Did Tesla design cars to be able to take a range extender just incase?

[FastLaneJB]

The first chart from SMMT is NEW sales showing EV percentage growing.

The rest is preemptive because the next trope is normally used demand/residuals.

Next trope after that is normally Elon or oft disproved FUD about carbon (see Auke Hoesksta on X for data suggesting EVs soon make up for any extra emissions in manufacturing). Long form videos of Elon normally helps with misunderstanding. Video of him near tears when he heard that Australians couldn't afford electricity is moving.

New sales, fleet vs private.

Leasing from a company means the company gets the company car tax benefits for EVs. Perhaps they can bundle in a charger or ev charging rates. EVs are generally more expensive, so more likely to be leased than cheaper cars. People have more concerns, so leasing may be seen as a safer option than purchase. Often lease cars are bought in bulk and then matched with customers. Fleet sales.

There is of course the advantages that employers and employees get from salary sacrifice, especially those close to child benefit or tax thresholds.

If you're wanting a cheap ICE, buying might be a better option. Some of the people I know that buy ICE buy with cash or source the loan themselves. Hence why private usage of EVs might be skewed to fleet figures and ICE to private.

Most top selling ICE cars are cheaper and smaller, hence easier to buy with cash or personal loans (which i believe might be harder to get or more expensive above £25,000).

The FUD regarding fleet vs private is just cherry picking.

We've seen years of nonsense cherry picking regarding ship arrivals, deliveries, taxes and subsidies in different markets.

It's as dull and repetitive as it is wrong

Other info shows EV demand is increasing (back to SMMT market stats).

The first and only chart I’ve put shows that EV as a percentage of new car sales is dropping for private buyers. Are there still more EV’s getting added to the road, sure but for private buyers they are reversing the trend and buying a larger percentage of ICE cars than they did in 2023.

Of course if you can go salary sacrifice or a company is buying a car then the percentage that are EV’s is much higher because it’s way more tax efficient to do so. The government is steering people to EV’s with incentives in fleet sales, not in private. Take that away and I think fleet sales would follow private buyers and the share of new car sales would drop from where they are now.

“The SMMT put the decline in EV sales to private buyers down to a lack of government support, and is urging the government to halve VAT on BEVs, a move that they believe will lead to a quarter of a million extra EVs being sold by 2026.”

You mention a lot of other points but still seem to be disputing the chart I’ve put from the same source where you are claiming they are growing which is true when private and fleet is combined though only just. My point was without incentives to steer people, they are moving away from buying EV’s as the mix of new cars and not increasing. The SMMT agree with that view that it needs incentives to shift EV’s in growing numbers.

 

[Rooster6655]

Of course if you can go salary sacrifice or a company is buying a car then the percentage that are EV’s is much higher because it’s way more tax efficient to do so. The government is steering people to EV’s with incentives in fleet sales, not in private. Take that away and I think fleet sales would follow private buyers and the share of new car sales would drop from where they are now.

The government was even quoted recently about how they are encouraging fleet sales and have noted that used car prices are in line with petrol/diesel cars now making them more affordable, if they actually planned this intentionally it would be impressive but not sure if this was the case!

I would say though that is pretty hard to get rid of an EV currently as dealers don't want more generally and hence it's just the sheer massive depreciation that keeps second hand EV's moving.

I know of people trying to sell an EV waiting months even being the cheapest price, there 2nd hand market has huge inventory and hasn't grown at the same rate (It is however growing fast) as the new market hence the lower prices, really the gov should incentivise used EVs now rather than new ones

 

[GRiLLA]

It's a time to hold on EVs as far as I'm concerned, at the moment there is a lull as the desperate party will say anything it feels is right wing populism ahead of the election. Assuming bacon sandwiches are carefully avoided we will be back to a 2030 phase out and there will be far more straightforward messaging and incentives for electric vehicles by next year. Infighting and extremists will keep the right busy for at least a year, by which point confidence will be recovering in used car markets.
The other big change is the very intelligent EU policy for 'battery passports' will have come in from Feb 2027. meaning that new EVs will be fitted with a barcode that allows a prospective buyer to scan it and see details on the batteries remaining capacity, original capacity, materials etc. This seems like an excellent idea to me and should help remove the nervousness of second hand buyers to know what they are buying. EU battery passport regulation requirements

 

[FastLaneJB]

It's a time to hold on EVs as far as I'm concerned, at the moment there is a lull as the desperate party will say anything it feels is right wing populism ahead of the election. Assuming bacon sandwiches are carefully avoided we will be back to a 2030 phase out and there will be far more straightforward messaging and incentives for electric vehicles by next year. Infighting and extremists will keep the right busy for at least a year, by which point confidence will be recovering in used car markets.
The other big change is the very intelligent EU policy for 'battery passports' will have come in from Feb 2027. meaning that new EVs will be fitted with a barcode that allows a prospective buyer to scan it and see details on the batteries remaining capacity, original capacity, materials etc. This seems like an excellent idea to me and should help remove the nervousness of second hand buyers to know what they are buying. EU battery passport regulation requirements

I'm not convinced they'll go back to 2030 phase out, it's too quick and pretty unachievable. 2035 aligns with the EU and frankly not even sure that'll pull that date off but it's got a much higher chance of success.

Knowing the health of the battery is really important so that's a good move by the EU.

 

[FastLaneJB]

The government was even quoted recently about how they are encouraging fleet sales and have noted that used car prices are in line with petrol/diesel cars now making them more affordable, if they actually planned this intentionally it would be impressive but not sure if this was the case!


I know of people trying to sell an EV waiting months even being the cheapest price, there 2nd hand market has huge inventory and hasn't grown at the same rate (It is however growing fast) as the new market hence the lower prices, really the gov should incentivise used EVs now rather than new ones

As you say the issue with used EV's is no incentives for them and fleet generally sticks new and then sells on anyway. You've a mismatch of fleet buying more EV's than they would otherwise because of incentives, these roll into the used market in higher numbers than buyers without incentives want to purchase. Hence prices of used EV's drop a lot because they cannot shift them without massive markdowns and even then it's tricky.

 

[UkNorthampton]

As you say the issue with used EV's is no incentives for them and fleet generally sticks new and then sells on anyway. You've a mismatch of fleet buying more EV's than they would otherwise because of incentives, these roll into the used market in higher numbers than buyers without incentives want to purchase. Hence prices of used EV's drop a lot because they cannot shift them without massive markdowns and even then it's tricky.

This counteracts the Autotrader data I linked to on video and showed screenshot. As I said, my post contained info to partially preempt the used EV trope (as I could guess next talking point).

In summary, Autotrader showing USED EV market health is at +60-80%, greatest fuel type demand balance is EV

 

[FastLaneJB]

This counteracts the Autotrader data I linked to on video and showed screenshot. As I said, my post contained info to partially preempt the used EV trope (as I could guess next talking point).

In summary, Autotrader showing USED EV market health is at +60-80%, greatest fuel type demand balance is EV

Once they are discounted enough to shift though. They'd not depreciate as much as they do if the demand outstripped the supply.

Ultimately though as I mentioned with new sales, without incentives people are turning away from EV's and not towards them at the moment. Have to see if that trend continues, I imagine a lot of the negative press is having some impact here.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Once they are discounted enough to shift though. They'd not depreciate as much as they do if the demand outstripped the supply.

Ultimately though as I mentioned with new sales, without incentives people are turning away from EV's and not towards them at the moment. Have to see if that trend continues, I imagine a lot of the negative press is having some impact here.

Used EV prices rising as a result of used EV demand outpacing used EV supply.

I provided evidence from two UK used specialists stating this supported by Autotrader data and auction prices breaching both CAP average and CAP clean. CAP being a figure calculated from recent auction sales.

"Turning away from EVs" is unsupported by evidence. You have made the case that private new EV sales are skewed differently from ICE. This is to be expected as EVs are more expensive and some see EVs as more risky. Harder to borrow enough money to buy EVs outright and leasing avoids some new tech risks.

Also higher/longer high interest rates and mortgages/inflation squeezing budgets.

Therefore EVs less likely to be included in the private sales bucket, as more likely to be bulk bought by leasing companies and included in fleet sales. This is entirely predictable, even as new EV sales are greater percentage of new car market and used EV prices rise.

 

[GRiLLA]

I'm not convinced they'll go back to 2030 phase out, it's too quick and pretty unachievable. 2035 aligns with the EU and frankly not even sure that'll pull that date off but it's got a much higher chance of success.

Knowing the health of the battery is really important so that's a good move by the EU.

Reinstating the 2030 timeline is part of Labours published policy https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/WR-797_23-Automotive-strategy-v8.pdf

Now I know that the current government doesn't have any track record of delivering election promises, but previous governments have done better, so I would be relatively confident.

There's more than 5 years left, it's easily going to be achieved, you just stop selling new ICE cars, what's hard about it ? The flip-flopping and lack of certainty from the current shower of politicians is guaranteed to fail.

 

[ewoodrick]

Used EV prices rising as a result of used EV demand outpacing used EV supply.

I provided evidence from two UK used specialists stating this supported by Autotrader data and auction prices breaching both CAP average and CAP clean. CAP being a figure calculated from recent auction sales.

"Turning away from EVs" is unsupported by evidence. You have made the case that private new EV sales are skewed differently from ICE. This is to be expected as EVs are more expensive and some see EVs as more risky. Harder to borrow enough money to buy EVs outright and leasing avoids some new tech risks.

Also higher/longer high interest rates and mortgages/inflation squeezing budgets.

Therefore EVs less likely to be included in the private sales bucket, as more likely to be bulk bought by leasing companies and included in fleet sales. This is entirely predictable, even as new EV sales are greater percentage of new car market and used EV prices rise.

So many people look at change in rate of growth and think that it is percentage of sales or rate of growth.

If the rate of growth goes down, the only thing that it may mean that instead of growing 30% year over year, it's now growing 29%.

 

[UkNorthampton]

So many people look at change in rate of growth and think that it is percentage of sales or rate of growth.

If the rate of growth goes down, the only thing that it may mean that instead of growing 30% year over year, it's now growing 29%.

Absolutely, I see this in vox pop interviews regarding inflation

Interviewer : "What do you think of the recent fall in inflation?"

Public: "I dont believe it, prices haven't come down"

Many people fail to understand rates vs absolutes.

The fall in rate of growth is deliberately or badly explained and I've had a number of people say EV sales are down when they're not according to official figures.

If you ever want to depress yourself, just go through Daily Mail EV article comments. Same old disproved tropes from years ago plus this "EV sales falling" narrative that's disproved. Ditto used EV demand.

I'm pretty good at maths, science, logic. I'm constantly surprised at people misunderstanding basic figures and reporting.

 

[FastLaneJB]

Reinstating the 2030 timeline is part of Labours published policy https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/WR-797_23-Automotive-strategy-v8.pdf

Now I know that the current government doesn't have any track record of delivering election promises, but previous governments have done better, so I would be relatively confident.

There's more than 5 years left, it's easily going to be achieved, you just stop selling new ICE cars, what's hard about it ? The flip-flopping and lack of certainty from the current shower of politicians is guaranteed to fail.

I think the stop selling ICE cars part is easy. If people cannot afford an EV when time comes to change, cannot charge it easily because not enough chargers and so on. They'll delay it vs the risk of damage to the economy and the huge public backlash there will be if people cannot easily drive anymore.

They can change it back to 2030 but doesn't mean it'll happen in 2030 if when closer to that date it doesn't seem feasible. I've not googled it but I suspect this is not a popular policy with the public.

 

[FastLaneJB]

So many people look at change in rate of growth and think that it is percentage of sales or rate of growth.

If the rate of growth goes down, the only thing that it may mean that instead of growing 30% year over year, it's now growing 29%.

That’s not what’s being discussed though. It’s the percentage of private buyers that buy EV, Petrol and Diesel in new sales.

The number always has to add up to 100% irrespective of how many cars are sold overall because it’s either an EV, Petrol or Diesel. I believe PHEV’s are also in the EV category.

When the percentage drops for EV’s from 2023 to 2024 it means that EV’s are becoming less popular and some buyers in 2023 that would have brought an EV are now buying an ICE.

Yes assuming no EV’s are scrapped then there’s still more on the road than there was last year. However there’s even more new ICE’s on the road than you’d expect compared to last year because the transition of more and more private buyers people EV’s reversed and the percentage dropped vs ICE.

 

[GRiLLA]

I think the stop selling ICE cars part is easy. If people cannot afford an EV when time comes to change, cannot charge it easily because not enough chargers and so on. They'll delay it vs the risk of damage to the economy and the huge public backlash there will be if people cannot easily drive anymore.

They can change it back to 2030 but doesn't mean it'll happen in 2030 if when closer to that date it doesn't seem feasible. I've not googled it but I suspect this is not a popular policy with the public.

The challenge around chargers won't happen overnight on Jan 1 2030, there's at least another 3 years before its potentially a massive issue so 9 years from now, its resolvable, plenty of time.

 

[UkNorthampton]

That’s not what’s being discussed though. It’s the percentage of private buyers that buy EV, Petrol and Diesel in new sales.

The number always has to add up to 100% irrespective of how many cars are sold overall because it’s either an EV, Petrol or Diesel. I believe PHEV’s are also in the EV category.

When the percentage drops for EV’s from 2023 to 2024 it means that EV’s are becoming less popular and some buyers in 2023 that would have brought an EV are now buying an ICE.

Yes assuming no EV’s are scrapped then there’s still more on the road than there was last year. However there’s even more new ICE’s on the road than you’d expect compared to last year because the transition of more and more private buyers people EV’s reversed and the percentage dropped vs ICE.

No. If you missed out the words "categorised as private sales" you have a point. But, private usage includes cars categorised as "fleet sales".

 

[FastLaneJB]

No. If you missed out the words "categorised as private sales" you have a point. But, private usage includes cars categorised as "fleet sales".

Well no. The point I've had to constantly repeat over and over is when there's no incentives, EV sales as a percentage of new car sales is dropping in the UK. Private drivers using salary sacrifice or company car drivers inside fleet sales do get tax breaks that steer them to EV's.

I have a point, you just don't seem to like it

 

[FastLaneJB]

The challenge around chargers won't happen overnight on Jan 1 2030, there's at least another 3 years before its potentially a massive issue so 9 years from now, its resolvable, plenty of time.

If it hugely impacts new car sales because people want to hang onto their ICE cars because the charging network is still seen as a mess, it could be an issue. I mean in theory I agree with you, just think in practice it might not be that clear cut.

 

[GRiLLA]

If it hugely impacts new car sales because people want to hang onto their ICE cars because the charging network is still seen as a mess, it could be an issue. I mean in theory I agree with you, just think in practice it might not be that clear cut.

I'm sure people will hold onto their ICE cars, that's not a bad thing. I think my point is if we cant do it in 2030 then we equally cant do it in 2035 or 2040. It just needs to be done, only impending doom will really get things moving at all.

 

[ewoodrick]

I think the stop selling ICE cars part is easy. If people cannot afford an EV when time comes to change, cannot charge it easily because not enough chargers and so on. They'll delay it vs the risk of damage to the economy and the huge public backlash there will be if people cannot easily drive anymore.

They can change it back to 2030 but doesn't mean it'll happen in 2030 if when closer to that date it doesn't seem feasible. I've not googled it but I suspect this is not a popular policy with the public.

That reminds me of just a few years ago when the US went to Digital TV. It was years of gloom and doom. The TVs were going to be too expensive, no one wanted it. They even came out with DTV converters for older TVS.

Then the conversion date occurred.
The prices in TVs were actually cheaper than the analog TVs and no one used the converters that were sometimes even given away.

And now it's hard to even phantom why people complained about it. Who in the crap would want to watch that low resolution crap?


Just 5 years ago, EVs were not really an option in anyone's playbook (except Tesla's). Today, there is the discussion of world domination.

EVs are accelerating at rates higher than most any other technology in the past.

 

[ewoodrick]

When the percentage drops for EV’s from 2023 to 2024 it means that EV’s are becoming less popular and some buyers in 2023 that would have brought an EV are now buying an ICE.

Okay, maybe not change in rate of growth, but you are still playing with percentages and making possibly invalid assumptions.

It's somewhat similar to the statement that food causes cancer, because in 100% of the cancer cases, the patient ate food. The researcher forgot to look at the other side of the equation.

Just because the percentage year of year are less, doesn't mean that people have reduced buying EVs. It could mean something as simple as "there wasn't as many used EVs for sale". It also could mean that the EV sales are up, but ICE was up more. And that may be because people were buying new EVs and there were more cheaper ICEs on the market.

And then you even have to question what an EV is in any study. BEV, PHEV, HEV?


All of this started with a question from you, a person who has severe range anxiety.

Nothing is going to be good enough for you. You have already proven that you are not open to stretch your envelope.