Cybertruck FS now or wait?

[Knickstape]

Received the Cybertruck FS invite on 6/11/24 with a RN114429XXX. I saw the news last week that they will stop FS next quarter.

Based off of this info do you think I’ll have to wait over a year for non FS Cybertruck? I prefer to save the 20G’s but If I have to wait over a year I rather just pull the trigger now.

Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

 

[Mike_TV]

Received the Cybertruck FS invite on 6/11/24 with a RN114429XXX. I saw the news last week that they will stop FS next quarter.

Based off of this info do you think I’ll have to wait over a year for non FS Cybertruck? I prefer to save the 20G’s but If I have to wait over a year I rather just pull the trigger now.

Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

When did you put your $100 down?

 

[Knickstape]

When did you put your $100 down?

When did you put your $100 down?

I’m an idiot and lost the email. I only have the reservation # and invite to get the FS. If I had to guess I would say in 2021.

 

[Inci Willard]

I received my invite with a RN118008 for CT on 6/21/24, of course I jumped at it! Completed all the requirements now waiting for delivery date. When I ordered my MX, RN number was into 129XXX and I got it on Jan/24 so I don't think RN's follow any order. Owning 2 Teslas plus a long term investor at TSLA may have helped my invitation.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

I received my invite with a RN118008 for CT on 6/21/24, of course I jumped at it! Completed all the requirements now waiting for delivery date. When I ordered my MX, RN number was into 129XXX and I got it on Jan/24 so I don't think RN's follow any order. Owning 2 Teslas plus a long term investor at TSLA may have helped my invitation.

or just wait another year and get a CT with obvious issues being addressed and see how the second gen lightning or the new Rivian look like... I have a hard time seeing the first year of CTs *not* dropping in value like a rock in 2-3 years

 

[Nabush]

Received the Cybertruck FS invite on 6/11/24 with a RN114429XXX. I saw the news last week that they will stop FS next quarter.

Based off of this info do you think I’ll have to wait over a year for non FS Cybertruck? I prefer to save the 20G’s but If I have to wait over a year I rather just pull the trigger now.

Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

Do it if you are okay losing 40K the first year...

 

[Black306]

... I have a hard time seeing the first year of CTs *not* dropping in value like a rock in 2-3 years

I guess it depends what ‘like a rock’ means. IMO, there is nothing in an FS that’ll retain its $20k premium. Plus, CT is not expected to be a super low volume vehicle. When non-FS variants are readily available, FS’ will drop by at least that much. Then add a normal depreciation curve. I wouldn’t be surprised if a DM FS CT is worth less than $60k in 3 years.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

I guess it depends what ‘like a rock’ means. IMO, there is nothing in an FS that’ll retain its $20k premium. Plus, CT is not expected to be a super low volume vehicle. When non-FS variants are readily available, FS’ will drop by at least that much. Then add a normal depreciation curve. I wouldn’t be surprised if a DM FS CT is worth less than $60k in 3 years.

agreed on less than $60k - given that you already can get a fully decked out - under 2yr old - F150 Lightning Platinum with just 10k miles for about that...

 

[ewoodrick]

Received the Cybertruck FS invite on 6/11/24 with a RN114429XXX. I saw the news last week that they will stop FS next quarter.

Based off of this info do you think I’ll have to wait over a year for non FS Cybertruck? I prefer to save the 20G’s but If I have to wait over a year I rather just pull the trigger now.

Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

Probably a year or 2 or 3 or 4......

It all depends on the numbers. Tesla only has the capacity to manufacture up to 125,000 next year. This year, maybe around 50,000.
How many of the reservations in front of you are going to turn to sales and then how many sales in front of you?
And since there were, I think, over 2,000,000 reservations in front of you....

You could get yours somewhere between now and 8 years from now.

And just for reference, it appears that there will only be around 20,000 Foundation Series sold.

No one knows.

 

[Inci Willard]

or just wait another year and get a CT with obvious issues being addressed and see how the second gen lightning or the new Rivian look like... I have a hard time seeing the first year of CTs *not* dropping in value like a rock in 2-3 years

Frankly, I am not interested in Rivian or any other truck except CyberTruck. Also, I don't care about the "value" dropping since cars and stock devaluates or fluctuates all the time, it's not like owning a real estate or a large acreage in the right neighborhood.

 

[tashtibet]

Frankly, I am not interested in Rivian or any other truck except CyberTruck. Also, I don't care about the "value" dropping since cars and stock devaluates or fluctuates all the time, it's not like owning a real estate or a large acreage in the right neighborhood.

exactly, internet is full of people who create doomsday scenario of things they don't like or can't afford. Tesla depreciation is damn slow or appreciate in value: for instance, my 2018 RWD M3 was one of the earliest production and the OTA updates just made the car better & better-meanwhile, my 2017 Chevy Bolt is dead the same. In fact, I have to make appointment to fix seat belt recall, wait for over an hour-while GM service plugged in their laptop etc.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

exactly, internet is full of people who create doomsday scenario of things they don't like or can't afford. Tesla depreciation is damn slow or appreciate in value: for instance, my 2018 RWD M3 was one of the earliest production and the OTA updates just made the car better & better-meanwhile, my 2017 Chevy Bolt is dead the same. In fact, I have to make appointment to fix seat belt recall, wait for over an hour-while GM service plugged in their laptop etc.

lol. care to explain with data points?

My 2019 Model 3 AWD was around $48k new and presently is valued ~$22k after ~5 yrs and 40k miles... hardly darn slow...
and with exception of peak covid - Tesla's have not!!! "appreciated"

 

[Yelobird]

lol. care to explain with data points?

My 2019 Model 3 AWD was around $48k new and presently is valued ~$22k after ~5 yrs and 40k miles... hardly darn slow...
and with exception of peak covid - Tesla's have not!!! "appreciated"

Data points for your doomsday example are rather easy. The industry standard depreciation for a 5 year old car is 60%. For industry not just Tesla. If your pitch is depreciation you might want to consider wine or art. Cars are not collectibles nor investments. Heck, Tesla even provided you a written master business plan detailing the goal to Continuously reduce the cost of cars to consumers. Don’t see many OEM’s sharing that plan.

 

[strider]

exactly, internet is full of people who create doomsday scenario of things they don't like or can't afford. Tesla depreciation is damn slow or appreciate in value: for instance, my 2018 RWD M3 was one of the earliest production and the OTA updates just made the car better & better-meanwhile, my 2017 Chevy Bolt is dead the same. In fact, I have to make appointment to fix seat belt recall, wait for over an hour-while GM service plugged in their laptop etc.

Yeah, I'm sorry but that statement is simply wrong. I paid $130k for my MXP in 2022 and now you can buy a new one for $93k. Guess what that did to my resale? A quick check on tesla.com shows it's worth about $80k now. So $50k in depreciation in 2 years. Depreciation is damn slow or appreciate in value?

Tesla is not shy about dropping prices in order to stimulate demand. If sales slow they will drop prices.

CT prices will stay high for a while as they are production constrained but once production catches up to demand prices will fall and possibly fall rapidly.

 

[dafish]

OP:
Given how I read you, I suppose you might as well buy it now and get it over with.

All:
CT won't depreciate or might appreciate? Hillarious.

I own trucks. I use them as trucks, not soccer mom/dad machines. I own a Tesla. Not as a "look at me" car, but as a solar owner who made an informed financial decision. I have no use for a CT and find them as amusing as I do the Lightening. Mind you I have a reservation on the new Ramcharger so...

I'm far from alone in laughing at the average CT driver, for they are almost never real truck people. What will the market be for those folks? It's already coming apart, for it's both a narrow and short window. It comes down to how much money you want to burn feeding your want. If you can afford the decision might as well pull the trigger.

 

[tashtibet]

ask someone who normally bought over $100,000 ICE luxury car?

 

[Knickstape]

OP:
Given how I read you, I suppose you might as well buy it now and get it over with.

All:
CT won't depreciate or might appreciate? Hillarious.

I own trucks. I use them as trucks, not soccer mom/dad machines. I own a Tesla. Not as a "look at me" car, but as a solar owner who made an informed financial decision. I have no use for a CT and find them as amusing as I do the Lightening. Mind you I have a reservation on the new Ramcharger so...

I'm far from alone in laughing at the average CT driver, for they are almost never real truck people. What will the market be for those folks? It's already coming apart, for it's both a narrow and short window. It comes down to how much money you want to burn feeding your want. If you can afford the decision might as well pull the trigger.

I think another concern I have is buying the truck as a first generation. If I wait for the non FS will there be improvements based of learning from mistakes they made with the FS? It’s a very hard decision.

 

[ewoodrick]

I think another concern I have is buying the truck as a first generation. If I wait for the non FS will there be improvements based of learning from mistakes they made with the FS? It’s a very hard decision.

You know, that has really never happened on a Tesla?

Well, okay, the Roadster and the first Gen Model S and model X. But you can look at the Cybertruck has a 5th generation Tesla vehicle.

The only changes that you can expect to see is to help with production.
Like my early Model 3 and early Model Y, I can't really find any issues that software isn't going to change.

 

[dafish]

Knick, I don't agree with Ewoodrick in this instance. I see constant evolution in the future EV space. In particular battery technology, but let's not forget how massively improved Highland is over the previous model 3. It's pretty impressive, and it's certainly not just software.

One can always wait for the next iteration of something. Indeed doing so is often wise. I have, as an example, a very early a reservation on a Ramcharger. Will I exercise that? Probably not.

OTOH, if it meets your need and you're going to be happy with the cost metrics than screw it, life is short. I simply caution you not to expect great resale value. In fact I'm personally pretty pessimistic about its market viability. Mind you I do things w/my F-150 that CT couldn't so perhaps I'm biased.

 

[Knickstape]

Agreed. The Highland is much nicer. I’ve also considered getting the new M3P for now and maybe trade it in when the Non FS is available.

Cybertruck is my dream vehicle so I am not concerned about resale value but i would hate to get the FS and then the non FS series came out and it was somehow better due to improvements based on feedback/learnings (non software) n then I was stuck wishing I waited. On the other hand I will regret if I don’t pull the trigger now n then they stop making FS series and I have to wait over a year for the Non FS series. The extra 20k I would spend on the FS series would not give me the availability to wrap it right away as well which also plays into my thought process on if I should wait or not.

I appreciate everyone’s feedback. As you can see I am all over the place.