Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA

[techmaven]

I have no specific data on the Supercharger but even tesla cannot rewrite the laws of physics. At least they recommend not using the Supercharger all the time due to balance issues on the battery. Still, with the Supercharger your charging losses will be at least 3 times higher than on your standard 24A solution at home.

I've replied to you before, and if you were someone actually interested in an exchange of ideas, facts, and opinions, you would have addressed the shortcomings of your earlier posts. Obviously, you aren't.

In any case, you don't know very much about superchargers at all. It is apparent that you are fishing for some facts to try to fit a conclusion you've already made. Let's see… do you know if the superchargers use the on-board chargers? Do you know if there is a change in resistance between charging at home through the on-board chargers and using the superchargers? Do you know what voltage and amperage is used in supercharging? Do you know the resistance? The equation you pointed to Electrical Engineering 101, but you apparently don't know any of the components in either charging case and therefore what meaningful conclusions can you draw? The answer is none.

 

[Realist]

Honestly.

I am short since 91.

I have not driven the Model S yet, unfortunately. But I have seen it several times, sat in it and I have driven the Tesla Roadster for a distinct period. I am looking forward to test the Model S but it is unlikely to change my mind.

Anyway I would like to see less insults here and more facts .Just try to be more objective guys and accept different opinions.

 

[kevin99]

Honestly.

I am short since 91.

I have not driven the Model S yet, unfortunately. But I have seen it several times, sat in it and I have driven the Tesla Roadster for a distinct period. I am looking forward to test the Model S but it is unlikely to change my mind.

Anyway I would like to see less insults here and more facts .Just try to be more objective guys and accept different opinions.

Wonderful. I am long at 35,55,80,90. Why don't we revisit our position and p/l in a week, a month, a quarter, a year?
That speaks much louder than all of your bs here.

 

[Realist]

I've replied to you before, and if you were someone actually interested in an exchange of ideas, facts, and opinions, you would have addressed the shortcomings of your earlier posts. Obviously, you aren't.

In any case, you don't know very much about superchargers at all. It is apparent that you are fishing for some facts to try to fit a conclusion you've already made. Let's see… do you know if the superchargers use the on-board chargers? Do you know if there is a change in resistance between charging at home through the on-board chargers and using the superchargers? Do you know what voltage and amperage is used in supercharging? Do you know the resistance? The equation you pointed to Electrical Engineering 101, but you apparently don't know any of the components in either charging case and therefore what meaningful conclusions can you draw? The answer is none.

I have not talked about the resistance of the chargers! Read my post!

The resistance of the battery is fixed! That was all I was talking about. Just accept it, Tesla's supercharger is not Magic. They cannot redefine the laws of physics.

 

[techmaven]

Honestly.

I am short since 91.

Ah, so the truth comes out. You don't care for the facts, you just want something, anything to get TSLA down to a point where you can recover your losses. Well, certainly the market and the stock is volatile so you might still be able to get out of your position with a profit. But that's not excuse to throw around conjecture and just plain errors as fact. You can do that on Yahoo! Finance boards and you'll fit right in.

I have not driven the Model S yet, unfortunately. But I have seen it several times, sat in it and I have driven the Tesla Roadster for a distinct period. I am looking forward to test the Model S but it is unlikely to change my mind.

Honestly, you are likely to remain unconvinced as long as you are in your short position, probably more due to embarrassment and ego than anything else. Further, whether or not the Model S will sell, no matter what the fate of Tesla Motors, the short term TSLA stock movement is not a vindication of anything in particular. The stock market is too manipulated, too capricious to be validation of anything these days.

Anyway I would like to see less insults here and more facts .Just try to be more objective guys and accept different opinions.

You are hardly being insulted given what drivel you have brought to these forums. Accepting wrong assertions is not being objective. Not all opinions are valid. I can certainly accept that you are blinded by your short position.

 

[ckessel]

Anyway I would like to see less insults here and more facts .Just try to be more objective guys and accept different opinions.

Walk the walk buddy. I'd be happy to see you banned.

It does also have rear seats which are really not acceptable for any person taller than a 12 year old kid.

My daughter's boyfriend is 6'3". My son is 6'4". My father in law is about 6'2". All fit in the Model S back seats without issue.

 

[Realist]

Again honestly.

I have been trading stocks and equities for a living for more than 7 years but cars are my passion. I think what Tesla has done is truly remarkable. I can only repeat that!

Still, people tend to overlook the facts and the current market cap of Tesla is just insane for a car company of that size. I don't want to attack anyone here just telling you my assumptions.

 

[Adm]

The tax incentive in the Netherlands will NOT end in the Netherlands. It may be a little bit less in 2014 than this year, but even that is not sure yet.

 

[kevin99]

Again honestly.

I have been trading stocks and equities for a living for more than 7 years but cars are my passion. I think what Tesla has done is truly remarkable. I can only repeat that!

Still, people tend to overlook the facts and the current market cap of Tesla is just insane for a car company of that size. I don't want to attack anyone here just telling you my assumptions.

Gross ignorance when you value tesla as a car company.
Have you been educated by today's article from a German magazine. Elon is projecting annual sales of 200,000 cars in 3 to 4 years. How is that for the crazy market cap?
And choose to continue to doubt Elon 's statement. My take is I will add another 20% to it for the real figure.

 

[imherkimer]

Yes, Realist, assumptions is the correct word for your statements, and these are assumptions based on misinformation and a long standing negative bias.
Shorting stocks and equities does not make you an expert on electric cars or their future.
You are the one who is "overlooking" the facts. Worse, you are outright ignoring or distorting facts (or manipulating) to suit your prejudice, and validate your short position.
What are you hoping to accomplish here?

 

[NigelM]

Mod Note: This thread was carved out from the Long-Term-Fundamentals-of-Tesla-Motors thread because it was taking that thread off course. We have a poster here who is expressing a view that led him/her to short TSLA, we may think he/she is uninformed and mistaken but let's not descend into personal attacks.

Thanks.

 

[CyberDutchie]

We should be thankful to the shorts, they have financed many Model Ses, including mine! :biggrin:

 

[Doug_G]

It was a good idea to split out this thread. I think it would be good to argue this on the merits, rather than slinging mud.

Let's take the Supercharging argument. Is it inherently less efficient? It does require more cooling power, but you are charging for a much shorter period of time. The resistance of the pack doesn't change significantly with the power level, so the heat generated per kWh charging is probably about the same. There is going to be a bit more heating of the cables. Any extra losses are probably in the power electronics; however, Tesla uses 10 copies of the built-in charger to do this, so the power level per charger box is the same.

Yes, it's probably a little bit less efficient than home charging, but not massively so. If it were 50% efficient the car would probably melt. :biggrin:

More importantly, Supercharging is only intended to be used on long trips. 99% of your charging will be done at home. I've been driving a Tesla for three years now (Roadster and now Model S) and that is definitely an accurate depiction. So even if the Superchargers are extremely inefficient - which they clearly are not - the total impact on your overall efficiency would be trivial.

 

[electrictorque]

@ Realist Do your self a favor and take a model s for a test drive, the car sells itself. Real story: I have a friend that was in the market for a new car, he was looking at BMW, MB, Cadillac, Lexus and I added Tesla to his list. After he test drove the Model S, he decided it was the best car he ever drove. 2 days later he ordered it. he just picked it up this past Sunday, the best part is that he now became a Tesla advocate, giving friends test drives that in turn will turn in to more sales.

 

[Discoducky]

I'm interested to hear the views of a short and believe those views will be interesting on-going even though it is tough to hear at times. Although shorts have a vested interest in the tech failing we should be diligent to keep on topic as emotions will run high. Boiling down the short points is of high interest to me, not to debunk, but to fully understand and setup milestones which will either be proven, disproven or just partially realized/unrealized.

So in effect, most of the current short opinions in this new thread (thanks mods!) are an "overtime" discussion:

Time will tell if TM will sell what they believe they will sell. I'm sure they will adjust course as necessary, but would like to hear from other German folks on the topic of sales/expectations of Model S/X.

Resistance of the supercharger cable is well known and losses are higher than slower charging methods, but not as high as to overcome the benefit. Debating this not very interesting in the grand scheme if the end goal is to make this source fully sustainable. Again, this will happen overtime and time will tell.

Swapping remains an unknown, not just for mechanical aspect, but also financial. Several questions remain unanswered that we'll discuss openly, honestly and sincerely.

 

[Nixx]

One example: Tesla’s supercharger model is just a complete waste of energy. Of course he is offering the power for free, so nobody actually realizes the massive charging losses. This is the only reason why the others are not turning to such a solution. The charging losses and the waste of energy are enormous! It is not a sustainable business model.

Tesla charges $2000 up front for all your fill ups. If one puts 60kw back into their battery, it will cost Tesla 6.60 (at .11 a kw). That's 303 super charges before Tesla starts to lose money. It's pretty rare that a driver will even super charge 303 times in the life of their car. Someone has posted statistics about the average long distance trips per person per year and it's no where year this figure over 10 years. Every car manufacturers would love to tack on $2000 to every one of their cars if they could.

 

[NigelM]

....Model S is very expensive (even with the Tax rebate) and it only applies to a limited audience as it’s range is very limited.

Also BMW is now putting it's own electric line up on sale now in Europe. I cannot imagine Tesla beeing able to compete with this guys here.

I'm happy that other companies will challenge Tesla, it'll help keep them on their toes. That said, I'm confused about your hypotheses WRT to BMW:

You say that the Model S range is limited, but the range is 480km with an 85kWh battery pack. The BMW i3 has a range of 80-100km and even with the (IIRC as yet unspecified) "range extender" you can maybe double that; so the maximum range of the i3 with extended range is still only ~50% of the smaller Model S 60kWh pack.

Arguably the BMW i8 is a better comparison to the Model S, but the battery range on that is only 32km and as I read up on the concept car I couldn't help myself but keep thinking "Fisker......". Oh and BTW, like some other high end sports cars the so called "rear seats" look virtually unusable and I wonder if (as with some other marques) they are only there to keep owners insurance premiums down.

I'd never underestimate BMW, they have unquestionable an ability to produce wonderful drives, but IMO the i3 and the i8 are really not going to be serious competition to the Model S.

Just one last comment on speed: Before I got the Mercedes McLaren SLR, I used to drive an M5 when I lived in Germany; it was really frustrating never being able to find stretches of road without speed limits and (more importantly) clear enough of traffic to get either of them over 200kph.

 

[kevin99]

I'm interested to hear the views of a short and believe those views will be interesting on-going even though it is tough to hear at times. Although shorts have a vested interest in the tech failing we should be diligent to keep on topic as emotions will run high. Boiling down the short points is of high interest to me, not to debunk, but to fully understand and setup milestones which will either be proven, disproven or just partially realized/unrealized.

So in effect, most of the current short opinions in this new thread (thanks mods!) are an "overtime" discussion:

Time will tell if TM will sell what they believe they will sell. I'm sure they will adjust course as necessary, but would like to hear from other German folks on the topic of sales/expectations of Model S/X.

Resistance of the supercharger cable is well known and losses are higher than slower charging methods, but not as high as to overcome the benefit. Debating this not very interesting in the grand scheme if the end goal is to make this source fully sustainable. Again, this will happen overtime and time will tell.

Swapping remains an unknown, not just for mechanical aspect, but also financial. Several questions remain unanswered that we'll discuss openly, honestly and sincerely.

Yes in that regard I am pleased to see there are still prevalent outdated view of shorts. That strengthens my long position.

What is happening to Tesla is a example of market laziness. The small group of people, privileged and diligent, has the up to date progress of what this thing is going, while most people still don't get it.

I use rough language due to the fact that this guy basically repeating the same argument, even others already point out the the flaws.

 

[Realist]

Nice Thread, thx

I think BMW is a very serious threat for Tesla. In Europe certainly.

The BMW i3 is in fact very close to the so called Tesla Gen3 model. It’s range is about 150km and with the range extender it’s close to 500 with the big advantage that you can fill up your car at every gas station. So you can drive with this car wherever you want to. Furthermore for long trips BMW offers an upgrade to a gasoline powered car for free. This is something Tesla cannot offer obviously.

The i8 will be great. I have seen this car already. But of course it is not purely electric. Still I know they have already more than 5000 orders for the car.

BMW has been working on electric cars for more than 50 years. The BMW E1 had 150km range with app. 50hp back than in 1991. But it never went in production. The new i3 is the first serious attempt here to go electric. But it will be difficult.

You see driving habits and infrastructure are very different here. I live in the south of Germany and I can drive more than 200kph every day. It is not really a problem. I tried the Tesla Roadster and it was fun but I just couldn’t help wondering why I should spend so much money on a car offering very limited performance for a sportscar. In the end I ended up with a Lotus costing half as much but offering very similar performance and much better handling.
And it is the same with the Model S. It’s obviously a great thing but there is still the problem that you get a vehicle with very limited range. Very limited because you can travel app. 400-500km and then you need to charge it for hours. It is also a very big car. It would not fit into my garage. The rear seats are way too small and don’t forget that without tax incentives it is hugely expensive. It costs more than a BMW M5. A 305kph M5.

So why am I short the stock?

I see a lot of people got burned by shorting the stock too early. Musk grilled them. But now short interest has come down to 15% so any further squeeze is unlikely. It might go to the 120-130s but I cannot imagine much higher. The valuation is too high. Way too high.

It will be very difficult for Tesla to make any money until 2015 and their cash levels are already not too compelling. They are running massive investments for Model X and Gen3 and at the same time they are battling the US auto dealers. Demand for the Model S is very good at the moment but unlikely to continue at this level. They are dominating the luxury segment ,but I cannot see this continuing even I the Model S truly is such a great car.
For reference, the Fiat Group inc. Chrysler is producing more than a billion cars a year with net cash flows over 2 billion. The market cap is 30% lower than Tesla. And these guys have in fact a very deep knowledge about electric cars. Ferrari has been running KERS Systems in Formula 1 for many years. They are in fact producing in-house batteries with pretty unbelievable power density levels. I just don’t see Italians suddenly buying Tesla cars instead of their Fiats and Alfas.

If electric cars indeed become viable Tesla will face severe competition. You already see GM launching cars like the Chevy Spark (which is quite astonishing for the money). Tesla cannot totally control the supply base. Their battery cells are Japanese. Toyota and Honda will come up with their own solutions if the electric car will move further, which is still a big question mark.

All in all, it is just a battle Tesla cannot win. This is not David vs. Goliath it is David vs. the world.

 

[ElSupreme]

Due to the fixed resistance of the battery (impedance) and the basic relation of P=I^2xR your charging losses will rise exponentially in relation to the power you are using. I have no specific data on the Supercharger but even tesla cannot rewrite the laws of physics. At least they recommend not using the Supercharger all the time due to balance issues on the battery. Still, with the Supercharger your charging losses will be at least 3 times higher than on your standard 24A solution at home.

There is no way you can say this without actually doing some testing. First 24A at home has to go through a AC/DC conversion, with induces losses. Sure your line losses will go up with increased current, but they last for less time.

You obviously don't get the point. Have you ever used a Supercharger? The massive heat increase is a clear sign for serious charge losses. This is basic physic and it's explained here:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/18189-You-might-consider-charging-slower

But that 'massive heat increase' is only for 30 minutes. If you are charging at 40A you have heat build up for hours. You cant use temperature to determine energy loss, you have to factor in TIME!