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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Apparently you aren't certain that it's certain :wink: At least you had enough sense to bail out now.
Kudos to you, Realist, for having the fortitude not only to place your money where your analyses led you, but to come into this lions' den to argue on their behalf. Perhaps we'll be on the same side down the road with another name. Long or short, I enjoyed reading your posts.
Cheers!
Cheers!
deonb
Active Member
Then put your money where you mouth is and short it again.
What could possibly go wrong by betting that Elon Musk is an outright liar? Obviously since we're halfway through Q3, Elon would have no possible way of knowing what's going on in Q3.
So when the s**t hits the fan at the end of Q3 and they're not achieving GM increases and profitability without ZEV credits, you stand to make a killing.
I believe he will come up with some sort of rights issue. At the current cash burn rate they survive another 12 months, so they will have to raise some new money.
The numbers are ridiculous, just like all numbers before. But Elon is a PR master he will feed the party as long as he can.
I will short the stock again but for the moment the party will last. So I wait.
The numbers are ridiculous, just like all numbers before. But Elon is a PR master he will feed the party as long as he can.
I will short the stock again but for the moment the party will last. So I wait.
Perhaps they will do this by doing something you don't expect, like... selling a few cars? Ignoring the ZEV credits they have a 12% margin and still see 25% in 4th quarter.
The numbers are the numbers. It is all laid out in black and white.
As for Elon being a PR master, I disagree.
He is a poor public speaker, and puts his foot in his mouth on occasion.
What he has going for him is his passion and the fact that he delivers, big time!
Glad you got out when you could. Sorry to here you are determined to short TSLA again. But I do apprectiate you helping with the next capital raise as the shorts did with the last.
They loose money.
Look at the cash flow. Also, look at cash levels - capital actions.
Without the stock and debt offerings they would already be out of business.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I see how this is going to go. The shorts keep shorting the stock. When they get called and pay out, the obvious conclusion (ego) is 'I wasn't wrong, just my timing was off'. So they short again. Wash, rinse, repeat.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results.
I did look at the cash flow. They increased inventory some, but had a real negative cash flow of 1 million dollars for the entire quarter.
deonb
Active Member
But Greg! What are we to do??
Surely this means the company is going to run out of cash in 746 quarters. And there is absolutely nothing they can do about it!
Might as well just lock the doors now and throw away the key.
mitch672
Active Member
A negative cash flow of only $1 million is likely just 12-15 loaner cars at service centers, that means if they sold all of the loaner fleet of 100 cars or more, they would have had a really positive cash flow. Oh no, the sky is falling (chicken little)
...and that is why I didn't get a loaner?
maybe I should have shorted instead of buying more stock?
I wonder when will Tesla have a demand problem. I don't think it is there quite yet. Once the SC networks are built then we will see it big time + insanity in the Stock price.
maybe I should have shorted instead of buying more stock?
I wonder when will Tesla have a demand problem. I don't think it is there quite yet. Once the SC networks are built then we will see it big time + insanity in the Stock price.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
To add to the flood of catastrophic news: there are not nearly enough battery factories in the world to supply Tesla's demand. Might as well call it a day and apply for chapter 11 bankruptcy.
Sorry, I misremembered. It was an increase in receivables that hurt the cash flow for the quarter. Basically their cash coming in from operations balanced their capital expenditures. It's in the investor letter:
Cash outflows from operations were $38 million in the quarter. However, this quarter was impacted by several significant one-time items, including the $11 million DoE early payment fee and a $67 million increase in receivables primarily from the timing of payments for ZEV credit sales. We have collected almost all of these receivables at this point. Excluding these one-time effects, we would have generated a significant level of cash from operations.
-38 million cash flow, if you discount the one time effects would have been -38+11+67 = 40 million. Capital expenditures was 40.5 million.
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Well, the cash flow is - 78 for the quarter. Since Tesla does only provide "selected" cash flow info you cannot really see one Time effects there.
Anyway, they have a loss on a GAAP Basis. They even loose money on their NON-GAAP Nummer excluding stock compensation and DoE Repayment effect.
Also I still see no increase in warranty expenses or R&D. Still they want to sell up to 500k cars in a few years. Wired.
smorgasbord
Active Member
Welcome to The Wrong Side of History.
On your left are the studio execs who turned down the script for Gone With The Wind saying "Who wants to see another Civil War movie?"
On your right are the people who dismissed Xerox as "Just a really expensive replacement for a cheap piece of carbon paper."
Further up, you'll pass by Mrs Lennon, who once told her son: "The guitar is a really nice instrument, John, but you'll never make a living playing it."
She's next to Lord Kelvin, who said: "Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible."
He's BFF with Charles Duell, who one said: "Everything that can be invented has been invented."
Then there's Ken Olson, who said: "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
He shares a duplex with David Sarnoff: "The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?" (talking about the radio)
Unfortunately, due to the large number of Tesla shorts moving in, and their lack of financial liquidity, we're having to build a massive low-income project to house them all. Good thing you're arriving early.
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