Elon: FSD Beta tweets

[jabloomf1230]

Give up on windshield wiper magic software that is crap by just using the $1 sensor an

You do realize that most high end cars use a camera mounted in the rear view mirror housing just like Tesla does. The difference is that most cars also include an IR emitting LED and the camera measures how much beam scattering is caused by rain on the windshield. Tesla just uses one of the front vision cameras to estimate rain rate.

 

[dramsey]

You do realize that most high end cars use a camera mounted in the rear view mirror housing just like Tesla does. The difference is that most cars also include an IR emitting LED and the camera measures how much beam scattering is caused by rain on the windshield. Tesla just uses one of the front vision cameras to estimate rain rate.

And it does a crappy job; my 2013 Mod S had a dedicated rain sensor and the auto wipers were _much_ better than the vision based system on my 2016. Additionally, the new system is all but useless on poorly lit roads at night.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I disagree with him.

Peak traffic is rush hour. Economics would significantly increase the average number of people per vehicle at peak. Likely both in 4-person and 10-person vehicles.

In addition, a lot of traffic in cities is created by parking. Sometimes an estimate of 30%. With autonomous vehicles only stopping for boarding and beboarding, and with municipalities likely to respond positively to help the use of taxis and other shared transportation you'll have zones created to smooth it out.

Plus, I think if we have autonomy, autonomous vehicles will ultimately behave better than humans.

I think more miles, but lower peak volume.

Whenever we analyze something Elon says we have to see it from his perspective.

His perspective is personal ownership of autonomous vehicles where it's our own autonomous vehicle or a fleet vehicle that is like a standard UberX ride.

That means more traffic as people are either chauffeured in their own car where its going to take up a parking space somewhere or its going to add additional traffic as the car comes to get someone. It's also going to cause a lot of traffic at store entrances where lots of people are going to be getting out or into their vehicles.

Studies have shown that Uber added to the traffic and didn't decrease it, and the uber pool share of total rides is only around 20%.

The other aspect that's going to really push up traffic is people commuting from longer distances in order to afford housing.

I already spend the first 30min to an hour of my workday at home with emails, teams, etc. I could easily do that from my car as my car drove me to work. Even before autonomous cars are a thing I might buy some land in a more beautiful rural area.

Energy costs will also factor in and autonomous vehicles will most likely be EV's and this allows owners to have more control over the cost. If energy gets expensive I can add solar to my house.

Now I do hope that this sort of thing isn't what actually happens. I hope to see a lot of autonomous shuttles that are optimized for where people are going, and people adapt to riding in them with strangers.

 

[drtimhill]

Whenever we analyze something Elon says we have to see it from his perspective.

His perspective is personal ownership of autonomous vehicles where it's our own autonomous vehicle or a fleet vehicle that is like a standard UberX ride.

That means more traffic as people are either chauffeured in their own car where its going to take up a parking space somewhere or its going to add additional traffic as the car comes to get someone. It's also going to cause a lot of traffic at store entrances where lots of people are going to be getting out or into their vehicles.

Studies have shown that Uber added to the traffic and didn't decrease it, and the uber pool share of total rides is only around 20%.

The other aspect that's going to really push up traffic is people commuting from longer distances in order to afford housing.

I already spend the first 30min to an hour of my workday at home with emails, teams, etc. I could easily do that from my car as my car drove me to work. Even before autonomous cars are a thing I might buy some land in a more beautiful rural area.

Energy costs will also factor in and autonomous vehicles will most likely be EV's and this allows owners to have more control over the cost. If energy gets expensive I can add solar to my house.

Now I do hope that this sort of thing isn't what actually happens. I hope to see a lot of autonomous shuttles that are optimized for where people are going, and people adapt to riding in them with strangers.

Meanwhile those who can work from home are switching to a more or less permanent work from home model, making commute issues irrelevant (I'm asserting here that anyone who thinks post-COVID is going to be business as usual is delusional).

 

[Knightshade]

Whenever we analyze something Elon says we have to see it from his perspective.

His perspective is personal ownership of autonomous vehicles where it's our own autonomous vehicle or a fleet vehicle that is like a standard UberX ride.

That means more traffic as people are either chauffeured in their own car where its going to take up a parking space somewhere or its going to add additional traffic as the car comes to get someone. It's also going to cause a lot of traffic at store entrances where lots of people are going to be getting out or into their vehicles.

Studies have shown that Uber added to the traffic and didn't decrease it, and the uber pool share of total rides is only around 20%.

The other aspect that's going to really push up traffic is people commuting from longer distances in order to afford housing.

And on top of that you'll get some % who had otherwise had to stop driving (age, eyesight, physical disability, etc) now going back to taking up space on roads far more often if they can get back all the autonomy of personal vehicle ownership without having to do the driving. It all adds up to more traffic than now- but since that time is suddenly freed up to be useful it's a net positive (on top of the lower accident rates)

 

[aronth5]

Whenever we analyze something Elon says we have to see it from his perspective.

His perspective is personal ownership of autonomous vehicles where it's our own autonomous vehicle or a fleet vehicle that is like a standard UberX ride.

I already spend the first 30min to an hour of my workday at home with emails, teams, etc. I could easily do that from my car as my car drove me to work. Even before autonomous cars are a thing I might buy some land in a more beautiful rural area.

The proponents of Robotaxi and driverless cars often times fail to appreciate how much value FSD will have for owners who can be productive while sitting in the drivers seat. @S4RXTSTCS usage model is a great example that can drive significant FSD revenue for Tesla and should be much easier to get regulatory approval for then any driverless FSD business model since the technical challenges are less. Not sure why this doesn't get more traction and visibility by everyone. I guess Robotaxi services are just sexier.

 

[diplomat33]

The proponents of Robotaxi and driverless cars often times fail to appreciate how much value FSD will have for owners who can be productive while sitting in the drivers seat. @S4RXTSTCS usage model is a great example that can drive significant FSD revenue for Tesla and should be much easier to get regulatory approval for then any driverless FSD business model since the technical challenges are less. Not sure why this doesn't get more traction and visibility by everyone. I guess Robotaxi services are just sexier.

I don't think anyone underestimates the value. It's just that "FSD" that requires driver supervision is essentially a very fancy driver assist. It might be great and have huge value but it's not a robotaxi or a driverless car. And proponents of robotaxis and driverless cars are focused on robotaxis and driverless cars. They are not focused on driver assist technology.

 

[Terminator857]

The proponents of Robotaxi and driverless cars often times fail to appreciate how much value FSD will have for owners who can be productive while sitting in the drivers seat. ...

A lot of dreams for something that is many years away.

 

[JulienW]

A lot of dreams for something that is many years away.

...and will likely require a different or augmented hardware suite. I think it is likely and will be happy with topping out at Level 3 with our cars.

 

[aronth5]

A lot of dreams for something that is many years away.

I agree on Robotaxi services but no reason FSD with drivers in the car couldn't happen first.

 

[daktari]

The proponents of Robotaxi and driverless cars often times fail to appreciate how much value FSD will have for owners who can be productive while sitting in the drivers seat. @S4RXTSTCS usage model is a great example that can drive significant FSD revenue for Tesla and should be much easier to get regulatory approval for then any driverless FSD business model since the technical challenges are less. Not sure why this doesn't get more traction and visibility by everyone. I guess Robotaxi services are just sexier.

Because people already does it, and have for ages, commuting on a bus, train or metro.

I would guess that most prefer to work in s silent office or from home instead of a cramped sport sedan in busy traffic (or public transport).

 

[aronth5]

Because people already does it, and have for ages, commuting on a bus, train or metro.

I would guess that most prefer to work in s silent office or from home instead of a cramped sport sedan in busy traffic (or public transport).

Except that many people in the US don't have access to public transportation.

 

[Knightshade]

Because people already does it, and have for ages, commuting on a bus, train or metro.

Certainly not in most of the US.

Based on the most recent data I can find, only 5% of US workers use public transit to/from work. And of that 5%, almost 3/4th of them are concentrated in just 7 large cities... and roughly 4/10 of those are in ONE city (NY).


Outside of a handful of large cities public transit is fairly rare, and generally terrible if it exists at all in the US

 

[daktari]

Certainly not in most of the US.

Based on the most recent data I can find, only 5% of US workers use public transit to/from work. And of that 5%, almost 3/4th of them are concentrated in just 7 large cities... and roughly 4/10 of those are in ONE city (NY).


Outside of a handful of large cities public transit is fairly rare, and generally terrible if it exists at all in the US

Are there any discussions on moving from a car based society to more public transit? In most of Europe, banning cars from city centres is a hot topic.

 

[JulienW]

Are there any discussions on moving from a car based society to more public transit? In most of Europe, banning cars from city centres is a hot topic.

In the US? We don't even let pesky subway stations stop us from driving in the city.

Fun Fact: This is the only subway (MARTA/Atlanta) station in the world located above a major highway (I85/I75).

EDIT: Also notice on the right of pic 1 and left of pic 2 what we LOVE in the US. Humongous parking decks. Pic 3: We love our cars SOOOOO much in the US we build 12 story high rise vending machines just to put our used cars for sale in.

Street level looking from right in pic above.

 

[Knightshade]

Are there any discussions on moving from a car based society to more public transit? In most of Europe, banning cars from city centres is a hot topic.

There's always plenty of discussions about it.

Just very little in the way of any action in that direction. Far too many monied interests in the other direction.

Also, the US is just vastly larger and more spread-out than any nation in Europe (or even the entire EU combined).

For context, most recent #s I can find has the US at just a bit over 800 vehicles per 1000 people... Over in the EU you're in the roughly 450-550 cars per 1000 people range for the most populous nations... though you get down in the ~350 range on the low end with a few and ~650 range on the high end with a few.
Outside of a few tiny countries (Monaco, San Marino, Liechtenstein, and Luxembourg- the first 2 of which are actually higher than the US the second two slightly lower) the only places with rates anywhere near the US are Australia and New Zealand.


And lastly, we just REALLY like owning cars. NYC, which is easily the best public transit in the US for a major city ( MTA has more stations than any other metro system in the world, has almost twice as many miles of track as any other North American system, and ridership is triple the next five largest American cities),...AND has insanely expensive parking, gas, and insurance rates and insanely bad traffic... STILL has a vehicle ownership rate of roughly 50% (and it spiked further during covid)....


This is part of why I don't buy the argument robotaxis make personal car ownership go away.

I think they probably make 2nd or 3rd cars in households mostly go away... and some much smaller % of 1st cars.... Plus, they give back mobility to those no longer able to drive themselves which is a great bonus. But get rid of personally owned cars? Not for a long time.

 

[terranx]

Are there any discussions on moving from a car based society to more public transit? In most of Europe, banning cars from city centres is a hot topic.

That would be hugely unpopular in the US. Most people wouldn’t be willing to put up with the inconvenience, myself included.

 

[JupiterMan]

This is part of why I don't buy the argument robotaxis make personal car ownership go away.

I think they probably make 2nd or 3rd cars in households mostly go away... and some much smaller % of 1st cars.... Plus, they give back mobility to those no longer able to drive themselves which is a great bonus. But get rid of personally owned cars? Not for a long time.

It will be interesting to see the adoption of this new market.

Of course, you have to also consider the cost savings side of the equation, when people get the choice of saving on their lease payments, maintenance and insurance this may offset some of that perceived inconvenience of not owning a car.

This would likely mean that there may be a split in early adoption based upon disposable income but also would particularly be relevant to the young, where they are not "giving up" something (as previously did not own a car ) and where costs are usually higher relative to income. It may also mean many simply will not bother to take the driving test to get a drivers license. Why go to all that expense and trouble?

 

[diplomat33]

Are there any discussions on moving from a car based society to more public transit? In most of Europe, banning cars from city centres is a hot topic.

It's never going to happen in the US because there too many interests against it. For one, Americans love our cars too much. We value too much the freedom that comes from owning a car and being able to go anywhere we want, anytime we want. Big cities have mass transit because there is limited space in cities that makes owning a car more difficult. But the vast majority of people live outside of city centers and they depend heavily on cars to go places. And of course automakers base their entire business model on our love of personal car ownership so they have every business interest to not get rid of cars. On a side note, this is why I believe Elon is full of BS when he says Tesla will stop selling cars once FSD is solved. Yeah right. Tesla will continue to sell cars because people love owning cars and it will continue to be a big money maker for Tesla. Tesla would be dumb to get rid of that source of income.

 

[Knightshade]

It will be interesting to see the adoption of this new market.

Of course, you have to also consider the cost savings side of the equation, when people get the choice of saving on their lease payments, maintenance and insurance this may offset some of that perceived inconvenience of not owning a car.

I think the NYC example is a great counterfactual to this argument.

On average NYC parking is >$500 a month. JUST for parking.

If THAT isn't discouraging car ownership I'm not sure "saving $50 on an annual oil change" will.