Cybertruck

[Ogre]

Tesla: I'm going to create an aerodynamic and light weight pick-up truck.
Everyone else: Naaaaahhhh! Aerodynamic as a brick and we'll make it super heavy.

Seems like there is still a lot of debate about how heavy and aero the Cybertruck will be.

Keep in mind the Cybertruck is significantly bigger than the Rivian. Even if it is more aero, there might be as much drag due to surface area alone. I’ve also heard some claims that the Rivian will be as aero as the CT. Weight also remains to be seen.

I tend to side with you and suspect it’ll be lighter and slipperier than people expect. That is after all how Tesla shaves down battery sizes.

 

[ohmman]

The 4680 cells are supposed to be a lot more cost effective than the older 2170 cells. On battery day they suggested 54% less expensivel. How much savings they actually get remains to be seen. Recent estimate of battery costs for a Tesla was $168/ kWh. If they cut that in half it would be about $84/ kWh or about $17,000.

These savings on batteries are one of the ways Tesla are going to smash the competition.

While I agree that this is a huge Tesla advantage, cells are only part of a pack, so I’m guessing assembly and other costs may remain stable, diluting the discount from 54% to maybe 30-40%. Don’t know for certain, but surely it can’t translate directly.

 

[Ogre]

While I agree that this is a huge Tesla advantage, cells are only part of a pack, so I’m guessing assembly and other costs may remain stable, diluting the discount from 54% to maybe 30-40%. Don’t know for certain, but surely it can’t translate directly.

If they achieve what they claimed they would on battery day, the results would be quite profound. If they even got 80% of the way to achieving what they wanted with the 4680 platform, it will give Tesla an absolutely massive cost/ design advantage for at least 4-5 years. Looking at the charts they presented that day is a little mind boggling.

The changes to design and cost structure the 4680 cells enable are the heart of the big disconnect between Tesla and the critics who claim the Cybertruck will never ship or will be much more expensive.

Obviously they are ~12-18 months behind schedule on getting the 4680 out the door so it’s really hard to say how close to those goals they are. I suspect we’ll know when the first cars with these cells start shipping. The new Model Ys coming out of Texas will be the first generation on the new platform so we’ll see how close they’ve come when they get it out the door.

 

[Zorg]

The 4680 cells are supposed to be a lot more cost effective than the older 2170 cells. On battery day they suggested 54% less expensivel. How much savings they actually get remains to be seen. Recent estimate of battery costs for a Tesla was $168/ kWh. If they cut that in half it would be about $84/ kWh or about $17,000.

These savings on batteries are one of the ways Tesla are going to smash the competition.

Battery costs have historically decreased in the single digits percentage per year. Nobody's cutting costs in half by next year. I know that Tesla has a 3 year plan to do that but that's Elon time...

 

[Ogre]

Battery costs have historically decreased in the single digits percentage per year. Nobody's cutting costs in half by next year. I know that Tesla has a 3 year plan to do that but that's Elon time...

It’s definitely up in the air how big the savings will be.

I don’t think they can make the Cybertruck if battery costs are still $168/ kWh though.

 

[henderrj]

While I agree that this is a huge Tesla advantage, cells are only part of a pack, so I’m guessing assembly and other costs may remain stable, diluting the discount from 54% to maybe 30-40%. Don’t know for certain, but surely it can’t translate directly.

I think you are probably correct, but I thought I remembered them saying that much of the savings was in the easier construction. Am I imagining that?

 

[Ogre]

Here’s the chart from battery day for reference.

We know they will be able to achieve some of these savings with the 4680 design, the “Cell Vehicle Integration” piece is almost certain. Likely a big chunk of savings from the Cell Factory as well due to the fact that they have managed to figure out dry cell manufacturing. A lot of the rest here is unknown. Also it’s super unclear here how the first 2 charts interact with each other. If they get 54% more range, does that mean they get that much more range per kWh?

As @Zorg suggests, range and cost reductions have been incremental so far. If they pull this out of their hat, they will break our mental model of the industry.

I think a big piece of the savings they unlock in this is how the economics of the Cybertruck works. As I mentioned above, we’ll get a much better idea of how this falls out when they start shipping teh 4680 cells in volume next quarter.

 

[Ogre]

I think you are probably correct, but I thought I remembered them saying that much of the savings was in the easier construction. Am I imagining that?

Part of the savings are “Cell Vehicle Integration”. On an F150, they have a big heavy ladder frame which supports the weight of the truck and carries the batteries as part of that load. On the Cybertruck, the structural battery bears it’s own weight plus acts like part of the truck frame. Pretty big weight reduction.

So some of that cost reduction isn’t actually reducing the cost of the battery itself, but in reducing the total cost of the vehicle.

“Cell Vehicle integration” is listed as part of the range piece as well which I think is meant to reflect weight savings.

These charts are confusing. They are also predictions and clearly whatever ideal case they mapped out didn’t happen so it’s hard to say what the real numbers are.

 

[mbeadnell]

Any research on how the cybertruck will charge?. Can I use a regular wall outlet?. I would not have a far commute so charging speed is not a huge factor.

 

[Ogre]

Any research on how the cybertruck will charge?. Can I use a regular wall outlet?. I would not have a far commute so charging speed is not a huge factor.

I think it’s safe to assume it will be compatible with existing infrastructure and plug in to 110v with a mobile charger.

Charge speed when plugged in to 110v will be around 2 MPH.

 

[BigNerd]

I leased my MY for 3 years this year thinking the CT might be out by 2024.

Given how much MYs are going for... maybe should have bought but no compelling reason without a Fed credit.

If no CT by 2024, I'll probably see where the Lightning is at... but maybe a Canoo may be out by then.

For the money (well... not sure what pricing will be anymore), I still think CT is a better buy over a $40k Lightning (even with a Fed credit).

 

[Ogre]

I leased my MY for 3 years this year thinking the CT might be out by 2024.

Given how much MYs are going for... maybe should have bought but no compelling reason without a Fed credit.

If no CT by 2024, I'll probably see where the Lightning is at... but maybe a Canoo may be out by then.

For the money (well... not sure what pricing will be anymore), I still think CT is a better buy over a $40k Lightning (even with a Fed credit).

IMO leasing a Tesla is a bad bet.

We bought a Model Y for the same reason, but likely will end up keeping it. Too much fun and we need a second vehicle regardless.

 

[dazedNconfuzed]

Any research on how the cybertruck will charge? Can I use a regular wall outlet? I would not have a far commute so charging speed is not a huge factor.

No doubt it will charge using current Tesla charging options, including:
- a wall outlet
- home or business charger
- Tesla Superchargers
- 240v outlets
- public "level 2" charging stations
(up-front and per-charge costs vary).

Using a regular wall outlet will be more "trickle charge", as you'll get only 2-3 miles of charge per hour. Most likely kept in trunk as a backup charger so you know you can get to a faster charger (say, when visiting relatives). You'll certainly want a dedicated charger installed in your driveway/garage, providing ~44 miles of charge per hour.

 

[mark95476]

- self-charge via solar trundle option
- solar panels and battery back-up/inverter

No doubt it will charge using current Tesla charging options, including:
- a wall outlet
- home or business charger
- Tesla Superchargers
- 240v outlets
- public "level 2" charging stations
(up-front and per-charge costs vary).

Using a regular wall outlet will be more "trickle charge", as you'll get only 2-3 miles of charge per hour. Most likely kept in trunk as a backup charger so you know you can get to a faster charger (say, when visiting relatives). You'll certainly want a dedicated charger installed in your driveway/garage, providing ~44 miles of charge per hour.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

No doubt it will charge using current Tesla charging options, including:
- a wall outlet
- home or business charger
- Tesla Superchargers
- 240v outlets
- public "level 2" charging stations
(up-front and per-charge costs vary).

Using a regular wall outlet will be more "trickle charge", as you'll get only 2-3 miles of charge per hour. Most likely kept in trunk as a backup charger so you know you can get to a faster charger (say, when visiting relatives). You'll certainly want a dedicated charger installed in your driveway/garage, providing ~44 miles of charge per hour.

Depends on your situation. I’ve been living with a 20 amp 240 V charging situation for a couple years now. I get about 10 to 12 mph of charge with my model S. It’s more than enough. For the range that the Cybertruck will have I think 2 mph charge rate would actually work for most people. Especially if there’s a nearby Supercharger for rare occasions when that might not be enough. Although it’s more efficient to charge at 240 volts, and if your truck is parked outside in the cold you probably want at least 240 volt 20 amp outlet.

 

[Mr.Chipperson]

Can the CT crouch down with it's air suspension and fit in a garage door that is 6ft tall?

 

[Ogre]

Depends on your situation. I’ve been living with a 20 amp 240 V charging situation for a couple years now. I get about 10 to 12 mph of charge with my model S. It’s more than enough. For the range that the Cybertruck will have I think 2 mph charge rate would actually work for most people. Especially if there’s a nearby Supercharger for rare occasions when that might not be enough. Although it’s more efficient to charge at 240 volts, and if your truck is parked outside in the cold you probably want at least 240 volt 20 amp outlet.

I charge my Model Y on 110v and have for about 8 months now. It’s tolerable but I have a faster 220v charger waiting for when I get the time/ energy to install it.

The big frustration I have is I like to keep it between 50-70% charged most of the time, but when I road trip I’d like to bump it to 90% and it just doesn’t charge fast enough. The other thing is I often do 2 day trips on the weekend and the only way I can get that second day in is by hitting a Supercharger. All of this will be worse with the even slower charging CT.

You can definitely make it work, particularly if a Supercharger isn’t far away.

 

[Ogre]

Can the CT crouch down with it's air suspension and fit in a garage door that is 6ft tall?

Going to have to wait until it’s out to answer this. Seems like it’ll be pretty close one way or the other.

 

[TessP100D]

Depends on your situation. I’ve been living with a 20 amp 240 V charging situation for a couple years now. I get about 10 to 12 mph of charge with my model S. It’s more than enough. For the range that the Cybertruck will have I think 2 mph charge rate would actually work for most people. Especially if there’s a nearby Supercharger for rare occasions when that might not be enough. Although it’s more efficient to charge at 240 volts, and if your truck is parked outside in the cold you probably want at least 240 volt 20 amp outlet.

Yea. no. My MS charges at some thing like 34-40 MPH. 110 volt at 4 MPH is ridiculous slow.
the CT is vaporware. If they do built it and it really does have 500+ range, would will need a Tesla wall charger for any practical use.

 

[qdeathstar]

Yea. no. My MS charges at some thing like 34-40 MPH. 110 volt at 4 MPH is ridiculous slow.
the CT is vaporware. If they do built it and it really does have 500+ range, would will need a Tesla wall charger for any practical use.

Only five you drive 500 miles every day….