Delay in model X launch?

[Lump]

Elon Musk: The Model X is so advanced we probably shouldn't have built it - Business Insider

"I'm not sure anyone should have made this car," he said at a press conference just hours before the first Model Xs were delivered to VIP customers.
"We probably should have just [modified the Model S]," he added. "There are so many more features and difficult to build parts on [the Model X] than it is necessary for us to sell the cars."

But with production of the Model S in full swing and the production of the Model X ramping up, Tesla is expected to produce just 50,000 to 55,000 cars this year. The complexity of the Model X could slow down the production process.
"The initial production run has been very difficult," Musk said. "Ninety percent of parts for the X are fine, 9% are difficult to deal with, and the final 1% is excruciating."
Tesla needs to work the kinks out of its future production goals for the X if it wants the vehicle to be rolling as many, or more, Model X's off the assembly line as Model S's.

 

[Hugh Mannity]

interesting stuff, thanks Mark Z and Lump!

 

[woof]

There turned out to be some decent writing behind that wall of text! I couldn't understand it as written, so I've broken it out with paragraph breaks. Hope this helps someone else who just skips those solid blocks as I tend to.

There have been deliveries on September 29th of Model X that were most likely assembled by hand, however I believe that each one was welded by robots that were programmed during the process of building the mules and test articles.

May I suggest that while the very first Model X that we rode in over three years ago on February 9, 2012 was built by hand, there were components of that vehicle that would be identical to Model S. A portion those vehicles existed of parts that came off assembly lines. But prototypes are extremely expensive, as are the very first units of the Founder's production cars, since many hours of time are spent slowly building the vehicle and making sure that the parts and processes are better each time.

At this point, we see Model X chassis frames on separate assembly lines at the Fremont factory. There was (on 9/30) a Model X "Training X" sitting near the final assembly line with about a half dozen workers installing all the parts that are installed at the final assembly line. Obviously these are the same workers who build Model S who are learning the differences of the Model X.

We know that the final assembly line will be used for both Model S and X, as this information has been provided by both employees at the Launch Event and the Factory Tour. Based on a that "snapshot" in September, the factory is almost ready for a slow ramp up of Model X vehicle production.

There will be some extra "hands on" steps for the first vehicles through the line. But those who have taken management classes know that there is a "learning curve". Early production takes longer and as the skills are improved, each task takes less time. Based on those mathematical curves, an auto factory knows how fast production will ramp-up over time.

But add to that the delays that can occur with programming a robot, having a supplier improve a part, extra training if an error occurs, and the time it takes to inspect and re-work something that isn't right. It isn't like rocket science, where everything must be perfect for the one launch. Thankfully, if an automobile has a problem, a repair can be made, a modification is possible, a new part can be installed. That can take time, but be positive.

Since a half dozen perfect cars exist for the Founders, the Tesla Motors company knows how to build them perfectly. The Signature cars will get that same level of perfection at a slightly faster pace with each one built. The great news to report is when I asked our tour guide if our Signature Model X vehicles are built on the assembly lines, the answer was "yes". I can be assured that since robots are involved, that every weld and process that the programmers have entered into the computer will be accomplished. The processes done by people will be completed at a careful rate at first and as each craftsman and craftswoman does their task, they will get faster and faster until the production line for Model X will be at the same speed as Model S. It has to be, since both models of S and X merge at the end and are assembled by the same team. The quality you get in Model S will be the quality of Model X.

I hope that my explanation (based on education for a management degree and ending with several visits to the factory) will help dispel any rumors that production numbers will be low. IMHO, I think we will be surprised at the rate of production once the first Signature vehicles are completed. Be patient, if any flaw is found in the final product, all bets of speedy delivery are off. However, once that imagined flaw is corrected, watch out. Those delivery trucks better line up fast.

One more positive note, unlike the early days of Model X, there are now 3 years of production experience at Fremont factory assembling the finest automobiles that Consumer Reports have ever tested.

 

[MrBoylan]

I posted this in another thread, but it is topical here too. Motley Fool guys (who are mostly bullish on TSLA) posted details of a conversation with Elon Musk, saying specifically that that fabulous windshield and 2nd row seats are still in short supply and will be/are impacting production ramp-up.

Tesla's Model X Facing Supply Issues - Elon Musk's Update

"If you can tell me when and how these suppliers will deliver these parts, I can tell you how many Model Xes we'll make" (Musk, paraphrased through the Motley Fool analyst). View the (brief) video to get their take...

 

[ZachShahan]

Elon Musk: The Model X is so advanced we probably shouldn't have built it - Business Insider

That second bolded text looks almost identical to something Elon said many months (almost a year?) ago.

- - - Updated - - -

I posted this in another thread, but it is topical here too. Motley Fool guys (who are mostly bullish on TSLA) posted details of a conversation with Elon Musk, saying specifically that that fabulous windshield and 2nd row seats are still in short supply and will be/are impacting production ramp-up.

Tesla's Model X Facing Supply Issues - Elon Musk's Update

"If you can tell me when and how these suppliers will deliver these parts, I can tell you how many Model Xes we'll make" (Musk, paraphrased through the Motley Fool analyst). View the (brief) video to get their take...

This captures the thing that irritates me. So many people "convinced" that the X isn't ready and will be delayed till 2017 don't have solid information to back that up. The challenge is these parts, and Elon himself doesn't seem to know when they will get them in high volume. It seems nobody really knows when production can ramp up, yet some act like they know.

Of course, I'm super hopeful the suppliers get their **** together and also don't try to take Tesla for a ride. And I really hope Tesla has some decent backup options if they (esp the seat people) can't deliver. I'd assume they do, but we don't really have a lot of positive info on that front. The most we seem to have is this interview and the more cautious guidance Tesla gave on the last conf call.

Eager for a positive update... And quite nervous about it.

(On the plus side, though, if the supplier issue lingers and ruins Tesla's sales forecast, I imagine the stock will tank and provide a nice buying opportunity. )

 

[ohmman]

Tesla CEO Elon Musk: The future runs on batteries | Marketplace.org

Elon talks about the hydraulic/electric falcon wing door change in this interview. (And other things, but figured it was pertinent to this thrEds).

 

[Cosmacelf]

Thanks, ohmman. So, another piece of the puzzle. Turns out Tesla did in fact switch from hydraulic actuated doors to electrically actuated doors. I've forgotten now, but was that one of eds' assertions?

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Thanks, ohmman. So, another piece of the puzzle. Turns out Tesla did in fact switch from hydraulic actuated doors to electrically actuated doors. I've forgotten now, but was that one of eds' assertions?

Yes, Eds referred to ongoing design changes, citing the example of door opening mechanism to change from hydraulic to electric.

 

[AnOutsider]

Thanks, ohmman. So, another piece of the puzzle. Turns out Tesla did in fact switch from hydraulic actuated doors to electrically actuated doors. I've forgotten now, but was that one of eds' assertions?

Indeed it was, and it didn't seem many believed it...

Returning to the claim by Eds of ongoing design changes to Model X (being allegedly a root cause for ramp-up volume delays) that included door opening mechanism to change from hydraulic to electric, we now have new pictoral data from the Model X design studio - indeed showing a physical change in the door opening mechanism, not only compared to the 2012-2013 prototype but also compared to the spring 2015 mule leak from Michigan:

Could just be a pretty housing so it looks better.

Is anyone aware of any existing passenger car/truck that has hydraulic mechanisms for doors?

Yeah, that part kind of gave it away. All of the Model X stuff I've seen, including the alphas, don't have hydraulic lifting mechanisms. Why would they go from mechanical (cable or lever) to hydraulic, and then back to mechanical? I'm sure it's a big heavy door with some safety steel inside, but it just takes a bigger motor.

FWIW, Tesla's old patent application talks of hydraulic struts on the falcon wings:

Patent Filing Confirms Production Tesla Model X Will Have Falcon Doors | Inside EVs

Any comments - could a hydraulic strut be something that Tesla could be doing away with?

Did out the actual patent application and we will talk. The abstract is nothing more than the concept in terms that anyone can understand. The word "MAY" and the acronym "e.g" are very key in that abstract. Because... early on the abstract is open to all. You don't give away your secrets. I have no connections to Tesla other than a Model X reservation. I stand firm on my statement that at no point in the design of the Falcon wing doors was a hydraulic motor or other hydraulic methods ever get by the first level of review.

As I said earlier in the thread... would be good to be more open-minded on these things.

 

[Blip]

Indeed it was, and it didn't seem many believed it...











As I said earlier in the thread... would be good to be more open-minded on these things.

Eds probably working at Apple now... [emoji6]

 

[1208]

Eds you still with us? Give us a sign.

 

[Newb]

 

[Vitold]

Indeed it was, and it didn't seem many believed it...


As I said earlier in the thread... would be good to be more open-minded on these things.

It's always good to be cautious when reading rumors especially in Tesla world with so many people/businesses rooting for it's demise.

 

[Cosmacelf]

From what I can remember, Eds has been essentially correct up until now. The final test is whether Tesla delivers all signature cars this year (as they have recently verbally informed me and others to that effect) or whether only 100 will make it out the door, as Eds predicted. Two and a half months to go. Tick, tick, tick...

 

[FredTMC]

From what I can remember, Eds has been essentially correct up until now. The final test is whether Tesla delivers all signature cars this year (as they have recently verbally informed me and others to that effect) or whether only 100 will make it out the door, as Eds predicted. Two and a half months to go. Tick, tick, tick...

how many sig cars are there?
TIA

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Sorry, I must have slept through that phase. Who's this all-knowing Ed chap?

 

[AlMc]

Sorry, I must have slept through that phase. Who's this all-knowing Ed chap?

Really? You are one lucky person........

 

[Joel]

Sorry, I must have slept through that phase. Who's this all-knowing Ed chap?

Where have you been the last 3 months?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Eds the all Knowing started this thread. He did give unto us Prophecies, that have, over the course of time, been shown to be True (or at least Not False). In this very Thread, battles took place between Believers and the Un-Believers. Eds did not stay on this Mortal Plane long, however, and when he left, he took his Prophecies with him (on the request of Tesla legal counsel). The Prophecies live on only in the True Believer's memories, they are not even found in Google's cache.

There is but one important Prophecy left - whether Tesla will deliver 100 or 1,000 Model X before year's end. Eds has Written that it shall be 100. St. Elon has said through his disciples (Model X product specialists) that the number shall be 1,000.

Come back December 31, 2015 to find out who has been the righteous Diety, and who has been the False God.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Yep, you may remember Eds from her role as the Oracle opposite Keanu Reeves in the Matrix.