 90Ds, they will push more cars to Canada and Europe and it may actually increase USA wait times a bit. We have also seen this with the S. Demand in China is also going to be an interesting dynamic as well.
     
  8. DarrinR

    DarrinR Member

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    P90 DL metallic silver with white seats, with all the goodies except towing. Yup I was wondering about the year too!
     
  9. Pjjava34

    Pjjava34 Member

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    Not that I'm stalking you @DarrinR, but I was in Newcastle today as I'm shooting an event at the country club this weekend (I was in front of the country club sign taking pics of the entrance) and saw a Silver X re-genning down 155th Ave. I'm seeing X's all over the Seattle area!
     
  10. DarrinR

    DarrinR Member

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    LOL that almost certainly was me! Looks like are new cars are going to have similar color configurations.
     
  11. Darryl

    Darryl ModelXTracker.com Co-Adm

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    @DarrinR

    Welcome to the forum. We need a better inderstanfing of what you ordered. At the bottom of my post you will see the specifics as to what my configuration looks like along with key dates. We need the same information from you. "Fully loaded" is not specific enough. This information will provide the forum members what they need to answer your question.

    Also, there is an application called ModelXTracker.com which is a self reporting tool to help Model X Forum user see what others have ordered and how long it is taking others to get to various stages in the process. Once we get more people to populate and update their information the sooner we can start to be able to generate statistical reports which have meaning. For now less than 150 people who have production cars ordered have received them, therefore Tesla is about two months past what they had projected in December and around 75-100 cars are being produced a week. Hopefully this will pick up to 250 per week real soon and to 500 per week by summer and even more per week by late summer.

    The next step before they can start to produce your car is the assignment of a vehicle identification number or VIN. Every car produced is assigned a VIN by the manufacturer. A VIN is no secret as you can look through the windowshield of any car and see the cars VIN. We ask when Tesla assigns a VIN (the "My Tesla" page will be updated with the VIN ) you provide it on this forum and update the ModelXTracker with the information. To get a car you you have to have a VIN but currently having a VIN doesn't tell you when you are getting your car. In the future, probably 3-4 months from now, cars will be produced in more of a VIN order with variances for batching. At that that point they will have all the kinks worked out the system and once you get a VIN you should get your car within 6-8 weeks depending on where you live. For now there is no relation to getting a VIN and a specific time to delivery. I can tell you the majority of the people (80%) who got their VINs between December 23 and mid-January have yet to get their car.

    Again welcome to the forum and update ModelXTracker.com as soon as you can.
     
  12. av8rbud

    av8rbud Member

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    #12 av8rbud, Mar 6, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2016
    Well organized and informative post Darryl. I look at ModelXTracker.com almost daily. One question that would be good to know is what percentage of X people have used the well designed and useful database? My guesstimate is 5 to 10%. Once we have an adequate sampling it will reveal a lot of potential answers. Hopefully more people will begin to use the Tracker, I see no downside.

    Order Confirmed 1/18/16 | Prod VIN 001309|VIN assigned 2/29/16| P90D | Ludicrous | Titanium | Ultra White | Carbon Fiber | Black Headliner | 22" Onyx Wheels | PUP | Autopilot | 6 seat | High Fi | Sub Zero | 72 Amp Charger | no towing | ie everything but tow kit
     
  13. DarrinR

    DarrinR Member

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    I entered the data for my wife's MX which we received in February.
     
  14. Darryl

    Darryl ModelXTracker.com Co-Adm

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    @av8rbud

    Paul, the developer and active user of this forum, and I were discussing this exact subject on Sunday it looks like there are more than 1700 users of which 800+ users have logged on in the last month. There are users everywhere they sell Tesla's. There are those who just log on and enter there information and only come back when there is a change. Others use the system each day like us. Every time there is a major announcement, like when they issue a lot of VINs or when the Tracker is mentioned in the media. , usage peaks. Paul is working with another volunteer to try to produce additional reports now the number of records is increasing. I just everyone would input their information so we have a better sampling. Once we get through the current push to get cars delivered to California before the end of March and things get backed to normal I think it will be very valuable tool and we can use it to better make projections.
     

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