I am curious how everyone knows there will be next to no deliveries this year? Is it at all possible that they will build thousands in the next couple months? Were the founders cars all hand built? Just wondering how these conclusions are based.
As Krugerrand mentioned, the conclusions are based on what people are reading on the various threads at forums like this one. The problem is if the information is accurate or not. A person who tours the Tesla Factory and makes a comment may be accurate on the day they share the data, but the following day an entire new process or activity could be occurring. Think of any reports as a snapshot. Like a photo, it's just a moment in time. Put all the snapshots together and better conclusions are determined. With that in mind, let's review.
There have been deliveries on September 29th of Model X that were most likely assembled by hand, however I believe that each one was welded by robots that were programmed during the process of building the mules and test articles. May I suggest that while the very first Model X that we rode in over three years ago on February 9, 2012 was built by hand, there were components of that vehicle that would be identical to Model S. A portion those vehicles existed of parts that came off assembly lines. But prototypes are extremely expensive, as are the very first units of the Founder's production cars, since many hours of time are spent slowly building the vehicle and making sure that the parts and processes are better each time. At this point, we see Model X chassis frames on separate assembly lines at the Fremont factory. There was (on 9/30) a Model X "Training X" sitting near the final assembly line with about a half dozen workers installing all the parts that are installed at the final assembly line. Obviously these are the same workers who build Model S who are learning the differences of the Model X. We know that the final assembly line will be used for both Model S and X, as this information has been provided by both employees at the Launch Event and the Factory Tour. Based on a that "snapshot" in September, the factory is almost ready for a slow ramp up of Model X vehicle production. There will be some extra "hands on" steps for the first vehicles through the line. But those who have taken management classes know that there is a "learning curve". Early production takes longer and as the skills are improved, each task takes less time. Based on those mathematical curves, an auto factory knows how fast production will ramp-up over time. But add to that the delays that can occur with programming a robot, having a supplier improve a part, extra training if an error occurs, and the time it takes to inspect and re-work something that isn't right. It isn't like rocket science, where everything must be perfect for the one launch. Thankfully, if an automobile has a problem, a repair can be made, a modification is possible, a new part can be installed. That can take time, but be positive. Since a half dozen perfect cars exist for the Founders, the Tesla Motors company knows how to build them perfectly. The Signature cars will get that same level of perfection at a slightly faster pace with each one built. The great news to report is when I asked our tour guide if our Signature Model X vehicles are built on the assembly lines, the answer was "yes". I can be assured that since robots are involved, that every weld and process that the programmers have entered into the computer will be accomplished. The processes done by people will be completed at a careful rate at first and as each craftsman and craftswoman does their task, they will get faster and faster until the production line for Model X will be at the same speed as Model S. It has to be, since both models of S and X merge at the end and are assembled by the same team. The quality you get in Model S will be the quality of Model X. I hope that my explanation (based on education for a management degree and ending with several visits to the factory) will help dispel any rumors that production numbers will be low. IMHO, I think we will be surprised at the rate of production once the first Signature vehicles are completed. Be patient, if any flaw is found in the final product, all bets of speedy delivery are off. However, once that imagined flaw is corrected, watch out. Those delivery trucks better line up fast. One more positive note, unlike the early days of Model X, there are now 3 years of production experience at Fremont factory assembling the finest automobiles that Consumer Reports have ever tested.
