Elon: FSD Beta tweets

[EVNow]

I think the NYC example is a great counterfactual to this argument.

On average NYC parking is >$500 a month. JUST for parking.

If THAT isn't discouraging car ownership I'm not sure "saving $50 on an annual oil change" will.

But it does .... infact only places where people tend to use mass transit are those where the parking is exorbitant - NYC, San Francisco ....

 

[qdeathstar]

If you kind in nyc you got it tho

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It's never going to happen in the US because there too many interests against it. For one, Americans love our cars too much. We value too much the freedom that comes from owning a car and being able to go anywhere we want, anytime we want. Big cities have mass transit because there is limited space in cities that makes owning a car more difficult. But the vast majority of people live outside of city centers and they depend heavily on cars to go places. And of course automakers base their entire business model on our love of personal car ownership so they have every business interest to not get rid of cars. On a side note, this is why I believe Elon is full of BS when he says Tesla will stop selling cars once FSD is solved. Yeah right. Tesla will continue to sell cars because people love owning cars and it will continue to be a big money maker for Tesla. Tesla would be dumb to get rid of that source of income.

They're already doing leases with no buyout. That's a 3-year rental.

People like having a personal car so that they can just get in and drive, and not worry about leaving their crap in it. That's not the same as loving _owning_ a car.

 

[EVNow]

People like having a personal car so that they can just get in and drive, and not worry about leaving their crap in it. That's not the same as loving _owning_ a car.

*some* people do.

Used to be that people also liked "owning" movies and CDs. Some people still do - but vast majority have switched.

ps : Fewer people are getting licenses and later.

Infographic: Americans Get Driver's Licenses Later in Life

This chart shows the percentage of the U.S. population holding a driver's license, by age group (1983, 2008, 2018).

www.statista.com

American teens are less keen to get behind the wheel once they come of age. According to numbers from the Federal Highway Administration analyzed by news website Green Car Congress, only approximately 61 percent of 18-year-olds in the U.S. had a driver’s license in 2018, compared to 80.4 percent in 1983. While age restrictions vary by state and not all 16-year-olds can be license holders, the number of 16-year-old licensed drivers has also significantly decreased from 46.2 percent in 1983 to 25.6 percent in 2018.​

​

Despite the holdups, the number of older adults holding a driver’s license in the U.S. has not decreased significantly. In 1983, 94.9 percent of 35-39-year-olds had a license, compared with 90.9 percent in 2018.​

 

[terranx]

*some* people do.

Used to be that people also liked "owning" movies and CDs. Some people still do - but vast majority have switched.

The bigger barrier is retaining the freedom to go wherever you want whenever you want. The transition to streaming has largely kept the ability to watch anything you want at any time. The transition to public transportation does not achieve that. Robotaxis (which realistically won't exist in any real capacity for at least a decade if I'm being optimistic) won't achieve that unless there's a huge number of cars out there that can serve the purpose for less than the cost of owning a car (which doesn't necessarily have to be a Tesla). In which case one would have to question how profitable they will actually be.

 

[sleepydoc]

*some* people do.

Used to be that people also liked "owning" movies and CDs. Some people still do - but vast majority have switched.

Cars mean different things to different people. For some, they are strictly a utilitarian mode of transportation, for others they are works of art, a hobby or a means of personal expression. (And for some they are a trash can.) People’s expectations and desires for a car are different, too. The diversity of attitudes, needs and goals mean any single model will not universally succeed.

 

[EVNow]

The bigger barrier is retaining the freedom to go wherever you want whenever you want. The transition to streaming has largely kept the ability to watch anything you want at any time. The transition to public transportation does not achieve that. Robotaxis (which realistically won't exist in any real capacity for at least a decade if I'm being optimistic) won't achieve that unless there's a huge number of cars out there that can serve the purpose for less than the cost of owning a car (which doesn't necessarily have to be a Tesla). In which case one would have to question how profitable they will actually be.

Ofcourse - mass transit is difficult in US because of various reasons. Robotaxi has a better chance of taking hold since people already use taxis (and uber etc) a lot. Initially it will be a mix of Uber & robotaxi - and gradually replaced by robotaxis entirely.

ps : The replacement will be generational. People who have cars will not all sell and start using robotaxis. More like, when they need to buy a new car they will make an assessment as to whether it is better to buy a new car or just use robotaxis. And people with multiple cars switch to owning just one car. Younger folks will not buy a car at all ... and get used to just using robotaxis.

 

[jabloomf1230]

But it does .... infact only places where people tend to use mass transit are those where the parking is exorbitant - NYC, San Francisco ....

I don't know about SF, but the reason people take mass transit in NYC is that car ownership is relatively low. And it's not just because of parking. It has more to do with the immense reach of the subway system. There are 78 cars per 100 residents in urban areas of the US. But there are only 23 cars per hundred residents in NYC.

NYC has the only world class commuter heavy rail system in the US. It has more than 10x the ridership and double the system length of the next biggest US system. Basically, the US has virtually no mass transit and vehicle traffic problems will continue to spiral out of control.

 

[EVNow]

I don't know about SF, but the reason people take mass transit in NYC is that car ownership is relatively low. And it's not just because of parking. It has more to do with the immense reach of the subway system. There are 78 cars per 100 residents in urban areas of the US. But there are only 23 cars per hundred residents in NYC.

Its like chicken and egg. Did low ownership come first or decent mass transit & high parking fees

Few people drive to downtown San Francisco. They use BART (or Uber/Lyft) ....

 

[jabloomf1230]

In NYC, decent mass transit came first. Google "NYC subway map 1920s" and you'll see that the system was complex almost 100 years ago.

 

[Knightshade]

FWIW San Francisco car ownership rate is just over 70%... which while lower than national average is hardly "nobody has a car here" rates.

Every city with a lower rate of ownership is in the northeast US-and most of THOSE are either NYC, or towns adjacent to NYC (newark, jersey city, etc)

The only others are DC at about 63% and Boston/Cambridge around 67%.

So basically outside of NYC itself, the majority of people own cars regardless of being in an expensive to park city and regardless of available mass transit.... and it averages to more than 80% per capita nationally

In NYC, decent mass transit came first. Google "NYC subway map 1920s" and you'll see that the system was complex almost 100 years ago.

Would be a nice segue to the popular conspiracy theory that GM bought up/killed off electric street car lines in favor of gasoline busses and cars

 

[EVNow]

So basically outside of NYC itself, the majority of people own cars regardless of being in an expensive to park city and regardless of available mass transit.... and nationally it's more than 4 out of every 5 that own one.

Yes, everyone (above a certain age) in my company in San Francisco own cars and everyone (used to) go downtown using mass transit, because of expensive parking and difficult traffic.

In one of our team meetings someone asked - how many of you have a license. I was surprised fewer than 50% had license at all.

That is why I think it is generational - ownership will rapidly go down in each generation. It won't happen in 5 or 10 years ....

Cars mean different things to different people. For some, they are strictly a utilitarian mode of transportation, for others they are works of art, a hobby or a means of personal expression. (And for some they are a trash can.) People’s expectations and desires for a car are different, too. The diversity of attitudes, needs and goals mean any single model will not universally succeed.

Not different from lot of other hobbies. How many here have tube/vinyl equipment for their dedicated 2-ch music system ?

 

[Terminator857]

Are there any discussions on moving from a car based society to more public transit? In most of Europe, banning cars from city centres is a hot topic.

Agree it works well in U.S. also. I believe in Mountain View CA, permanently banned cars in main downtown street. This Bay Area city plans to ban cars, expand outdoor dining for good along its ‘crown jewel’
But this isn't about public transportation. It is more about prioritizing pedestrians and non car traffic.

 

[EVNow]

… or probably not.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1500336079458627585

 

[ThomasD]

So how do you convince towns and suburbs to offer or expand mass transit? Can you convince two towns with a combined population of just over 50,000 people to greatly expand their mass transit service area?

 

[Mardak]

… or probably not.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1500336079458627585

Sounds like 10.12 did get released internally yesterday, so following previous schedule of releases:

1. Tuesday: Autopilot team testers
2. Wednesday: employees get it + minor fixes -- there used to be 2 vehicles on Teslascope but no longer due to the security/token purge
3. Thursday: early beta, e.g., original FSD Beta before the button -- seems to be 3 vehicles on TeslaFi in this group now
4. Friday: wide beta

 

[momo3605]

Sounds like 10.12 did get released internally yesterday, so following previous schedule of releases:

1. Tuesday: Autopilot team testers
2. Wednesday: employees get it + minor fixes -- there used to be 2 vehicles on Teslascope but no longer due to the security/token purge
3. Thursday: early beta, e.g., original FSD Beta before the button -- seems to be 3 vehicles on TeslaFi in this group now
4. Friday: wide beta

How do you know it was released internally on Tuesday?

 

[Sigma4Life]

Sounds like 10.12 did get released internally yesterday, so following previous schedule of releases:

1. Tuesday: Autopilot team testers
2. Wednesday: employees get it + minor fixes -- there used to be 2 vehicles on Teslascope but no longer due to the security/token purge
3. Thursday: early beta, e.g., original FSD Beta before the button -- seems to be 3 vehicles on TeslaFi in this group now
4. Friday: wide beta

How do you know it was released internally on Tuesday?

I’d like to know how you were able to confirm this as well.

 

[EVNow]

This guy has some AP team contact …

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501379497437847557

https://twitter.com/x/status/1501632937116192771

 

[sleepydoc]

… or probably not.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1500336079458627585

to be fair, he didn't say which Tuesday...