Elon Confirms S & X Are Chopped Liver

[john85775]

Relevant -- on this week's Ride the Lightning Tesla Podcast at ~55:00 there is discussion related to the same comments from the investor call:

"This reminded me of something that a Tesla employee told me a year ago.... there was serious consideration within Tesla to killing the Model S."

 

[J=oE]

Not sure what you mean by that. Toyota sold about 2 million cars in the US last year, Lexus about 300,000 and the luxury brand is no less for the smaller volume. What seems different is that Tesla starts innovation in the larger volume product. IMO when it no longer makes financial sense to retool/redesign S and X to incorporate the new tech they will just stop making them. I don’t doubt that there will eventually be a diverse product line with 100,000 Roadsters, a few hundred thousand luxury cars, and a few million 3/Y but the dfficult-to-manufacture S and X of today will not be part of that future.

I agree with GWagon and point to this call and note that the important audience are the investors. Elon is focusing on the future income giants for Tesla. Having passionate customers on theses calls is a distraction, although it makes for great threads! Tesla has growth expenses which are out of proportion with conventional automakers. 93,000 cars delivered last quarter and still over $400M in losses. In an investor meeting he had better focus on the models which will continue to push toward the black the fastest and marginalize conversations of low margin endeavors. IMO they will keep the halo customers happy but (love my 90D S) focus must be on company heath in investor meetings.

 

[Apoztel]

Does anyone else feel the lack of 'model year' change is hurting? I understand sales will fall for the old model once the new model comes out but, at least at that point major changes will be locked in for at least a year. I see so many posts of people waiting for the interior refresh that may or may not be even coming. At least in a yearly change, when the new one comes out you could buy and not have to worry that next week you'll have an outdated car. Then prices for the newer ones can stay somewhat steady and the old inventory can have the 'blowout sale' prices.

I think this is true to some extent for used shoppers, but not sure if it matters to new buyers. It makes shopping and pricing a used Tesla very difficult. Which is why you’ll see the same S or X listed for months.

 

[TIppy]

Definitely not feeling the love. On my previous two performance Ss, production started two to three days after placing my order, and it took about three days to build. Then it was five days to ship to Florida, so I would have my car in ten or eleven days. This was when they were quoting four to six weeks for deliveries. Now it has been two weeks since placing my order, and they haven't even started production. Priorities change. Poor me.

 

[jboy210]

Definitely not feeling the love. On my previous two performance Ss, production started two to three days after placing my order, and it took about three days to build. Then it was five days to ship to Florida, so I would have my car in ten or eleven days. This was when they were quoting four to six weeks for deliveries. Now it has been two weeks since placing my order, and they haven't even started production. Priorities change. Poor me.

Ordered my 75X in Feb 2018. Received May 30 2018. Was told the reason was they build cars in batches for different markets. EU, US/Canada, Asia, UK (RHS), etc

 

[Stealth.Pilot]

I agree with GWagon and point to this call and note that the important audience are the investors. Elon is focusing on the future income giants for Tesla. Having passionate customers on theses calls is a distraction, although it makes for great threads! Tesla has growth expenses which are out of proportion with conventional automakers. 93,000 cars delivered last quarter and still over $400M in losses. In an investor meeting he had better focus on the models which will continue to push toward the black the fastest and marginalize conversations of low margin endeavors. IMO they will keep the halo customers happy but (love my 90D S) focus must be on company heath in investor meetings.

By this logic though they should refresh the Model X and even the S before building a new roadster. The roadster will be the lowest volume car of them all, and building an entire new model takes a lot more R&D then doing a restyling of the X and S.

When Mercedes launches a revised model they have a new floorpan, new transmission, new suspension, etc. Tesla doesn't need all that. Just new body and interior would do it for the S. For the X maybe just a new interior and a refresh for the front and rear end styling.

 

[wooter]

Since the Model X is only 3 years old, I'd be surprised if there would be a new model. Models in this class only get a facelift after 4-5 years, and only get a full refresh after 7-8 years.

That makes the only car eligible for a refresh the Model S, this or next year. And the Model X a facelift next year. This by classic manufacturer's standards...

 

[wooter]

Ordered my 75X in Feb 2018. Received May 30 2018. Was told the reason was they build cars in batches for different markets. EU, US/Canada, Asia, UK (RHS), etc

Indeed, beginning of the quarter is the batch for cars sold overseas, end of quarter is for cars in the US, to maximise cars sold in a quarter. Cars sold overseas spend more time in transit.

 

[TIppy]

Indeed, beginning of the quarter is the batch for cars sold overseas, end of quarter is for cars in the US, to maximise cars sold in a quarter. Cars sold overseas spend more time in transit.

Yes, but I ordered my last ludicrous exactly three years ago, and it only took ten days to get it. So its not a quarterly thing. I got the impression that fools like me who pay 10 or 20 thousand dollars for a software switch were moved up in the queue to maximize their cash flow. Besides, when I placed my order this time they estimated delivery in less than two weeks. Its been that long and they have not even started production. They don't write; they don't call; they don't send flowers.

 

[RDoc]

By this logic though they should refresh the Model X and even the S before building a new roadster. The roadster will be the lowest volume car of them all, and building an entire new model takes a lot more R&D then doing a restyling of the X and S.

Yeah, I've been wondering about this too. Building the Roadster and all the R&D and tooling required for it seems a bit crazy. There's no way it's going to pay back the development cost for years. If they actually do build it, I'm afraid it's going to be just another Elon error like the Falcon Wing Doors or the Solar City purchase.

 

[robby]

Elon's addressed that a few times. They aren't building the Roadster 2.0 to make money. They're building it so that the world's quickest production car is electric and blows every ICE contender out of the water.

 

[jaguar36]

Yeah, I've been wondering about this too. Building the Roadster and all the R&D and tooling required for it seems a bit crazy. There's no way it's going to pay back the development cost for years. If they actually do build it, I'm afraid it's going to be just another Elon error like the Falcon Wing Doors or the Solar City purchase.

The roadster will be a small production run, mostly handbuilt. That's a huge difference from the S/X which are mass production vehicles. The amount of development and tooling needed for the roadster will be much less than what Tesla should spend on an S redesign. Although who how many corners Tesla cuts on their testing who knows.

 

[Lindamon]

Yes, but I ordered my last ludicrous exactly three years ago, and it only took ten days to get it. So its not a quarterly thing. I got the impression that fools like me who pay 10 or 20 thousand dollars for a software switch were moved up in the queue to maximize their cash flow. Besides, when I placed my order this time they estimated delivery in less than two weeks. Its been that long and they have not even started production. They don't write; they don't call; they don't send flowers.

I ordered my new Performance X on the 16th of July, the same day they dropped the 20K upcharge for Ludicrous, and it is in West Palm Beach as of yesterday, I’m picking it up Thursday. I called the West Palm office a week ago because I hadn’t heard anything, and wanted the vin for insurance purposes. They gave me the vin and told me the car was in production. I still didn’t hear anything from Tesla until I received a text last Friday that the car was in transit and I needed to set a delivery date.

Another poster here who ordered on the 16th still hasn’t heard a thing. He lives in the midwest. He has also called his local distributor with no result.. As far as I can tell there isn’t any rhyme or reason to their production schedule.

Edit: I just checked, and he finally got his vin yesterday.

 

[john85775]

As Tesla reduces its options and combinations, many have speculated there is no more build-to-order but rather a process of matching an order with a build.

 

[Lindamon]

As Tesla reduces its options and combinations, many have speculated there is no more build-to-order but rather a process of matching an order with a build.

Could be. Maybe five days after I ordered, I saw a new Performance X for sale in Tampa with all of my options save the upgraded 20” wheels, I was debating whether to cancel my order and get that one, and thought about it for a day or two, and by then the car disappeared from the website. As a matter of fact, all the X’s available (4 or 5) in the area disappeared. So maybe they just popped some new wheels on it and trucked it across the state..

 

[john85775]

The inventory cars shown on the website (particularly the new ones) are notoriously out of date. It's more common to see one that is already sold/gone than otherwise. My DS and OA have flat out said to ignore what you see there, and you'll conversely get links to inventory VINs that are not shown on the site yet exist in inventory.

It seems like it is intentional, but I'd bet it's just technical debt on Tesla's platforms.

 

[Lindamon]

The inventory cars shown on the website (particularly the new ones) are notoriously out of date. It's more common to see one that is already sold/gone than otherwise. My DS and OA have flat out said to ignore what you see there, and you'll conversely get links to inventory VINs that are not shown on the site yet exist in inventory.

It seems like it is intentional, but I'd bet it's just technical debt on Tesla's platforms.

Yes, after I thought about it, I went to the Google doc sheet on MX orders, and compared my vin to others who ordered on or around the 16th, mine was right in the mix with others, and I believe my vin would be too high to have been an inventory car.

 

[tomas]

Elon's addressed that a few times. They aren't building the Roadster 2.0 to make money. They're building it so that the world's quickest production car is electric and blows every ICE contender out of the water.

Yep. One thing we’ve got to remember is that Tesla does not do conventional advertising. They try to attract attention in other ways. Roadster is a big advertisement. If you compare to most competitors’ advertising budgets, I’ll bet it is small change.

 

[bob_p]

Roadster 2.0 is a "prestige" model - that won't have a bottom-line impact on profitability. It's only a demonstration of the potential for EV performance, and likely has a relatively small team designing and building a limited number of those vehicles.

To survive, Tesla must achieve sustainable profitability - and that's going to come from the higher volume 3/Y/pickup models - plus the higher margin semi trucks.

At least for now, from a business perspective, major investments in S/X would be a net negative, because they are decreasingly smaller portion of the overall revenue stream, as Musk continues with the Master Plan of shifting to much higher volume vehicles.

That doesn't mean we won't see changes in S/X. We're likely to see some interior improvements as they streamline manufacturing and shift to using more common components (especially between S/X). And when FSD is within reach, would expect to see some additional interior changes as the focus shifts away from the driver to driverless vehicles and entertaining the passengers.

S/X still have value in Tesla's overall product line - just not a priority for any major changes right now that wouldn't help in achieving Tesla's profitability goals...

And as an owner of a 2017 S and 2018 X, we're fine with that. Even though the 3 (and Y) have some advantages (such as V3 supercharging) not present in S/X today, if we were going to purchase another vehicle today - we'd probably still buy an S/X because we prefer the larger capacity of those vehicles...

 

[CarlK]

Imo it will not be just some facelift or new interior. It will have to be an entirely new model. There have been so many new technologies developed, especially in the manufacturability perspective, since the first Model S was designed almost a decade ago. Tesla likely will do it eventually, it's still a very desirable market segment to be in, but doing that will require a lot ot resources and Tesla wants to put them into other models with more mass appeal first. A curve ball is there is also a small possibility it will just kill off the model and replace it with an entirely new flagship model that fits more with the future FSD implementation. Tesla is always forward thinking. "Refreshing" is so traditional.