I don't fully agree with your specific analogies, but I concur that the EV market will mimic the mobile phone market.
That's why people should not jump on this deal unless out of necessity-- EV prices have nowhere else to go but down in the near future (barring another event that perturbs the supply chain), or you will get more advanced features for the same money.
An alternative view....I've had my 3P for almost 3 years. FSD is now more than double what I paid so I'm thinking if someone could capture that price difference it would offset some of the depreciation lost on the car (assuming they don't buy FSD at the new price) and you could benefit from the new lower base price and even potentially get the $7.5k tax credit as well.
I've been toying with getting a new 3P just to get a fresh battery and the newer HVAC system. Unless I'm missing something obvious, this seems like a no brainer to get a new 3P for next to nothing.
Best,