Electrify Everything

[David_Cary]

Percentage penetration of EVs vs. heat pump dryers? Or line drying?
Is it reasonable? Not really. But I am just saying that people think charging an EV is too big of a change to make. Line drying is probably akin to "go back to living in caves" for a lot of people.

Taking longer to dry clothing is a fairly big complaint. My last experience was awful - in Ireland last year. I could imagine the variety of clothing and even ambient humidity might be significant variables. My math at home comes out to 600 kw a year for drying (good spin extraction) - so probably 400 kw potential saving. That $50 a year compared to potential longevity issues, maintenance, and higher initial cost and it isn't compelling. I think restricting drying to sunny days is a better idea when electricity will only get cheaper. Ignoring venting loses but we tend to encourage a bit of ventilation on most days so I doubt would be significant.
It seems like there are a few types of heat pump dryers and it maybe that what I was experiencing in Ireland might not be quite the same.
Now, CA electricity prices without solar or limited home panel - might be more compelling.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Percentage penetration of EVs vs. heat pump dryers? Or line drying?
Is it reasonable? Not really. But I am just saying that people think charging an EV is too big of a change to make. Line drying is probably akin to "go back to living in caves" for a lot of people.

Taking longer to dry clothing is a fairly big complaint. My last experience was awful - in Ireland last year. I could imagine the variety of clothing and even ambient humidity might be significant variables. My math at home comes out to 600 kw a year for drying (good spin extraction) - so probably 400 kw potential saving. That $50 a year compared to potential longevity issues, maintenance, and higher initial cost and it isn't compelling. I think restricting drying to sunny days is a better idea when electricity will only get cheaper. Ignoring venting loses but we tend to encourage a bit of ventilation on most days so I doubt would be significant.
It seems like there are a few types of heat pump dryers and it maybe that what I was experiencing in Ireland might not be quite the same.
Now, CA electricity prices without solar or limited home panel - might be more compelling.

Line drying, tumble dryers...

UK - dehumidifier designed for UK climate plus ordinary swivelling fan & drying racks/hangers - much cheaper than normal hot air/tumble dryers.

Saves getting deep creases, ironing effort. Wash/dry according to solar excess or cheap electricity in middle of night ("time of use" tariff*). Don't heat the drying room, close doors and the dehumidifier is the coldest point in the room, so no mould**. The dehumidifier outputs dry warm air. If electricity price rises and much of drying complete, open door & keep fan on, dehumidifier off.

When it's REALLY cheap electricity (and we CAN be paid to take electricity on rare occasions), run dehumidifier to dry out house a little.

I'd also add, it's easier and safer (many dryer fires in UK when fluff ignited) - many people don't run dryers unsupervised. A neighbour's tumble dryer caught fire, luckily Fire Brigade came really quickly.

Also, for parts of North America don't the aircons make rooms too dry? Do people dry indoors at all? With UK weather, people often do all or partial drying using gas boiler heated radiators. Often leads to mould problems (especially if no fans or dehumidifiers), but with small kids & unpredictable weather, often has to happen - especially for the poorest people in the poorest areas/housing.

*tariff is International/British English for plan/price/cost. I've been told "tariff" exclusively means tax in USA, but we mean price plan.

** mould = mold in USA?

 

[mspohr]

Percentage penetration of EVs vs. heat pump dryers? Or line drying?
Is it reasonable? Not really. But I am just saying that people think charging an EV is too big of a change to make. Line drying is probably akin to "go back to living in caves" for a lot of people.

Taking longer to dry clothing is a fairly big complaint. My last experience was awful - in Ireland last year. I could imagine the variety of clothing and even ambient humidity might be significant variables. My math at home comes out to 600 kw a year for drying (good spin extraction) - so probably 400 kw potential saving. That $50 a year compared to potential longevity issues, maintenance, and higher initial cost and it isn't compelling. I think restricting drying to sunny days is a better idea when electricity will only get cheaper. Ignoring venting loses but we tend to encourage a bit of ventilation on most days so I doubt would be significant.
It seems like there are a few types of heat pump dryers and it maybe that what I was experiencing in Ireland might not be quite the same.
Now, CA electricity prices without solar or limited home panel - might be more compelling.

We line dry in summer and use the heat pump dryer in winter. (Summer usually warm and dry outside. We live at high elevation in the mountains.)

 

[wws]

Line drying, tumble dryers...

UK - dehumidifier designed for UK climate plus ordinary swivelling fan & drying racks/hangers - much cheaper than normal hot air/tumble dryers.

Saves getting deep creases, ironing effort. Wash/dry according to solar excess or cheap electricity in middle of night ("time of use" tariff*). Don't heat the drying room, close doors and the dehumidifier is the coldest point in the room, so no mould**. The dehumidifier outputs dry warm air. If electricity price rises and much of drying complete, open door & keep fan on, dehumidifier off.

When it's REALLY cheap electricity (and we CAN be paid to take electricity on rare occasions), run dehumidifier to dry out house a little.

I'd also add, it's easier and safer (many dryer fires in UK when fluff ignited) - many people don't run dryers unsupervised. A neighbour's tumble dryer caught fire, luckily Fire Brigade came really quickly.

Also, for parts of North America don't the aircons make rooms too dry? Do people dry indoors at all? With UK weather, people often do all or partial drying using gas boiler heated radiators. Often leads to mould problems (especially if no fans or dehumidifiers), but with small kids & unpredictable weather, often has to happen - especially for the poorest people in the poorest areas/housing.

*tariff is International/British English for plan/price/cost. I've been told "tariff" exclusively means tax in USA, but we mean price plan.

** mould = mold in USA?

View attachment 997842

With a conventional dryer, it is really important to clean the ductwork between the dryer and the outside. Lint builds up over time - especially if the duct is long and/or has significant bends in it. (Our house has a particularly bad problem with it, since the duct runs upwards to the roof. Needs to be professionally cleaned every 5-10 years.)

We briefly considered a heat pump dryer when replacing our failed dryer a couple years ago. But the only ones available had much smaller capacity, and were much more expensive. Interestingly, the new dryer has wifi access, a phone app, and even does OTA firmware updates!

 

[iPlug]

With a conventional dryer, it is really important to clean the ductwork between the dryer and the outside. Lint builds up over time - especially if the duct is long and/or has significant bends in it. (Our house has a particularly bad problem with it, since the duct runs upwards to the roof...

Similar situation here. Straight vertical shot in our case to the roof after 90 degree bend by the dryer. I connect our battery electric Ryobi 40V leaf blower to the vent every couple years with success confirmed with iPhone camera showing a clear circle to the roof (and a bunch of lint on the roof).

...We briefly considered a heat pump dryer when replacing our failed dryer a couple years ago. But the only ones available had much smaller capacity, and were much more expensive...

We've been waiting for the same for years. A couple years ago LG finally came out with a "full size" 7.4 cubic feet ventless heat pump dryer. It gets good reviews and is nearly as efficient as the small units. Unfortunately, LG still refuses to sell it as a stand-alone unit and continues to offer it in a tower washer/dryer combo unit, currently for ~$2,300 at most retailers.

Single Unit Front Load LG WashTower™ - WKHC202HBA | LG USA

 

[mspohr]

Similar situation here. Straight vertical shot in our case to the roof after 90 degree bend by the dryer. I connect our battery electric Ryobi 40V leaf blower to the vent every couple years with success confirmed with iPhone camera showing a clear circle to the roof (and a bunch of lint on the roof).



We've been waiting for the same for years. A couple years ago LG finally came out with a "full size" 7.4 cubic feet ventless heat pump dryer. It gets good reviews and is nearly as efficient as the small units. Unfortunately, LG still refuses to sell it as a stand-alone unit and continues to offer it in a tower washer/dryer combo unit, currently for ~$2,300 at most retailers.

Single Unit Front Load LG WashTower™ - WKHC202HBA | LG USA

We have Samsung units. Work well

 

[mspohr]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/09/business/energy-environment/two-three-wheel-electric-vehicles.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Ek0.zauG.TlnciKfkX5FB&smid=nytcore-android-share

Big Oil faces a tiny foe on the streets of Asia and Africa. The noisy, noxious vehicles that run on two and three wheels, carrying billions of people daily, are quietly going electric — in turn knocking down oil demand by one million barrels a day this year. In Kenya and Rwanda, dozens of start-ups are vying to replace oil-guzzling motorcycle taxis with battery-powered ones. In India, more than half of all new three-wheeled vehicles sold and registered this year were battery-operated. Indonesia and Thailand are also encouraging electrification of motorcycle taxis.

The shift to electric mobility overall has reduced global oil demand by 1.8 million barrels every day, according to BloombergNEF, a research arm of Michael Bloomberg’s financial data and media company. Two- and three-wheelers account for 60 percent of that reduction, or 1.08 million barrels.

 

[iPlug]

Looks like LG recently released a new full-sized stand-alone heat pump dryer, model DLHC5502 that takes the championship for efficiency in that size.

Per Energy Star Metrics:
Drum Capacity (cu-ft): 7.8
Ventless
Combined Energy Factor (CEF): 9.0
Estimated Annual Energy Use (kWh/yr): 266
Refrigerant with GWP: R-134a (GWP:1430)
Date Available on Market: 2023-10-02 (but still mostly a ghost model on web searches)

https://www.energystar.gov/productfinder/product/certified-clothes-dryers/details/2669197/export/pdf

 

[SageBrush]

Looks like LG recently released a new full-sized stand-alone heat pump dryer, model DLHC5502 that takes the championship for efficiency in that size.

Per Energy Star Metrics:
Drum Capacity (cu-ft): 7.8
Ventless
Combined Energy Factor (CEF): 9.0
Estimated Annual Energy Use (kWh/yr): 266
Refrigerant with GWP: R-134a (GWP:1430)
Date Available on Market: 2023-10-02 (but still mostly a ghost model on web searches)

Thanks. I had to look up CEF. The best (non heat pump) electric dryers are up to 3.9 CEF; Energy star requires a minimum CEF of 3.3-ish. So the LG heat pump dryer you found has a COP of ~ 2.7.

Not bad for sure, but I keep wondering if the price difference is not better spent elsewhere. Or put another way, the heat pump dryer saves say 600 kWh a year of electricity for 10 years, amounting to 6000 kWh. If the price difference is e.g. $1,200 then a kWh saved costs 20¢. And that presumes proper disposal of the refrigerant at end of life which is far from a given unless (sometimes sky high) disposal fees are paid. In my state of NM improper disposal of refrigerants is rife. I expect more tightly regulated states to be magnets for organized crime.

As an aside, I found heat pump dryers using propane as a refrigerant. So called R-290 has a GWPe of 3.0. If the flammability/safety issues have been controlled then I'm a lot more inclined to go that route.

 

[David_Cary]

Tariff in the US isn't just tax - it is a levy on imports and exports. I think most posters on this forum would understand the UK meaning of tariff but we might not always remember it.

I have to think your "mould" is our "mold" by definition. But I imagine your mold is different than our mold. Leaky older buildings that have never seen a/c is quite a bit different than our new housing stock. You are also surrounded by water much tighter than we are. Not to mention the pacific side of US is quite dry. At least in the East - A/c does not dry our houses out too much. I suppose in a tight house with high solar load it can happen but it isn't a common problem. Our interior dry season is mostly in leaky houses in the winter where outside air enters with little moisture.

 

[iPlug]

Thanks. I had to look up CEF. The best (non heat pump) electric dryers are up to 3.9 CEF; Energy star requires a minimum CEF of 3.3-ish. So the LG heat pump dryer you found has a COP of ~ 2.7.

Not bad for sure, but I keep wondering if the price difference is not better spent elsewhere. Or put another way, the heat pump dryer saves say 600 kWh a year of electricity for 10 years, amounting to 6000 kWh. If the price difference is e.g. $1,200 then a kWh saved costs 20¢...

Agree, heat pump clothes dryers are unlikely the lowest hanging fruit for most anyone. But in a household of several people, the math may work out well after achieving other efficiency upgrades.

The DLHC5502 is listed for $1,500 online. That's $1k more than the cheapest standard electric dryer in our area. Marginal electricity prices here in PG&E land are ~40-50¢/kWh. So a family of 4 like us could be ahead in just a few years. Conversely, the numbers may never pencil out for a couple with cheaper electricity and/or on a rate plan that lets them run the dryer at super off-peak rates.

...that presumes proper disposal of the refrigerant at end of life...

Energy Star should perhaps post not just the refrigerant GWP but also the amount in the unit so one could estimate, if none were recycled or all escaped, the worst case GWP scenarios of the unit throughout its operative life.

The proper disposal/recycling of refrigerant of home air AC/heat pumps, refrigerators, heat pump water heaters, and now heat pump clothes dryers seems like an area that should be tightly regulated and get significant media attention. There don't seem to be many stories on this subject.

 

[SageBrush]

Agree, heat pump clothes dryers are unlikely the lowest hanging fruit for most anyone.

Yep. I think it falls into the Chris Dizon rule (a member here on TMC) who answers every conservation question the same: "put up more PV!"
For people like us with PV already in place, we are not likely to add more. But I think the sentiment is pretty sound. Improving the home envelope might also be a smarter choice (both in terms of carbon pollution and money) than a heat pump clothes dryer, although that is a lot harder to generalize.

I may be coming off as anti-heat pump but that is not my intent. It is more a case of wanting them to be cheaper. One major benefit of heat pump devices is their much lower load requirements. E.g., I don't think my heat pump water heater has ever exceeded one kW. When utilities get around to widespread demand charging, the money value of these devices will jump.

 

[mspohr]

Yep. I think it falls into the Chris Dizon rule (a member here on TMC) who answers every conservation question the same: "put up more PV!"
For people like us with PV already in place, we are not likely to add more. But I think the sentiment is pretty sound. Improving the home envelope might also be a smarter choice (both in terms of carbon pollution and money) than a heat pump clothes dryer, although that is a lot harder to gauge.

I may be coming off as anti-heat pump but that is not my intent. It is more a case of wanting them to be cheaper. One major benefit of heat pump devices is their much lower load requirements. E.g., I don't think my heat pump water heater has ever exceeded one kW. When utilities get around to widespread demand charging, the money value of these devices will jump.

I have solar which has paid for itself so free electricity now but I still opt for energy efficiency and shun fossil fuels.
Sometimes this costs more but that's not the point.
Heat pump dryer is more expensive up front but I'm not a short term thinker.
Same with heat pump water heater, heating, insulation, EVs, induction range, etc.

 

[SageBrush]

I have solar which has paid for itself so free electricity now but I still opt for energy efficiency and shun fossil fuels.
Sometimes this costs more but that's not the point.

I also shun fossils, but even if my home PV covered 100% of my energy consumption I would still conserve, simply to provide clean energy to others*. It is this latter desire that prompts me to put money into the measures that have the highest green ROI. In the same vein, it also means that I favor public policy** that has the highest green ROI. Conservation is great, expensive conservation is a dead end as a means to combating pollution at scale.

* Consider $1000 spent for more PV you do not use, or the marginal cost increase to buy a heat pump dryer. The $1,000 might buy an extra 0.5 - 1 kW of PV, good for about 25 - 50 MWh of clean energy over its lifetime. The green dryer might conserve around 4 - 6 MWh if we presume proper recycling of the refrigerant -- and that can be a really big IF

** My actual preferred public policy is to stop externalizing the cost of carbon pollution, but that is not really on the table for now.

 

[nwdiver]

Stop burning stuff...

 

[mspohr]

Exponential adoption of battery electric cars

The adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) may significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions caused by road transport. However, there is wide disagreement as to how soon battery electric vehicles will play a major role in overall transportation. Focusing on battery electric passenger cars...

journals.plos.org

Focusing on battery electric passenger cars, we analyze BEV adoption across 17 individual countries, Europe, and the World, and consistently find exponential growth trends. Modeling-based estimates of future adoption given past trends suggest system-wide adoption substantially faster than typical economic analyses have proposed so far. For instance, we estimate the majority of passenger cars in Europe to be electric by about 2031. Within regions, the predicted times of mass adoption are largely insensitive to model details. Despite significant differences in current electric fleet sizes across regions, their growth rates consistently indicate fast doubling times of approximately 15 months, hinting at radical economic and infrastructural consequences in the near future.

Assuming that fundamental disruptions of the BECs adoption process are unlikely, and thus expecting the current trends to continue, we conclude that not only are battery electric cars currently adopted exponentially, they are highly likely to dominate the global passenger car fleet in the near future, less than a decade from today.

 

[David_Cary]

It was hard to decipher the math this early in the AM. But I do think we have to acknowledge that the USA has unique properties that limit the generalizations of other advanced economies to it. In other words, just because the people of Iceland, Norway et al show a logical adoption pattern, does not mean the US population will. We had a jump start on Europe and Europe has quickly surpassed us as far as EV penetration.

We had Tesla and Europe has surpassed us.

Some of this is geography and urban planning. But on the flip side, we have more garages and more modern housing and more single family housing.
I would argue that a lot of it is policy. If gas was $6 a gallon on the low side, we would be much further along. Europe has that.

But I think we know it is more than that. We have "rugged individualism", we have our own oil, we have climate change skepticism, fear of government mandates, and we have inconsistent public education as well as skepticism of institutions.

We have large corporations that have relatively more power. The power of them controls the minds of the electorate.
A lot of this is uniquely American and we should be proud.

On another trend, every other advanced economy (and most un-advanced) has continued to reduce traffic fatalities except the US. We are exceptional!

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It was hard to decipher the math this early in the AM. But I do think we have to acknowledge that the USA has unique properties that limit the generalizations of other advanced economies to it. In other words, just because the people of Iceland, Norway et al show a logical adoption pattern, does not mean the US population will. We had a jump start on Europe and Europe has quickly surpassed us as far as EV penetration.

We had Tesla and Europe has surpassed us.

Some of this is geography and urban planning. But on the flip side, we have more garages and more modern housing and more single family housing.
I would argue that a lot of it is policy. If gas was $6 a gallon on the low side, we would be much further along. Europe has that.

But I think we know it is more than that. We have "rugged individualism", we have our own oil, we have climate change skepticism, fear of government mandates, and we have inconsistent public education as well as skepticism of institutions.

We have large corporations that have relatively more power. The power of them controls the minds of the electorate.
A lot of this is uniquely American and we should be proud.

On another trend, every other advanced economy (and most un-advanced) has continued to reduce traffic fatalities except the US. We are exceptional!

Cost and geography. Ultimately, trusted individuals pass through the wall of misinformation, but the cost and geography are real and can only be overcome by improving the technology, manufacturing and infrastructure*.

* For example, it is 158.4 miles from Medway, ME to Madawaska, ME. Madawaska, ME is the most northern town in Maine, 2020 census population 3,867. Currently, in order to round trip there, you would either need good destination charging, or cross into Canada. And that's in a Tesla. If you have CCS only it's 215.4 miles from the closest CCS in Bangor, ME. 193.7 miles from the CCS in Calais, ME. There are chargers coming to help resolve this, but for the whole of the USA it's going to be a few years before NEVI and the Supercharger network really helps fill the holes.

 

[UkNorthampton]

It was hard to decipher the math this early in the AM. But I do think we have to acknowledge that the USA has unique properties that limit the generalizations of other advanced economies to it. In other words, just because the people of Iceland, Norway et al show a logical adoption pattern, does not mean the US population will. We had a jump start on Europe and Europe has quickly surpassed us as far as EV penetration.

We had Tesla and Europe has surpassed us.

Some of this is geography and urban planning. But on the flip side, we have more garages and more modern housing and more single family housing.
I would argue that a lot of it is policy. If gas was $6 a gallon on the low side, we would be much further along. Europe has that.

But I think we know it is more than that. We have "rugged individualism", we have our own oil, we have climate change skepticism, fear of government mandates, and we have inconsistent public education as well as skepticism of institutions.

We have large corporations that have relatively more power. The power of them controls the minds of the electorate.
A lot of this is uniquely American and we should be proud.

On another trend, every other advanced economy (and most un-advanced) has continued to reduce traffic fatalities except the US. We are exceptional!

I agree but population heatmaps of USA do suggest most people live in cities and don't drive too far except every now and again. Superchargers are important.

Views can change, infrastructure improves. When I lived in the (UK) country, getting fuel for a car meant driving a long way mainly for the purpose. Compare to charging at home, which is easier. Things have got worse in UK countryside, garages (fuel, fix car) have closed, next generation not interested in taking over family businesses, youngsters go to cities, infrastructure, shops, banks disappear. Working age population shrinks as a percentage. Getting fuel, servicing ICE cars becomes harder, more hassle and more expensive. If a car needs a part overnight or 2-3 days time, you can't just get a taxi home, it would costs a lot and often no taxis in rural areas. Low maintenance Teslas with mobile rangers help a lot.


Bits of USA have dodgy electricity supply. Those who enjoy self-sufficiency have solar, batteries & EVs for energy independence.


The idea that Europeans would buy large numbers of a USA built/designed car was farcical just a few years ago (mine Fremont, newer ones Chinese for Right Hand Drive, others have Berlin).

Most people want something reliable, low maintenance with some cachet/touch of luxury. A few people want something else, Cybertruck will meet some people's wants/needs.

EVs don't have to get to 80% straight away, but they will. As it switches over, ICE becomes harder, EVs become the logical and default choice.

By choice, I would drive to a family holiday destination such as Spain or Croatia rather than flying. Even Turkey, Morocco are doable (so that's Asia and Africa). Avoids flying, leads to the journey becoming part of the holiday, can take more stuff (babies etc).

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Views can change, infrastructure improves. When I lived in the (UK) country, getting fuel for a car meant driving a long way mainly for the purpose. Compare to charging at home, which is easier. Things have got worse in UK countryside, garages (fuel, fix car) have closed, next generation not interested in taking over family businesses, youngsters go to cities, infrastructure, shops, banks disappear. Working age population shrinks as a percentage. Getting fuel, servicing ICE cars becomes harder, more hassle and more expensive. If a car needs a part overnight or 2-3 days time, you can't just get a taxi home, it would costs a lot and often no taxis in rural areas. Low maintenance Teslas with mobile rangers help a lot.

I'd have thought that for most people there is an opportunity to refuel, whether that's as part of their weekday or weekend routine.

But overall there's a relatively easy response for ICEVs to fuel hassle: increase the fuel tank size. The bigger the range, the more probability you'll be passing by a petrol station before you _need_ to stop. Not an easy solution for current vehicles, but a solution for newer vehicles.