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Elon "About to end range anxiety"

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I said one charge. I asume you are leaving home with a charge. You can charge Harris ranch, and make it to Hawthorne. One charge.

Well that makes the math worse.

From home (with a charge) Id be charging at Harris AND Tejon Ranch to make it over the Grapevine and into Redondo....the only value there would be that I could actually drive at the speed of other traffic, only to have that all taken away with two charges being required. Getting through the Grapevine with that distance would be tough - the climb would make the motors pull some serious current. I think any way that you slice it, there are two charges required to comfortably make it into the OC from NorCal.
 
Nothing in the battery would add any additional energy, no. I've tested capacity on several modules and it is as expected.

No reserve batteries or anything hiding in there either. Hehe

The battery does indeed have additional modules made from nano tech so when the software upgrade comes out you can watch your battery grow. Then you will have 99999999999999999999999888888.11 miles of range! Use wisely ;)
 
My theory for what this update comprises is thus: a new mode of trip travel, that gives you a sliding scale of participation by the car in the way that you apply power to drive. This is a similar slider to NORMAL/INSANE, or COMFORT/NORMAL/SPORT, or RANGE ON/OFF etc. etc.. TRIP THROTTLE will have three modes:

FREE
This is the mode that all cars are in today. Once the car gives you a suggested route and points out the status of the battery at the end of your trip, it throws you to the lions - or - you are free to do anything you like, including beat its prediction, follow its advice, gun the car until you stop along the highway, and worry as much as you want about whether you will survive or not.

GUARD
A green dotted line on the power meter indicates a "suggested maximum accelerator power limit." It shows the suggested throttle setting that you should not exceed if you want to get to your trip destination with reasonable, small charge to spare. You are free to go above this if you want, but it will remove charge from the battery faster, and consequently, the green dotted line will fall a little bit. It will sound an alarm to warn you of the excess usage. If you drive carefully and conserve more than you need to, the green dotted line may rise up, allowing you to gun it later :)

LIMIT
The yellow dotted line that indicates "accelerator power limit" shows up, and prevents you from accelerating the car beyond a certain level of force. The position of the dotted line is exactly worked out to get you to the destination with reasonable, small charge to spare. The car will know about exceptionally steep uphill slopes along the route, and will allow temporary increases in power so as not to maroon you half way up the hill without enough accelerator power to get up it. If you do things to use up more charge, e.g. deviate from your route, elect to not maximise regen braking and so on, the yellow line may fall. If you conserve and regen as much as possible, the yellow line may rise. If the temperature drops, or weather turns against you and you have to use more power to proceed along the road, the computer will notice this (by examining throttle and road speed) and further limit the amount of accelerative force you can apply - but it will still enable the car to move.

In GUARD and LIMIT modes, you can use your heater and wipers, etc. as much as you want, and the computer will adjust the dotted line and/or change the amount of acceleration you will get. For example if it calculates that you should use no more than (say) 89W/mile to get to your destination, but the heater and wipers are using 7W, then it will only make 82W available to the motor - the end result being that 89W is still the maximum being used up. Savvy drivers will know to leave the HVAC off if battery charge is precious.

It's my opinion that the LIMIT mode would improve things enough to where you generally don't worry about range any more - and thus, Elon's goal is met. The car basically won't accelerate very quickly if you started a journey without enough battery charge to be able to gun it! That's your choice. But in order to get to your destination, the car might have to take some choice away from you.
 
Has to be supercharging for everyone as standard. Or something else significant.
A navigation update doesn't seem significant enough for a press conference.
Almost everyone has supercharging as standard so I don't see how that would be significant. 60s are a small percentage of sales. 60s without supercharging is an even smaller percentage of all the Model S out there.
 
About the whole navigation issue. The navigation that is tied to the tech package and that everyone has right now is from a third party. It's not Tesla's navigation which probably places some limits on it. Tesla probably felt the need to tie it to the tech package because they have to pay for it and it's probably not cheap. Tesla tends to eschew buying components and software from third parties. See the various articles about teardowns of the dash and their ability to update software. But this navigation system has been one place that has been from a third party so far. My bet would be that Tesla did that because they felt they couldn't get away without turn by turn navigation that worked with the car couldn't get 3G.

On top of the above the existing navigation system is fairly limited. It can't do multiple way points. It can't navigate through super chargers. It can't avoid highways, toll roads or even let you choose from multiple routes. It has a slow and long delayed update process. There are a whole lot of complaints about the limitations of the system. Time has passed and maybe Tesla hasn't resolved these issues because Tesla has been replacing the navigation with something they have built in house. Imagine that they built their own navigation system with mapping data bought from Google. Something that could do all the missing features and can be updated regularly as Tesla likes to do.

Now imagine if Tesla just rolls that out to everyone (even people without the tech package) and along with it is trip planning that can handle figuring out how to get you from point A to point B including finding the best possible charging points. I don't see a whole lot of reason this isn't possible and it could explain why there hasn't been a lot of movement on the common complaints about the navigation software. The trip prediction software we got in 6.1 may have just been an initial roll-out of some of the features of this software, possibly to test the predictions and improve them so that it would be exceedingly rare that it predicted incorrectly.

In short I think it's possible that the navigation software we have today is being replaced entirely by something written by Tesla from scratch that is far more capable.
 
6.1 Made Me Anxious

I'll admit to a little bit of range-anxiety on a road trip ~two years ago (while I was learning the car, and when SC's were much fewer and further apart), but I haven't had any range anxiety since. UNTIL a couple of weeks ago, when I was driving from Palm Springs to Santa Monica. Ironically, the only reason I had any anxiety was because of the 6.1 adaptive prediction.

I started with 160 miles of range, and the drive was to be about 130 miles. Plenty of buffer. But as I left Palm Springs, driving ~75mph with traffic, climbing the hill, and into the wind, I was using more power than the car expected for the first 30 miles or so. As such, it started giving me ominous warnings to slow down so I'd reach my destination. It went from predicting an arrival charge of 13% down to 5%, which is too close for comfort considering potential downtown LA traffic. So I stopped at the Cabazon SC to relieve my anxiety (and, yes, my bladder).

I ended up using less energy for the rest of the drive than the original prediction, and would have probably ended up with about a 15% charge had I not stopped to top-off.

It wasn't a big deal -- I didn't mind the stop. But the point is that I let the software -- with its conservative (and inaccurate) prediction -- trump my own experience with the car. Had this been before 6.1, I wouldn't have stopped at the SC, and I would have made it home just fine, with no anxiety.

So I hope if this new OTA update has to do with changing the Nav and range predirection, it makes it far more accurate, useful, and less paranoid. :)
 
About the whole navigation issue. The navigation that is tied to the tech package and that everyone has right now is from a third party. It's not Tesla's navigation which probably places some limits on it. Tesla probably felt the need to tie it to the tech package because they have to pay for it and it's probably not cheap. Tesla tends to eschew buying components and software from third parties. See the various articles about teardowns of the dash and their ability to update software. But this navigation system has been one place that has been from a third party so far. My bet would be that Tesla did that because they felt they couldn't get away without turn by turn navigation that worked with the car couldn't get 3G.

On top of the above the existing navigation system is fairly limited. It can't do multiple way points. It can't navigate through super chargers. It can't avoid highways, toll roads or even let you choose from multiple routes. It has a slow and long delayed update process. There are a whole lot of complaints about the limitations of the system. Time has passed and maybe Tesla hasn't resolved these issues because Tesla has been replacing the navigation with something they have built in house. Imagine that they built their own navigation system with mapping data bought from Google. Something that could do all the missing features and can be updated regularly as Tesla likes to do.

Now imagine if Tesla just rolls that out to everyone (even people without the tech package) and along with it is trip planning that can handle figuring out how to get you from point A to point B including finding the best possible charging points. I don't see a whole lot of reason this isn't possible and it could explain why there hasn't been a lot of movement on the common complaints about the navigation software. The trip prediction software we got in 6.1 may have just been an initial roll-out of some of the features of this software, possibly to test the predictions and improve them so that it would be exceedingly rare that it predicted incorrectly.

In short I think it's possible that the navigation software we have today is being replaced entirely by something written by Tesla from scratch that is far more capable.

Can someone clarify what is the level of navigation you now get standardly vs what you get with the tech package? The Design Studio shows Navigation as a standard feature or am I mistaken?

Navigation2.PNG


Navigation.PNG
 
Can someone clarify what is the level of navigation you now get standardly vs what you get with the tech package? The Design Studio shows Navigation as a standard feature or am I mistaken?

You're not mistaken and I meant to explain that they just recently moved it into standard for everyone. I don't think anyone has the answer to this question because I don't think anyone has received a delivery of a car ordered since this change has happened. I see this change as more evidence towards my view that they're going to replace the navigation software we have now with something they wrote.
 
You forgot (5) Even faster supercharging; recharging time to come down to virtual parity with refill at gas station. I'll quote SteveS03 here: Tesla engineers "realized that they can get more energy into the battery much more quickly without risking the longevity of the battery pack. Perhaps the OTA software upgrade could be to remove or significantly modify the taper in the charge characteristic, and increase the amount of power the Supercharger can dump into the battery" .

Thanks for referencing me. I have another whack at justifying my WAG (wild-ass guess)...

Holding a press conference is a key component of the tweet. Navigation updates have happened in the past without a press conference, and Tesla will continue to release them, making better energy predictions. Torque sleep, or duty cycling the motor(s), might eek out a few % efficiency improvement and increase range a bit, and these will happen over time too, but are not worthy of a press conference.

Frankly, ending range anxiety is not about adding more range - all cars, ICEs included, have a range, and drivers can get anxious when nearing it. ICE drivers mitigate that risk with the plethora of gas stations around the world, filling up quickly. The largest issue with EVs right now is two-fold -- it takes far longer to replenish charge than filling an ICE gas tank, and the charging infrastructure is in its infancy, so there are not too many places to charge. To end range anxiety and make the EV charging experience closer to the ICE fueling experience, you have to tackle two things...

  • Much faster charging; and
  • Many more places to charge.
Now, a press conference is aimed at a very wide audience, media, analysts, potential buyers, and us, the faithful. Announcing a partnership with a large multinational chain which has convenient sites around the world to place a Supercharger (even 1 or 2 pedestals), is certainly worthy of a press conference. If Tesla engineers have mined the enormous amount of data they have collected on the Model S battery system and concluded they can dump far more energy into the battery more quickly, thus shortening the charging experience, they can address both aspects of the charging experience with one stroke. Now that's definitely worthy of a press conference.

Further food for thought ... the Model 3 in Elon's forecast volumes could quickly overwhelm the present and planned Supercharger infrastructure without a major disruption. Potential Model 3 buyers would be most concerned about the ability to use the car like they do their ICE cars now. I'll wager this could quench demand. Connecting the dots, this disruption could be what Elon hinted was "the demand secret weapon", in the lead up to Model 3 release.
 
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At the end of the day I'm left wondering what would be the justification for a news conference? Would Elon call a news conference for a Maps feature/update? I don't think so. Anything strictly software related could be handled in a press release. Significant changes in functionality would require changes in hardware, firmware and software. It's going to be interesting.
 
At the end of the day I'm left wondering what would be the justification for a news conference? Would Elon call a news conference for a Maps feature/update? I don't think so. Anything strictly software related could be handled in a press release. Significant changes in functionality would require changes in hardware, firmware and software. It's going to be interesting.

Tweeting some very small notion about what is about to be announced and then holding a press conference a few days later is a very good way of driving the press to write articles about what he says. So if he wants to get this message in front of a lot of people even if it seems like insignificant change to us it's worth it to Elon. We aren't the audience.
 
Presser bcause 3 point plan:

-nav features
-small range increase via tweaks
-partnership program to triple number of superchargers within a year including anchor US partner

not all features apply to entire fleet immediately, but entire fleet gets something.
 
My guess is the software update will allow all cars to access DC fast charging with a kW limit for those that did not buy the Supercharger option. There will soon be thousands of DC fast chargers installed and Teslas can't use any of them unless they have the adaptor and the supercharging option.
 
I think it'll be about the fact that Tesla has accumulated a Big Data dataset of every route mile that every Model S owner has ever driven in every type of weather and traffic. This means that the car's nav energy predictions for a destination are very, very accurate and Tesla will be able to guarantee you'll get to your destination following the route guidance. By definition, that's the end of range anxiety.
 
Well, the only thing I'm reasonably certain about is that an OTA update is not going to add any significant amount of range. There just isn't much room for improvement there. As others have mentioned, even adding 20 miles (not possible, IMO) isn't going to eliminate range anxiety.

It was specifically said "About to end range anxiety ... via OTA software update. Now, I don't know about you, but I don't think any partnership with McDonalds or WalMart or similar is going to happen via an OTA software update. Seems impossible, also, unless the board of directors of those companies are AI and can be influenced via OTA updates... lol

At this point the only logical thing I can think of would be significant improvements to the navigation setup, as has already been mentioned by Musk at other times in the past.

While the statement of being able to "end range anxiety" might seem a bit over the top for such an update, I still think this is probably it. My money is on v6.2 next week with nav improvements.