At that price, I'd say M3SR RWD. That's exactly what I'm shopping, and there was one about two hours away that I considered buying (while it was available) but was trying to arrange for when my wife would be in that area for work in two weeks. My wife was willing to just go for it now though. I talked to Tesla about it, and they said they would not allow me to wait that long to pick it up. So, I decided I wanted to wait. Now I can't save that extra $400, but there's one an hour closer for the $400 more. It's somewhat tempting, but not all that tempting. One a half hour closer than that is available for another $400. So, $800 loss is what I see as my worst case over the $37,190 that was low enough to get me to bite. Thats the price that's only ~$930 over the lowest price in the country right now and includes the $1000 white interior option.
In previous quarters, I see talk of $4000 discounts. The $37,190 id a $2800 discount. I am going to guess that the talk of $4000 discounts was not for ALL models, but maybe just some. Right now, I'm seeing about $3780 discounts on M3 Performance ($50,210), and $3530 on M3LR AWD (with 19" wheels for $46,960), and $3040 for M3RWD in Red w 19" wheels ($40,450), and $2940 discount for Red w white interior and 18" wheels ($39,050). If you just want white interior (like me), you can get a little more ($2800) of a discount than the total-base at $2730.
So, the question is whether the discounts will increase in the last month of the quarter as Tesla-Info claims they do. The "salesperson" at my local office said that deliveries during the last month of the quarter get nuts, and an attempt to offer a better customer experience, they've implemented discounts early to try and get people to buy earlier. She encouraged me to just grab one of the more-local options at a few hundred bucks more to help ensure I have smooth delivery.
So I'm left wondering if there will be additional discounts, or if we are already at the $4000 discount number seen in previous quarters because we've already got some $3780 discounts out there now. Plus the Federal Incentive is scheduled to drop apparently. So, this quarter could be more hectic than previous.
I'm sticking with my watch of the inventory numbers and hoping they are correct.