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Delay in model X launch?

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AnOutsider said:
Indeed it was, and it didn't seem many believed it...


As I said earlier in the thread... would be good to be more open-minded on these things.
It's always good to be cautious when reading rumors especially in Tesla world with so many people/businesses rooting for it's demise.

Being cautious is one thing, but the old-reasoning of people wanting to just harm Tesla, while may have been true and might still live on in same nefarious blog, empirically no longer applies to Tesla new car watch.

Here's my analysis of what we learned from the Model X:

Most tangible leaks that have gotten serious consideration on TMC concerning the Model X have turned out to be more true than not true, despite strong opposition. And believe me, they were strongly opposed. From the mule on the street looking like the end-product, to the nose cone missing, to hydraulic/electric doors, to adaptive spoiler (well that wasn't a leak), to supplier issues... We basically had the Model X story posted on TMC, noseconeless pictures and all, months prior to launch - and it was met with disbelief more often than not.

History has shown - and this is an important lesson for Model 3 - two things: 1) Tesla is now big enough to have real leaksters and we should listen, critically but openly. 2) Tesla is not big enough to make and drive fake testing cars on the street. What you see is what you quite likely get on both accounts.

Now, critical listening also dictates we must separate potential insider knowledge from personal conjecture. Eds in July could not possibly have known surely how many cars Tesla delivers in 2015, I doubt even Elon Musk knew. All the rest was real info as has been seen, but that was a forward-looking statement and quite possibly mere opinion. We shall see how good that opinion turns out to be.
 
Read page 5 of this tread. Post #46 by WarpedOne pretty much sums up what Eds said.
:wink:

Hmm, I'd forgotten this:

>> All this is because Elon M does not want to see the share price plummet by announcing that they will miss the launch of Model X this year and that there are number of important issues that they have not resolved/do not know how to resolve yet

Interestingly, they did do a capital raise (if I'm remembering correctly) before the price started tanking.


BAN THE SHORT!
 
Hmm, I'd forgotten this:



Interestingly, they did do a capital raise (if I'm remembering correctly) before the price started tanking.


BAN THE SHORT!
Truth be told I was really surprised the stock went up after a capital raise at $242 and I'm sure Tesla was as well. That puts them in a much better position but also signals that they did not have much confidence in a Model X ramp. If they do deliver the Sigs this year that will be a major accomplishment at this point and will at least disprove the last part of the original claims. However, if they only deliver 100 by the end of the year and get the Sigs out in January they have plenty of cash now so that won't cause any real issue with their viability as a business.
 
Truth be told I was really surprised the stock went up after a capital raise at $242 and I'm sure Tesla was as well. That puts them in a much better position but also signals that they did not have much confidence in a Model X ramp. If they do deliver the Sigs this year that will be a major accomplishment at this point and will at least disprove the last part of the original claims. However, if they only deliver 100 by the end of the year and get the Sigs out in January they have plenty of cash now so that won't cause any real issue with their viability as a business.

ev-enthusiast posted a video in the short term TSLA thread of a video showing Founders VIN #84. Did Eds claim 100 total or founders + 100 sigs.
Also, 84 founders seems like quite a lot, no?
 
FAQ


Caption on the right of the table here suggests that they do. How many are crash tested though? And would those be 'founders' cars?

On the mule spotting thread I recall seeing numbers on the side of some of the cars. While this doesn't indicate the VIN, they may be part of the numbering. I thought I saw some in the 80s, but at the moment I can only find one in the 20's and 44:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...le-Sightings?p=1142454&viewfull=1#post1142454
 
ev-enthusiast posted a video in the short term TSLA thread of a video showing Founders VIN #84. Did Eds claim 100 total or founders + 100 sigs.
Also, 84 founders seems like quite a lot, no?
The Model X with VIN #84 was actually a production VIN, not Founders. The VIN was GF000084, whereas a Founders model would have had a second F in it. There were also no Founders graphics shown on the About My Tesla screen.

- - - Updated - - -

Are the crash test cars given VINS? Can't remember how many Founders Ss.......
Every car has a VIN, even ones that only get crashed. The picture they showed at the launch had a Release Candidate VIN, #18 I believe.
 
Truth be told I was really surprised the stock went up after a capital raise at $242 and I'm sure Tesla was as well. That puts them in a much better position but also signals that they did not have much confidence in a Model X ramp. If they do deliver the Sigs this year that will be a major accomplishment at this point and will at least disprove the last part of the original claims. However, if they only deliver 100 by the end of the year and get the Sigs out in January they have plenty of cash now so that won't cause any real issue with their viability as a business.

I'm not so sure we should lean on the claims of 100 vehicles. To me, it sounded like the poster may have had some knowledge, but then extrapolated on it and entered the world of conjecture. It's like an ice cream shop saying "we're only going to sell 10 cones today" when they see it's raining. They're making a guess based on the current conditions. I think he was right about the conditions, but don't know what that will mean for the actual outcome.
 
I've tried to search for this article on other threads and could not find anything. http://www.teslarati.com/tesla-factory-may-have-a-nitric-oxide-nox-problem/

Couldn't this be a major reason for Model X delays. If Tesla's Thermal Oxidizer is down for repairs or replacement, wouldn't that shut everything down?

"everything" being the key. Has there been any indication of delays in Model S deliveries? The Tesla website still estimates "late December delivery" if you start configuring a Model S today.
 
Technically we have to wait until the end of the year, but at this point Eds was correct and Elon was not.

Even if they manage some hail mary and get 800-1,000 delivered by year's end, I'll just see it the same way I saw them opening the design studio at 11:59 PM PST of the last day of their deadline... Scrambling to cover the truth (and in a half-assed way).

What most frustrated me was the rushing put on sigs to configure and lock in when they knew darn well nothing was going out the door for months (and if they didn't, then perhaps Eds should've been hired as their in-house psychic consultant)