No its another lie meant to bolster PR and Marketing coverage. Elon is using the media again to push more "FSD is solved" narrative.
This is nonesense PR fluff.
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Elon: FSD Beta tweets
- Thread starter Terminator857
- Start date
No its another lie meant to bolster PR and Marketing coverage. Elon is using the media again to push more "FSD is solved" narrative.
This is nonesense PR fluff.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
"Regulatory approval" has been a repeated Elon talking point. When AP2 was released in 2016, the FSD order page implied that FSD only needed validation and regulatory approval. That was 7 years ago. And Tesla released many FSD sub features since 2016 with driver supervision and never needed any regulatory approval despite the page saying that releasing features would be dependent on regulatory approval. And Tesla released FSD beta (with supervision) without any regulatory approval.
The fact is Tesla could release V12 now with supervision without any regulatory approval. They would only need regulatory approval if they wanted to release V12 as "eyes off". And even then, they would only need regulatory approval in certain States. As discussed before, AV regulations in the US are State by State. Some States have strict regulations, others have none. In States like CA with stricter regulations, Tesla would need to get permits which would take years, as we've seen with Waymo and Cruise. It would not be a quick process. Tesla is not going to just release V12 and then get regulatory approval next month to remove supervision everywhere as Elon seems to think. It does not work that way. And Tesla could actually remove driver supervision on FSD beta now in certain States, without any regulatory approval. The real reason Tesla keeps driver supervision is because Tesla knows that FSD Beta is not yet safe enough without supervision. I suspect V12 will require driver supervision for awhile. IMO, Elon has fallen into the classic sunk cost fallacy: he would lose too much if he admitted the truth that full autonomy is still far off. So he doubles down even more on the line that Tesla is close to full autonomy.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Counterpoint, regulatory approval IS required to release FSD beta or v12 or many of the past iterations outside of the US. Europe has no FSD beta because it is not allowed, even supervised. Cause regulators dont trust the consumer basically. So the Tesla website texts are there for a reason."Regulatory approval" has been a repeated Elon talking point. When AP2 was released in 2016, the FSD order page implied that FSD only needed validation and regulatory approval. That was 7 years ago. And Tesla released many FSD sub features since 2016 with driver supervision and never needed any regulatory approval despite the page saying that releasing features would be dependent on regulatory approval. And Tesla released FSD beta (with supervision) without any regulatory approval.
The fact is Tesla could release V12 now with supervision without any regulatory approval. They would only need regulatory approval if they wanted to release V12 as "eyes off". And even then, they would only need regulatory approval in certain States. As discussed before, AV regulations in the US are State by State. Some States have strict regulations, others have none. In States like CA with stricter regulations, Tesla would need to get permits which would take years, as we've seen with Waymo and Cruise. It would not be a quick process. Tesla is not going to just release V12 and then get regulatory approval next month to remove supervision everywhere as Elon seems to think. It does not work that way. And Tesla could actually remove driver supervision on FSD beta now in certain States, without any regulatory approval. The real reason Tesla keeps driver supervision is because Tesla knows that FSD Beta is not yet safe enough without supervision. I suspect V12 will require driver supervision for awhile. IMO, Elon has fallen into the classic sunk cost fallacy: he would lose too much if he admitted the truth that full autonomy is still far off. So he doubles down even more on the line that Tesla is close to full autonomy.
Otherwise I agree with your post.
In other words, I listed to Elon (which I constantly admonish others to not do) and paid the price of trying to find a signal among white noise. Hallucinations commenced.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
When it comes to regulatory approval, we don't need to rely on Elon's word. Regulators like the CA DMV or NHTSA make all their permits and rulings public. For example, you can go to the CA DMV website and see who has autonomous or driverless permits or look up the CA DMV disengagement reports to see how many autonomous or driverless miles each company has reported. When Cruise sought regulatory approval from NHTSA to deploy their Origin vehicle, they submitted an application. Cruise says final approval is coming in days. When it happens, we will be able to read that ruling. My point being that if/when Tesla seeks regulatory approval, we will be able to read about it publicly, it won't be some mystery. And when Tesla shows us a prototype of a driverless robotaxi and writes a letter to NHTSA to get approval, then we will know that they are serious. Until then, it seems like the Tesla robotaxi is lot of vaporware to me.
DanCar
Active Member
Elon stating the obvious that a lot of compute is needed for video training.
DanCar
Active Member
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Wayve would disagree. They use LLM to create a vision-language-action AI model that can generate text to explain its driving and answer questions.
Being able to communicate with the system would be nice especially when things aren't making sense or occupants need to change navigation etc. I'm sure they would eventually use voice to text interface for hands free.
It's nice to see so many different design paths. Said another way, there so much context and complexity to automated consumer driving, I can't imagine end to end NNs or pure vision ever being an optimal solution.
DanCar
Active Member
Lol at "the concept of lanes is only loosely built in". That is very obvious every time I navigate well-marked multi-lane roads.
Awesome news! This will expedite the inevitable legal action, by 'selling' an unfinished product.
DanCar
Active Member
I think this is just selected Tesla employees and not "real people". So expanded testing but not available FSD Beta.
I always expected there to be additional modules created for this type of stuff
What's being beta-tested right now is really "Autosteer on City Streets", what about "Autosteer on Rural Roads"? There are driving dynamics that are pretty specific to gravel versus asphalt, from differences in how you accelerate/brake to not speeding past someone because you don't want to shoot rocks at them to winter driving on gravel to undulations in the gravel that can be created by heavy traffic and will send you flying if you're not ready for it.
I'd think the system would need to identify these roads and treat them as such, not just go forward because it has a loose concept of lanes built into it.
Would be curious to see how the system would handle an oncoming car on this road
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
Not an Elon tweet, but a Tesla one:
Disclaimer at the start says it's V11. But it's definitely running in "Elon mode" with no steering wheel torque required.
Disclaimer at the start says it's V11. But it's definitely running in "Elon mode" with no steering wheel torque required.
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