FMinMI
Member
I added your name and this link to my Outlook calendar for the bet. Talk to you then
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Dc combo for USA port
- Thread starter Wkwjsrjal22
- Start date
I suspect Tesla may eventually be forced to sell a CCS adapter (especially with chademo being phased out), but I don't see the Tesla connector being phased out unless the connector is no longer capable of meeting power requirements.
FMinMI
Member
In 5 years I will also bet that the current 150kW units will start to become obsolete for the then-produced cars. Waiting 30 minutes for a charge will be unacceptable...
HyperionMark
Member
Nah, lifelong road trip taker here and I find the current charge rates to be very adequate for someone that does any sort of planning. Just eat meals and do bathroom breaks around the charging. A little harder in a COVID world, but that should soon be ending.
150 kW is fine for our efficient sedans but the upcoming wave of 220h kWh pickup trucks from Tesla/GM/Rivian will put more demand on 250+ kW charging for sure.
HyperionMark
Member
FMinMI
Member
Only if you are retired. And even then, still many want to get there and get there now...
FMinMI
Member
I am expecting 500 kW to be announced in the next few years as 10 minute 'fill-ups' will be expected / the norm...
I would not hold your breath for faster charging times. The higher power will undoubtedly come, but only for vehicles with larger batteries, making the charging time invariant. In technical terms, the C-Rate is unlikely to increase significantly.
FMinMI
Member
I disagree. For wider acceptance, faster charging is going to be critical for mass migration. Many ICE users complain about both lack of locations to charge on the road as well as the time to charge. This, along with cost parity with ICE is going to have to happen. Current work on new battery chemistries are focusing on both charge density and speed. If it wasn't important, I doubt there would be so much effort being devoted to / claims made for very quick charging times. Of course, the next issue will be how to get so much power to the batteries once the limitation is resolved...
For road trips, I don't think peak charging rate matters nearly as much as taper and charging location availability. For the daily commute, nothing beats getting home (having skipped the gas station) and plugging in.
FMinMI
Member
To get the charge time down in the 10 minute range, you need an extremely high charge rate over the 10-80 or 90% range. No one is going to ask what is the taper rate - they ask how long to 'fill it up'. In fact, I cannot think of a single time when I talked to an ICE owner that this wasn't the first (or second) question asked (how fast is it, how much does it cost to fill and how much was it are the other typical questions). And even if people only 'travel' infrequently, until that arrives it will be a check on the CON side of their equation to purchase a BEV. Telling them they will charge at home (and not go to a gas station) is pretty low on the PLUS side.
Your signature says you have a S 75D. That car is no longer state of the art and charges much slower than 3 and Y. Personally, I find the Model 3 LR to be perfect for long distance trips with Supercharging. However, it is possible that the 4680 cells will allow a fatter taper curve which will shorten the charging time with the same peak charging rate.
FMinMI
Member
Yeah, I know mine is old but still quite nice to drive. The conversation however was not with my car but EVs in general. When we went to the Poconos last September (from mid Michigan) we ended up taking the Volt instead of the MS. The travel time was 2 hours shorter for the 600+ mile trip. With a new M3 or MY, I am sure it would do better but still too long for my taste. When we go somewhere, we want to get there fast. And that was the point I was making...
Hope you have a nice Thanksgiving.
BEVs will never match ICE cars in that regard, but the battery tech just needs to get to the good enough point, where it doesn't matter. The LR 3 is arguably getting pretty close to that point if you live in a temperate climate. As for frozen s***hole climates (where I live), Tesla may eventually need to make some sort of hybrid module that can be slotted into the frunk to provide supplemental heat and maybe even a token amount of electricity to make up for the cold weather range penalty.
MXLRplus
Active Member
Unless there is a national decree that Demand-Based-Metering will not apply to EV charging, you are not going to like what the EV charging costs are at 250+ kW rates. Expect an 8 stall 400kW charger to cost >$1 per kWh under current CA demand rate tables. That is before taxation. When gas tax income falls, they will apply taxes to electricity used to charge EVs.
Why? Because they can. If CA can make EV charging a cash-cow ready for milking, you better get stocked up on bag-balm. (dairy joke)
So the question will be, can you tolerate 30-50 min breaks every two hours @ 80 mph if it means 75% lower cost per mile?
Why? Because they can. If CA can make EV charging a cash-cow ready for milking, you better get stocked up on bag-balm. (dairy joke)
So the question will be, can you tolerate 30-50 min breaks every two hours @ 80 mph if it means 75% lower cost per mile?
With the expected further Tesla range increases to come (some apparently are coming very quickly, based on the latest reports) together with yet faster charging (I expect that whole new technologies will make it comparable to filling with gas within 5-10 years), this is going to become less and less of an issue, even in cold weather climates I expect in 10 years we will be laughing at the current limitations of electric vehicles - kinda like the way we laugh at VHS video now.
Also, it becomes less of an issue with more home chargers becoming available as more people get electric cars. We visit relatives fairly often out of town (or at least we did before the pandemic). One set of our relatives bought a Tesla this past Spring, when we did, and installed a Tesla home charger. Another will be getting one next Spring, with a home charger They live just close enough that we can visit each without needing a Supercharger stop along the way (though that might not apply on the coldest winter days for the one that lives a bit further) - and with use of their home charging, we will not need one for the way back either.
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I think BEVs will match ICE cars in terms of "fill up" speed, but it'll take solid state batteries and probably battery storage (capacitor storage?) at charger locations to provide a lot of power quickly.
Going to Edmonton twice last winter my dad was seeing 40-50% range loss between the 120km/h typical speeds on the QE2 and -7 to -16C temperatures. He also found out how well cold soaked batteries supercharge (spoiler: they don't). A simple propane or kerosene heater would easily sort that out, but I don't think Elon likes the optics of having hydrocarbons anywhere near a Tesla.
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